AgDay Daily Recap -November 17, 2014

November 17, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 17, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - A CROSS BOARDER OIL PIPELINE TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN HOUSE DURING THE LAME DUCK SESSION OF CONGRESS. WILL THE SENATE FOLLOW. PLUS, NEW BORDER SURVEILENCE MEASURES ARE GETTING MIXED REVIEWS FROM RANCHERS IN ARIZONA. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WILD MARKETS MAY MEAN LESS PROTECTION FOR FARMERS. MACHINERY PETE HAS TIPS FOR FARMERS THINKING ABOUT SELLING AT AN UPCOMING AUCTION. AND DAIRY WITH A KICK THANKS TO THIS WISCONSIN BEVERAGE MAKER. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
EIA OIL SHIPMENTS:
ACCORDING TO NEW DATA FROM THE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, SO FAR IN 2014, OIL SHIPMENTS VIA RAIL ARE UP 13 PERCENT. MORE THAN 670-THOUSAND TANK CARS THROUGH OCTOBER. HOWEVER, OIL IS NOT THE COMMODITY WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN SHIPMENTS. CARLOADS OF GRAIN ARE UP 15 PERCENT ON THE YEAR AT NEARLY 880-THOUSAND LOADS. WITH THIS YEAR'S RECORD CROP AND BACKLOG CONCERNS, IN OCTOBER, THE U.S. D-O-T BEGAN REQUIRING ALL FREIGHT RAIL CARRIERS FILE WEEKLY UPDATES ON DELIVERIES OF GOODS AND COMMODITIES.
RAIL REPORT CARD:
THE NATION'S BIGGEST RAILWAYS MAY HAVE TO ATTEND "SUMMER SCHOOL" AFTER RECEIVING THEIR REPORT CARD FROM THE SOY TRANSPORTATION COALITION. THE GRADE IS BASED ON SURVEYS COMPLETED BY GRAIN SHIPPERS. THEY RATE THE RAIL CARRIERS IN SEVERAL CATEGORIES, INCLUDING "ON-TIME" DELIVERIES, CUSTOMER SERVICE AND COST. THE S-T-C SAYS GRAIN HANDLERS EXPRESSED VERY UNFAVORABLE OPINIONS ON THE STATE OF RAIL SERVICE THIS PAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE SCORES WERE 14-PERCENT LOWER IN 2014 THAN IN 2013. IN THE OVERALL RATINGS, UNION PACIFIC TOPPED THE LIST.
GM SUIT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - MONSANTO AND DOW AGROSCIENCES ARE FOLLOWING THROUGH WITH THEIR PLAN TO SUE MAUI COUNTY, HAWAII OVER ITS G-M-O-CULTIVATION BAN. THE COMPANIES FILED SUIT IN FEDERAL COURT. THEY'RE ASKING A JUDGE TO IMMEDIATELY PREVENT THE LAW FROM TAKING EFFECT. COUNTY VOTERS NARROWLY PASSED A BALLOT INITIATIVE TWO WEEKS AGO THAT IMPOSES THE BAN.
JBS EARINGS:
THE WORLD'S LARGEST MEAT PRODUCER POSTED RECORD QUARTERLY PROFITS. JBS SAYS SURGING CATTLE PRICES AND LOWER FEED COSTS ARE HELPING THE BOTTOM LINE. NET INCOME TOPPED 480 MILLION DOLLARS....THAT'S COMPARED TO NEARLY 85 MILLION A YEAR AGO. THAT JUMP IN INCOME WASN'T JUST IN CATTLE MARKETS...IT'S PILGRIMS PRIDE DIVISION ALSO HAVING A BANNER QUARTER WITH EARNINGS UP 95 PERCENT.
CME REPORT:
IT WAS A MIXED DAY TO END THE MARKETING WEEK. WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME FOR DETAILS ON FRIDAY'S CLOSE.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
RECENT RALLIES IN COMMODITIES HAVE MANY FARMERS AND TRADERS SCRATCHING THEIR HEADS. AS FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL FOUND OUT, THE RECENT RISE MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE A GOOD THING FOR ALL FARMERS.
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO MARK GOLD TOP THIRD AG MARKETING MARK LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THIS UNUSUAL RALLY THAT WE EXPERIENCED AND I'M GOING TO ASK YOU IF HOW'S THAT GOING TO AFFECT THE INSURANCE THAT THE FARMERS ARE COUNTING ON?  WELL CERTAINLY WE'VE SEEN FROM OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF NOVEMBER THIS MARKET RALLY SIGNIFICANTLY IT'S BEEN A RALLY BASED NOT ON INCREASED DEMAND OR DEMAND THAT'S NEW IT'S BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE CAN'T GET THE MEAL TO WHERE IT'S NEEDED WE HAVE THE BASIC DEMAND ONLY IT CAN'T BE SATISFIED BECAUSE OF THE RAIL SITUATION. DISTRIBUTION IS THE PROBLEM. DISTRIBUTION LOGISTICS HAS BEEN A PROBLEM SO WE'VE TAKEN MEAL FROM A CONTRACT LOW TO NEAR A CONTRACT HIGH IN THE SAME MONTH OF OCTOBER I DON'T THAT WE'VE EVER DONE THAT WITH ANY COMMODITY SO WE'VE HAD AN ABILITY HERE AND WHAT'S HAPPENED IS THE INSURANCE PAYMENT WHICH WAS GOING TO LOOK PRETTY BIG ON OCTOBER 1ST SHRANK SOMEWHAT AS THE MONTH AVERAGED OUT BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS I THINK WHAT'S KEY FOR FARMERS NOW IS THAT IF THIS MARKET DOES GO BACK DOWN AGAIN THE INSURANCE WILL NOT PROTECT THEM AT THIS POINT SO THERE'S ALL THAT DOWNSIDE RISK SO IF WE DO GO BACK 3.19 CORN IF WE GO TO 2.90 CORN THE AMERICAN FARMER ISN'T GOING TO BE PROTECTED SO IF YOUR STORING CORN OUT THERE LOOKING FOR PRICE APPRECIATION OR BASIS APPRECIATION IN MY OPINION YOU CAN'T STORE WHETHER IT'S CORN OR BEANS UNPROTECTED HERE IF YOU'VE GOT CORN YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT SELLING SOME OF THE DEFERRED CONTRACTS AND CAPTURING THE CARRY IF YOU DON'T WANT TO DO THAT THEN YOU AT LEAST HAVE TO HAVE A PUT OPTION