AgDay Daily Recap -November 11, 2014

November 11, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 11, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY USDA PUTS A NUMBER ON THE SIZE OF AMERICA'S HARVEST...REACTION FROM THE INDUSTRY. PLUS, HOW MUCH IS LEFT TO CUT...EVEN AS WINTER WEATHER BEARS DOWN ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MICHIGAN SUGAR BEET GROWERS RACE AGAINST THE ELEMENTS....DOESN'T MATTER IF IT'S MAY OR OCTOBER. THE LONGER THEY'RE IN THE GROUND, THE MORE SUGAR THEY PRODUCE. IN AGRIBUSINESS...TIPS FOR RESTRUCTURING DEBT. AND REMEMBERING AMERICA'S HEROS THIS VETERANS DAY WITH A GLIMPSE INTO AVIATION'S PAST. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
USDA REPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. BEFORE WE GET TO THE BUSINESS OF CROP AND GRAIN REPORTS, WE WANT TO TAKE A MOMENT TO SAY "THANK YOU" TO THE MEN AND WOMEN OF THIS COUNTRY WHO HAVE SERVED - AND CONTINUE TO SERVE - IN THE ARMED FORCES. YOUR VALOR, SACRIFICES AND DEDICATION TO OUR NATION ARE NOT TAKEN FORGRANTED...AND NOW WE TURN TO OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY....AND THAT'S THE LATEST CROP PRODUCTION REPORT FROM USDA.
CROP PRODUCTION:
CLINTON....THE AG DEPARTMENT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM ITS OCTOBER REPORT - CUTTING CORN A BIT AND INCREASING THE SOY CROP.
GRAIN STOX:
WITH LOWER CORN PRODUCTION FIGURES, USDA ALSO THEN DECREASED THE SUPPLY. ENDING STOCKS WERE TRIMMED BY 73 MILION BUSHELS TO JUST OVER TWO BILLION.
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS REMAINED UNCHANGED AT 450 MILLION BUSHELS. THERE WERE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND CATEGORIES.
CROP PROGRESS:
THANKS BETSY....AFTER A BIG WEEK IN THE COMBINE, U-S CORN HARVEST IS NOW EVEN WITH THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. 80-PERCENT IS HARVESTED. STATE'S IN THE GUNSIGHT OF THE EXPECTED STORM THIS WEEK - LIKE WISCONSIN - ONLY HALF OF THE STATE'S CORN CROP IS HARVESTED. MINNESOTA IS 90-PERCENT. NORTH DAKOTA IS THREE QUARTERS. SOYBEAN HARVEST IS IN THE HOMESTRETCH WITH 90-PERCENT NOW IN THE BIN, JUST A POINT BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. SUNFLOWER HARVEST IS ON TARGET AT 70-PERCENT, BUT THAT DOES LITTLE FOR FARMERS IN THE DAKOTAS WHO ARE FACING SNOW THIS WEEK.
MIDWEST SHOW:
FARMERS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS TO MICHIGAN WILL BE DEALING WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW AND COLD MOVING ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SOME OF THOSE REGIONS ARE STILL HARVESTING. ACCORDING TO OUR AFFILIATE IN ROCHESTER MINNESOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES ARE ONLY EXPECTING ONE-TO-THREE INCHES OF SNOW. BUT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DIP FARTHER SOUTH. LET'S CHECK IN NOW WITH MIKE HOFFMAN, MIKE.
SUGARBEET HARVEST:
ANOTHER CROP THAT'S IN JEOPARDY FROM THIS COLD AND SNOWY BLAST IS THE REMAINING SUGAR BEET CROP IN MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE CROP HAS ALREADY BEEN HARVESTED. FARMERS ARE RACING AGAINST THE CLOCK AND THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THE STATE'S TOP BEET PROCESSOR WON'T ACCEPT FROZEN BEETS AS THE CROP IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIDE WEATHER SWINGS.
TEASE:
WITH LOWER GRAIN PRICES, IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO RE-FINANCE SOME OF YOUR DEBT? WE'LL TAKE A LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS. THE DAIRY INDUSTRY WANTS TO HAVE A SEAT AT THE TABLE WHEN LAWMAKERS NEGOTIATE IMMIGRATION.
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO JIM MENTOR HE'S FROM PURDUE UNIVERSITY HE'S THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE JIM I'M GOING TO ASK YOU A QUESTION AND THERE'S NO QUICK ANSWER BUT WHAT IS THE MOST PROMINENT ISSUE FACING THE AMERICAN FARMER THAT OWNS LAND AND FARMING TODAY? I THINK WHAT PEOPLE NEED TO DO IS REALLY GET THEIR FINICAL HOUSE IN ORDER NOW WHILE THERE'S STILL IN A RELATIVELY STRONG POSITION YOU KNOW A LOT OF FARMERS IN RECENT YEARS HAVE MADE A LOT OF CHANGES IN THEIR OPERATIONS IN PARTICULAR A LOT OF PEOPLE PURCHASED SOME CAPITOL ASSETS IN SOME CASES LAND IN SOME CASES SOME LONG TERM INVESTMENTS IN OTHER FACILITIES GRAIN SYSTEMS ETCETERA AND A LOT OF THAT WAS DONE WITH RELATIVITY SHORT TERM DEBT AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS PEOPLE SHOULD LOOK AT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PERHAPS REFINANCING THAT DEBT ON LONGER REPAYMENT TERMS THE OTHER THING IS IF YOU HAVE CASH PRESERVE IT  OTHER WORD PROTECT YOUR WORKING CAPITAL REALLY GET READY FOR WHAT COULD BE SOME CHALLENGING TIMES NOT JUST IN 15 BUT REALLY LOOKING OUT AT 15 16 17 IN RECENT YEARS YOU COULD FINANCE SOME LONG TERM PURCHASES WITH SOME SHORT TERM DEBT AND GET AWAY WITH IT BECAUSE WE HAD SUCH STRONG CASH FLOWS THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS.  