Today on AgDay
Nov. 30, 2015
USDA REVISING FARM INCOME -- MOVES NOT SEEN SINCE THE 80'S.
PLUS, THE DAIRY INDUSTRY GETS PROACTIVE ABOUT ANIMAL CARE.
IN AGRIBUSINESS...A DEEPER LOOK AT ARGENTINA'S ELECTIONS.
SO WITH THIS FRESH LIGHT COMING IN, WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE THEM COME BACK IN TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER FOR CORN EXPORTS AND MEET THE PIANO MAN OF THE PLAINS.
Striking declines in Farm Income Outlook:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THE AG DEPARTMENT REVISING ITS FARM INCOME OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AND IT REVEALS SOME STRIKING DECLINES...REACHING LOWS LAST SEEN IN THE 1980'S.
USDA'S ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE SAYS BOTH NET CASH AND NET FARM INCOME ARE FORECAST TO DECLINE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR. YOU CAN SEE THERE THE ROLLER COASTER SLIDE DOWNWARD AFTER PEAKING IN 2013.
NET CASH INCOME IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY NEARLY 28 PERCENT.
NET FARM INCOME IS FORECASTED TO SEE AN EVEN MORE DRAMATIC SLIDE OF 38-PERCENT.
USDA SAYS THAT WOULD BE THE LARGEST SINGLE YEAR DECLINE SINCE 1983.
CROP RECEIPTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 8 POINTS- EVEN PERCENT WHILE LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS COULD FALL BY TWELVE PERCENT.
"My advice is to make your sacrifices. concentrate on what's important and withstand the downturn in the market because there will be an evidible turn to profitability."
PERHApS ONE BRIGHT NOTE -FUEL AND OIL EXPENSES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BY OVER 28 PERCENT.
A LOOK AT THE EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY PROVIDES INSIGHTS INTO THE 2015 FARM ECONOMY.
JOHN DEERE RELEASING IT'S FULL YEAR FINANCIALS. THE EQUPIMENT MAKER SAYS WORLD WIDE NET SALES WERE DOWN 20 PERCENT IN FISCAL YEAR 2015.
THE AG AND TURF DIVISION SAW SALES FALL 25 PERCENT. OVERALL, NET INCOME WAS DOWN MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS.
IT EXPECTS ANOTHER 7 PERCENT DECLINE IN SALES NEXT YEAR.
Hog producers see more global competition:
WHILE LEAN HOGS HAVE SEEN THEIR SHARE OF VOLATILITY IN RECENT MONTHS, THE U.S. MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS AMERICAN PRODUCERS ARE GETTING MORE COMPETITION IN GLOBAL MARKETS.
THE U.S. MEF SAYS EVEN IN THE FACE OF LOWER PRICES...THE E-U CONTINUES TO INCREASE PRODUCTION--WITH NUMBERS UP 3 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR.
THAT'S IN SPITE OF A RUSSIAN BAN ON E-U PORK. EXPORT OFFICIALS SAY MORE OF THAT PRODUCT IS GOING TO ASIA....DIRECTLY COMPETING WITH THE U.S. WITH THE CELEBRATION OF HARVEST NOW IN THE TAILLIGHTS OF 2015, THE AG INDUSTRY IS LOOKING FORWARD TO A NEW YEAR.
AND WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN, MANY OF THE SAME CHALLENGES WILL CARRY ON.
FOR LIVESTOCK OWNERS ONE OF THOSE ISSUES IS KEEPING UP WITH OUTSIDE DEMAND FOR ANIMAL WELFARE AND HUSBANDRY PRACTICES.
FARM program helps to improve dairy farms:
THAT'S ONE REASON THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IS WORKING TO BE PROACTIVE RATHER THAN REACTIVE.
cows are the number one commodity on a dairy. to be successful with a dairy farm you're paying attention to your animals. Everyone knows this.
WHILE FARMERS MAY KNOW, THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IS SETTING OUT TO PROVE IT THROUGH ITS FARM PROGRAM--AN ACRONYMN FOR FARMERS ASSURING RESPONSIBLE MANAGEMENT.
the real purpose of the FARM program is to demonstrate to consumers that the practices engaged in on america's dairy farms is providing the highest quality of animal care so that people aren't concerned about where their milk came from how it was produced. 33:02
THE FARM PROGRAM COMES WITH A SET OF ANIMAL CARE GUIDELINES, A REFERENCE MANUAL THAT HAS TO BE FOLLOWED FOR EVERY CALF AND COW--IT DETAILS PROCEDURES FOR THINGS LIKE BIRTHING, HOUSING AND FACILITIES, NUTRITION AND MILKING...ALL BASED ON THE LATEST RESEARCH IN HIGH QUALITY ANIMAL CARE.
and for the most part, all of these practices are what farmers are normal doing anyway. 58:37
PRACTICES THAT ARE THEN VERIFIED BY AN ON FARM THIRD PARTY INSPECTION...ONCE EVERY THREE YEARS.
we have 52 different metrics different things we're measuring in the program and what we see in the program is very high levels of animal care across the country.
in most metrics we're in the 85-90 range with adherance to those practices that's a great story to tell and it's one that's consumers are not hearing in the consumer media.