UNDERNEATH TO PROTECT THAT DOWNSIDE  SO THE IDEA IS TO PROTECT YOUR SELF TO GET THAT PROFIT. YEA YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU DON'T THIS MARKET WENT UP PRETTY QUICKLY IN MY OPINION FOR SOME REAL STRANGE REASONS THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE COULD WE GO BACK DOWN AS QUICKLY THIS MARKET SOME PEOPLE CALLED IT AN INSANE RALLY WELL THIS MARKET REALLY HAS LOST IT'S MARBLES WE COULD GO DOWN AS QUICKLY AS WE WENT BACK UP AGAIN AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT THEY NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR. OKAY THANK YOU VERY MUCH MARK GOLD OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN ON THIS MONDAY MORNING. A COLD MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY MIKE…YEAH IF YOU THINK LAST WEEK'S AIR WAS COLD THIS IS BRINGING EVEN COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THE JET STREAM COMING RIGHT OFF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE STRAIGHT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND RIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CORN BELT. NOW THIS ISN'T GOING TO LAST FOREVER, BUT NO DOUBT ABOUT IT THIS IS A COLD BLAST OF AIR AND ITS GOING TO SINK INTO THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN RELAX A LITTLE BIT AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. BUT THAT'S STILL A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN THERE WITH THE TROUGH KIND OF DIGGING IN AND ANOTHER ONE DIGGING IN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE HAVE ANOTHER TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE EAST AFTER THAT. BUT YOU CAN SEE ITS STILL BASICALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST EVEN AFTER A WEEK OF THIS COLD WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT MORE OF IT AND A LITTLE BIT OF A RIDGE OUT WEST WHICH KEEPS THE WARMTH OUT THAT WAY AS WELL. NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING WEEK. THAT'S A PRETTY EASY FORECAST ACTUALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTERN MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL COLORADO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THAT ENTIRE AREA ONLY SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA MUCH OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OREGON EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO FOR THIS COMING WEEK. LETS GO TO PRECIPITATION THEN WE DO SEE ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST NOW THERE IS GOING TO BE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BUT A LOT OF THAT IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WHICH MEANS YOU DON'T GET A LOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THAT SNOW SOMETIMES AND SO WE'RE GOING TO GO NEAR NORMAL UP THERE. WE'RE GOING TO GET SOME BUT ITS NOT GOING TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT MORE OR LESS AS FAR AS THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT. NOW THE SNOW MAY COME DOWN PRETTY GOOD AND GIVE SOME AREAS SOME HEAVY SNOW BUT IT WILL BE A DRIER SNOW. BELOW NORMAL THEN FOR MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS YOU CAN SEE INTO WESTERN TEXAS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ABOVE NORMAL ALSO IN CENTRAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR A CHANGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS THIS WILL TAKES US RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASICALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE APPALACHIAN RANGE…IT LOOKS PRETTY COLD THROUGH THAT AREA. NEAR NORMAL UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR ARIZONA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION I DON'T HAVE ANY BELOW NORMAL AREAS HERE. I'M GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEST COAST INCLUDING ALL OF CALIFORNIA FOR A CHANGE THAT COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS FOR SOME OF YOU FOLKS. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOST AREAS FROM THE OHIO RIVER FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO BOISE IDAHO FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE OF JUST 30 DEGREES… LUBBOCK TEXAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE STILL CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 44, AND TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HIGH AROUND 27.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, OUR GOOD FRIEND MACHINERY PETE JOINS US WITH SOME AUCTION ADVICE---FOR THOSE THINKING ABOUT BECOMING SELLERS.
MACHINERY PETE:
THANKS, GREG. YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DEALS BY FOLLOWING PETE ON TWITTER OR LIKING HIM ON FACEBOOK. IN ADDITION TO HIS WEEKLY SEGMENT ON AGDAY, HE'S ALSO FEATURED EVERY WEEK ON AGRITALK AND AGWEB DOT COM.

 

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