SO WITHOUT THE STRONG CASH FLOWS ARE GUYS GOING TO BE ABLE TO STAY IN BUSINESS. THEY ARE IF THEY'RE READY FOR IT AND I GUESS REALLY THE ISSUE IS TO GET READY NOW PARTICULARLY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE REFINANCING DEBT IF YOU WORK WITH A LENDER NOW WHILE YOUR BALANCE SHEET IS STILL PRETTY STRONG YOUR FINANCIAL POSITION OVERALL IS STILL PRETTY STRONG YOU'LL FIND LENDERS RELATIVELY INTERESTED IN WORKING WITH YOU IN TERMS OF REFINANCING DEBT IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU'RE IN A POSITION A YEAR OR TWO FROM NOW WHERE YOU'RE HAVING TROUBLE MAKING PAYMENTS AND THAT LOAN IS IN TROUBLE A LOT OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ARE GOING TO BE RELUCTANT TO WORK WITH YOU IN THAT KIND OF ENVIRONMENT PARTICULARLY THE TIGHTER REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT THAT THE BANKS THEMSELVES ARE FACING. THE ANSWER IS YOU NEED TO GET STARTED AND GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS COLD SHOT OF AIR THAT'S REALLY COMING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. IT'S EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT'S NOT JANUARY OR FEBRUARY WORTHY BUT NONETHELESS, WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THAT MAP. SNOW CONTINUES TO FLY NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF IOWA BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. YOU CAN SEE FROM THE COLD FRONT, THERE'S NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE. JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THAT FRONT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY... YOU CAN SEE LATER ON TODAY, THE COLD FRONT IS IN WESTERN OHIO AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THAT. STORM SYSTEMS IN THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS WELL BUT A LOT OF THAT STAYS OFFSHORE. THIS IS EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND IT DIVES INTO THE PLAINS AS ARCTIC OUTBREAKS TYPICALLY DO. THIS ONE CONTINUES TO MOVE THAT WAY. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS WE MOVE INTO TOMORROW MORNING, A MAIN DOME MOVES THAT PRESSURE IN. WE HAVE A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SO YOU MAY SEE SOME SNOW FLYING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. IN THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WE WILL SEE SOME DECENT SNOWS IN WYOMING AND EVENTUALLY INTO COLORADO AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY. THERE'S THE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOURS. NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WILL GET THE MOST. ADD ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WE WILL SEE A LOT OF THAT MOVE INTO CANADA. THIS SYSTEM MIGHT NOT HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO IT, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT SNOWFALL, IT PUTS DOWN SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS. SOME OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF MICHIGAN. THEY WILL END UP WITH A FOOT OF SNOW. THAT'S FAIRLY WET SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS YOU CAN SEE WITH THE MOISTURE, IT'S NOT REAL WET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT AMOUNTS FOR THE UPPER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…LAST WEEK, WE DIDN'T SEE ANYTHING ON THIS MAP BECAUSE THERE WASN'T ANY SNOW. LOOK AT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE SEEING SINGLE DIGITS IN PARTS OF MONTANA. THAT'S WHERE THE COLD AIR COMES IN FIRST. STILL 70'S IN THE SOUTHEAST, 80 IN SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BELOW 0 IN THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS, 30'S ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS THE CORN BELT WITH LOTS OF 40'S. THERE'S THE JET STREAM BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR. THE COLDEST AIR COMES INTO THE QUICK SHOT. THAT'S AN EVEN COLDER SHOT OF AIR COMING INTO THE WEEKEND, IN TO NEXT WEEK. GET USED TO THE COLD IN THE MIDWEST. IT'S HERE FOR A WHILE. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO GILLETTE, WYOMING. FIRST OF ALL BREEZY AND COLD AREAS OF SNOW...THAT'S NOT A MISPRINT…THAT'S A HIGH OF 8, LOW OF -12 TONIGHT. IN BRADY, TEXAS, IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY AND COLD, WITH A HIGH OF 52 AND FALLING. PIATT LAKE MICHIGAN IS BREEZY AND COLDER WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH IS 45.
DTR DAIRY EXPORTS:
MEANWHILE THE DAIRY EXPORT COUNCIL SAYS WORLD DEVELOPMENTS ARE STARTING TO LIMIT U.S. SHIPMENTS. IN SEPTEMBER DAIRY EXPORTS FELL 16 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR....TO 137 THOUSAND TONS OF MILK POWDERS, CHEESE, BUTTERFAT, WHEY AND LACTOSE. THAT'S THE LOWEST MONTHLY VOLUME IN 18 MONTHS. THE EXPORT COUNCIL SAYS THE REASONS INCLUDE INCREASED SUPPLY FROM EUROPE OCEANIA REGIONS, SLOWER BUYING FROM CHINA AND THE EXPORT BAN BY RUSSIA. YEAR TO DATE OVERALL EXPORTS ARE UP 14 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2013.

 

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