THOSE THINGS THAT DON'T MEET THE STANDARD ARE THEN MARKED FOR IMPROVEMENT. then if there is a problem they point that out and in some cases the farmers didn't even realize that what they were doing isn’t up to industry standards. so they've actually thanked evaluators that okay we can do better and a lot of times its just a cheap fix.
SO FAR THE FARM PROGRAM HAS DONE ROUGHLY 34THOUSAND ON FARM EVALUATIONS SINCE THE FARM PROGRAM BEGAN....AND ENROLLMENT CONTINUES TO We now have 93 percent of the U.S. milk supply shipping to coops and proprietary processors that are enrolled in the farm program. i think that's probably the broadest coverage of any animal care program in agriculture.
and we can document to retailers and consumers that farmers are indeed doing the right thing.
THE FARM PROGRAM ITSELF CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE SCIENCE AND ISSUES DEMAND IT. EARLY NEXT YEAR THE NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION WILL BE ROLLING OUT VERSION 3 POINT 0--AND THOSE NEW STANDARD WILL START BEING EVALUATED IN JANUARY OF 2017.
the fact is we do have people paying attention to what's going on on the farm. 52:00 we're in a world where people care about where their food comes from. we tout that we're the source of that food so we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard.
ONE THING THAT WILL CHANGE IN THE NEW VERSION-TAIL DOCKING.
AS A GROUP THE INDUSTRY--THROUGH NMPF--HAS DECIDED TO PHASE OUT ROUTINE TAIL DOCKING OF COWS WHEN THE NEW STANDARDS TAKE EFFECT IN 2017.
LETS SEE HOW A FEW OF THE LATE HARVESTING CROPS ARE FINISHING UP.
FOR THAT WE TURN TO METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN...WITH TODAY'S CROPWATCH.
GOOD MORNING WE BEGIN CROPWATCH IN FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STATE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS THE ONLY CROP LEFT IN THE FIELD IS SUNFLOWERS.
AND 95 PERCENT OF THE CROP HAS BEEN HARVESTED.THAT'S SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. JUST FOUR STATES GROW MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S SUNFLOWERS.
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA, COLORADO AND KANSAS.
AND IN TAYLOR COUNTY TEXAS, THE PECAN CROP IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE YEAR.
THE COUNTY EXTENSION AGENT, ROBERT PRITZ TELLING K-T-X-S THE YEAR STARTED OFF GREAT BUT A DRY STRETCH THROUGH THE SUMMER REALLY PUT THE TREES UNDER STRESS.
FOLKS WITHOUT ACCESS TO IRRIGATION WATER SAW YIELDS TAKE A HIT.
ADDING THAT A GOOD CROP WAS ALMOST A GREAT CROP.
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE JET STREAM AS YOU CAN SEE WE STILL HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE WEST THAT COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK I’LL HAVE YOUR WEEK LONG FORECAST AND YOUR LONG RANGE OUT LOOK COMING UP.
El Nino rains likely to hurt sugarcane crop:
The first of 50 Cuban sugar mills open this week with a dimmed outlook. Reuters reports El Nino rains will likely hurt the sugarcane crop in the island nation. Sugarcane needs to dry down before harvesting and the rains are preventing that.
Cuban sugar producers dealt with drought through August brought on by El Nino, and now Cuban forecasters say El Nino will result in more humid weather and rainfall than normal during the harvest. Cuba produced 1.9 million tons of raw sugar during the last harvest which ended in May. An October estimate of cane found there was around 10 percent less tonnage available for milling than planned. Cuba consumes between 600,000 and 700,000 tons of sugar a year and has an agreement to sell China 400,000 tons annually.
STILL TO COME, WE'LL BREAK DOWN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO GLOBAL GRAIN MARKETS BASED ON RECENT ARGENTINA ELECTIONS.
PLUS MEET A SELF-TAUGHT MUSICIAN FROM NORTH DAKOTA WHO COULD HAVE BEEN THE INSPIRATION FOR BILLY JOEL'S HIT SONG "PIANO MAN". DETAILS WHEN WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
Here at the AgriBusiness Desk our guest today Dustin Johnson, with E. Hedger. Dustin, let's talk about those Argentine elections, pretty big deal for the country there, but could be a bigger deal for the world grain export market if some things change and we start seeing more grain.> Absolutely, I think the short term implications are going to be very interesting. The 30, 60, 90 day window when we see what kind of soybean export incentives are going to be in place. The jist of it is going to be need based, what the central bank reserves are. He won't know that...this is the new president elect. He won't know until he gets into office. So once he does and it's after December 10, we should start to see shortly after that some sort of plan laid out. Maybe to raise that inflow and that would be probably more bearish than the markets already priced in. But a lot of it has been priced into the market at this point and we are near the contract low. I do think that it's going to be interesting in the short term. On the long term..> Right, longer term. At one point they were one of the largest exporters in the world, right?> Yeah, for corn absolutely. Their ground for growing corn is much better than it is for Brazil. Not necessarily for the U.S., but they have been disincentivized by very low prices, high export taxes and just basically poor government policy, very bad agro business practices as a result. So with this fresh light coming in, we could definitely see them come back in to be a major player for corn exports, which would be one more competitor to deal with so that goes to my point about maybe long term this is not a great thing for corn. You are seeing farm doc and those pricing out real low prices all the way out to 2019. I don't necessarily want to take that long of a view, but I'm just thinking it's not a great outlook, when you are starting to see us being not the low cost producer any more, other countries that are coming in and competing hot. > Real quick. There are a few things could hinder grain coming out of that country, right, like infrastructure? Yeah, the exporter and crushers will be pushing back quite a bit on this very short term window for soybean tariffs. The soybean tariff bean dropped all together for a time being, so that might hinder how much grain gets pushed out. But there are five hundred million bushels of beans extra in Argentina than there are in Brazil as of September in stock so that would be way too much for the market to handle if it came in a short window.> All right well, something will be watching, I'm sure of the next few weeks. Thanks, Dustin. We will be back with more AgDay in just a minute.
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY I HOPE EVERYBODY HAD A NICE THANKSGIVING AND A NICE WEEKEND AFTERWARDS I KNOW LOTS OF FOLKS WERE HEADING HOME TO VISIT FAMILY AND HOPEFULLY HAVE SOME GOOD TIMES THERE STILL A CUTOFF LOW THIS ONES BEEN THERE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS NOW IN THE WEST WITH A TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND ANYTIME YOU GET A CUTOFF THAT KIND OF PUTS SOME WRINKLES INTO THE FORECAST THE MODELS NEVER HAVE A REAL GOOD IDEA ON EXACTLY WHENT THAT CUT OFF TROUGH IS GOING TO LEAVE AND KIND OF BLEND IN WITH THE REST OF THE JET STREAM SO LET'S PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK THE MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY DO QUICKLY BLENDS IT IN AND THAT MIGHT HAPPEN THAT WAY EITHER WAY WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE KIND OF A STORMY SITUATION AS WE HEAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK BUT NOT THE WHOLE WEEK AND YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD TO THE WEEKEND WELL OUR MODEL IS SHOWING A RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT THAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM UP AND ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND THAT WOULD BE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST SO AT LEAST WE ARE GETTING STORM SYSTEMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WEEK'S TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO NEBRASKA ALL THE WAY BACK TO OREGON ABOVE NORMAL FOR FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES AND ALSO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH EAST AS FAR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED ALSO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES INCLUDING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WESTERN NEVADA WHICH IS GOOD NEWS BELOW NORMAL FROM THE DAKOTAS MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FOUR CORNER REGION HERE'S THE LONGER RANGE OUT LOOK WE'LL GO MONTH BY MONTH HERE DECEMBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WELL AS ALL OF THE NORTH EAST SAME THING IN SOUTH FLORIDA BELOW NORMAL FROM MISSISSIPPI BACK TO THE FOUR CORNER REGION SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS FAR JANUARY TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WE'LL EXPAND THAT BELOW NORMAL AREA A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS YOU CAN SEE THERE AND ON TO FEBRUARY WE GO WE'LL GO BELOW NORMAL FROM THE FOUR CORNER REGION ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AND THEN THE EAST COAST ALL THE WAY UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE'LL EXPAND THAT BELOW A LITTLE BIT FARTHER EAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH WINTER AND KIND OF SHRINK THE ABOVE NORMAL AREA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST AS FAR AS THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION KIND OF A TYPICAL EL NINO WINTER WITH ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH EAST AND UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FROM MICHIGAN WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTH WEST THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS FIRST OF ALL FOR OLYMPIA WASHINGTON MOSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY HIGH OF 41 DEGREES DEL RIO TEXAS PARTLY TO MOST CLOUDY HIGH AROUND 64 AND HOUGHTEN LAKE MICHIGAN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHER AROUND 38
MACHINERY PETE JOINS US NEXT--FOR HIS WEEKLY LOOK AT EQUIPMENT MARKETS AND AUCTIONS.
AND LATER WE'RE HEADED OUT TO NORTH DAKOTA TO HEAR THE SWEET SOUNDS OF IVORY--THE TUNES OF THE PIANO MAN, TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY.
GREG PETERSON HAS SPENT A LOT OF TIME AT AUCTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES.
AND HE SAYS THERE ARE FEW THINGS YOU CAN COUNT ON...
Well, every auction is the same story folks. There are always a few items to tell on the high side and some that are bargains. The perfect example, was a farm auction last Thursday in northeast Iowa and on the high side we had this John Deere 1760 12R-30 planter, that had planted under 1000 total acres and that sold for $57,000 bucks and that's the second highest auction price I have ever seen on a 1760 twelve row. Now, same sale had this 1995 Case IH 5250 tractor, mechanical front wheel drive tractor, 3,494, sold for $50,000--well, that's actually a new record high price that I have seen on a 5250. Now, same sale, much better buy on the combine, this 2011, Case I-H, 6088, with 776 engine hours, sold for $138,500, so a little softer sale price there. And I would compare that to one that sold for earlier this year on an auction in southeast Minnesota that was two years older, had 260 more engine hours on it and that one when for 141. So remember folks, when it comes time to finding and valuing your next piece of used equipment, check us out at Machinery Pete.com.
UP NEXT A MUSICAL INTERLUDE FROM A RURAL PIANO MAN.
In the country:
FOLKS WHO ARE IN THE MOOD FOR A MELODY KNOW WHERE TO GO FIND NORTH DAKOTA'S PIANO MAN.
HE'S PERFORMED AT A BAR IN A SMALL RURAL TOWN FOR THE BETTER HALF OF A CENTURY.
CLIFF NAYLOR INTRODUCES US TO AN AGELESS ENTERTAINER.
Orville Speten has devoted decades and decades of his life to music.
Joe Madche, Bismarck, ND -He's good, he's a good player. The Sportsmens Bar reserves a piano stool for Orville whenever he wanders in. Every now and then someone in the crowd chimes in.
Georgia Bedwell, Bismarck, ND -I've actually gone up with him and sang with him a couple of times and do some Andrews Sister Music with him.
This seasoned soloist has an immense play list. Lynette Clausen, Wilton, ND: Any waltz, German, Norwegian, Swedish, he knows them all. Kayla Speten, Las Vegas, NV: His musical talents are absolutely phenomenal and it's even more impressive that he doesn't know how to read notes, he does it all by ear.
Nat sound of music.....
Orville Speten, Wilton, ND; Don't know a note Orville has been playing by ear since 1933.
Bernie Stolz, Baldwin, ND: I hope I can do that when I'm his age.
He started orchestrating music his dad who played fiddled. Now this veteran prodigy performs all over town. Lynette Clausen, Wilton, ND: He plays in church, he plays at the senior center, he plays at the nursing home. Orville has six children, thirteen grandkids and seventeen great grandchildren. He's inspired a love of music in most of them. Karen Mund, Wilton, ND: When us kids were real little we would dance around in the dining room and he's the one who inspired us to learn how to dance because he has rhythm, so he taught us rhythm.
His kids still dance to the beat of his fingers. Nat sound of bunny hop..... If you haven't done the math yet, Orville is almost a century old. Rachel Roehrich, Wilton, ND: He's a 25-year old in a 95-year old body.
He's got a simple strategy for staying young.
Nathan Speten, Wilton, ND: He always says, you better use it or lose it.
Orville Speten, Wilton, ND: Use it our lose it don't ya know. Orville also plays a mean harmonica and guitar. Nat sound of music.......
Making music with his mouth and strings is what Orville hopes to be remembered for.
Orville Speten, Wilton, ND: Nobody plays the harmonica and guitar at my age.
He plans to get in the Guiness Book of World Records for being the oldest person to play those instruments.
Orville Speten, Wilton, ND; Then Wilton will be on the map when I'm gone.
Setting a world record is the only thing left on his bucket list. Nat sound of harmonica...
Orville doesn't need to accomplish that goal to be appreciated. He's an inspiration to almost everyone who meets him. Carol Joers, Wilton, ND: He's like the Eveready Rabbit, he just keeps going and going.
That comparison doesn't include playing a drum. At his age, he's sticking with what has worked the past 95-years.
Nat sound of clapping........
I'm Cliff Naylor reporting for AgDay.)
ORVILLE JUST TURNED 96 LAST MONDAY. HE JUST RENEWED HIS DRIVERS LICENSE AND SAYS IT'S GOOD UNTIL HE TURNS 100. THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
TUESDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL LOOK DAIRY MARKETS IN OUR WEEKLY DAIRY TODAY REPORT. PLUS MIKE
HOFFMAN HAS YOUR FARM COUNTRY FORECAST. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.