AgDay Daily Recap -November 20, 2014

November 20, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 20, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - IS THE PRESIDENT PLANNING TO PUSH FORWARD HIS OWN IMMIGRATION DECISIONS? PLUS FARMERS LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES FORMS OF ON FARM STORAGE IN AN EFFORT CASH IN ON MARKET CARRY...IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE WEB THAT IS COMMODITY MARKETS. A STRONG DOLLAR WEAK OIL HISTORICALLY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO SOYBEAN OR END COMMODITY VALUES, AND WE'RE HEADING OUTDOORS ON THE FARM FOR AN EARLY SEASON GOOSE HUNT WITH CHIP FLOREY. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
IMMIGRATION:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. NEW REPORTS...THE PRESIDENT COULD UNVEIL CHANGES TO THE NATION'S IMMIGRATION POLICY AS EARLY AS TODAY. AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
HOUSE AG COMM:
SPEAKING OF THE NEW CONGRESS, TEXAS REPRESENTATIVE MIKE CONAWAY HAS BEEN NAMED CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE. HE SUCCEEDS OKLAHOMA REP, FRANK LUCAS. HE'S NOW THE 50TH CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE.
SEANATE AG COMM:
OVER IN THE SENATE, MICHIGAN DEMOCRAT DEBBIE STABENOW CONFIRMING SHE'LL BECOME THE RANKING MEMBER ON THE SENATE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE IN THE NEW CONGRESS. STABENOW SAYS SHE AND KANSAS SENATOR PAT ROBERTS HAVE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT THE COMMITTEE MOVING FORWARD.  ROBERTS IS SET TO BECOME THE CHAIR OF THAT COMMITTEE.
GRAIN BAGGING:
AS WE MENTIONED WEDNESDAY, ELEVATORS AROUND THE CORN BELT ARE USING TEMPORARY AND EMERGENCY STORAGE TO HOLD THIS YEAR'S MASSIVE CROP.
BUT SOME FARMERS ARE TRYING TO CUT ADDITIONAL HOLDING AND DRYING COSTS BY BAGGING THEIR OWN GRAIN. AG DAY'S BETSY JIBBEN SHOWS US ONE FARMER TRYING BAGGING FOR THE FIRST TIME.
NY SNOW:
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. SO FAR AREAS NEAR BUFFALO NEW YORK ARE COUNTING UP TO SIX FEET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MULTIPLE DEATHS ARE BEING BLAMED ON THE STORM AND NOW THE GOVERNOR IS CALLING IN THE NATIONAL GUARD FOR HELP. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS MORE BIG SNOWS IN TODAY'S CROPWATCH.
CME REPORT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS WEDNESDAY TRADE WAS MOSTLY A DOWN DAY IN GRAINS AND MIXED FOR LIVESTOCK. DETAILS FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME...
ANALYSIS INTRO:
IN ANALYSIS THIS MORNING, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL IS HELPING US TIE MULTIPLE COMMODITIES TOGETHER. HE'S JOINED AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BY FARM JOURNAL ECONOMIST BOB UTTERBACK. GENTLEMEN!
ANALYSIS UTTERBACK:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BOB UTTERBACK  MARKETING HE'S GOT A COUPLE OF REALLY ISSUES THAT I WANT TO ASK HIM ONE IS I'D LIKE TO ASK HIM ABOUT THE WHEAT SITUATION AT THIS POINT IN TIME WHERE WE GOING TO GO WITH THAT AND THE SECOND THING IS WE GOT THE LOW OIL PRICES AND THE DOLLARS FLUCTUATING TOO.>> SO FROM MY HISTORY IN THE MARKET ESSENTIALLY A STRONG DOLLAR WEAK OIL HISTORICALLY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO SOYBEAN OR END COMMODITY VALUES. OKAY. BUT IF YOU GET CHEAP ENOUGH YOU INCREASE USAGE AND FEED USAGE WHICH IS KIND OF AN OFFSET BUT I THINK IT SETS A AND BUT QUANTITATIVE EASING IN THE UNITED STATES BUT IT'S GOING UP IN EUROPE AND EVEN CHINA SO THE WORLD ECONOMY IS STILL SHAKY YOU KNOW I IT'S NOT ROBUST WE'RE THE STRONGEST ENGINE ECONOMIC ENGINE THE UNITED STATES BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S A STRONG ECONOMY WE'RE KIND OF LIMPING ALONG BUT THE IMPLICATION TO COMMODITIES IS I DON'T THINK IT'S THE MARKET THAT WE HAD THIS STRONG PUSH OF WHAT WE HAD FROM 2004 TO 2013 PUSHNESS NOW WE HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON OUR REASONS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOLID SUPPLY REDUCTION OR ACTUALLY VALID USAGE THE OUTSIDE MARKETS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A POSITIVE IT'S GOING TO BE MORE OF A NEGATIVE AND WHEN YOU LOOK TO WHEAT MARKET RIGHT NOW YOU'VE GOT THE WEATHER WE'VE HAD A ROUGH GETTING THE CROP OUT IT'S NOT PLANTED IN GREAT CONDITIONS SOME OF THE STAND ARE WEAK AND THEN YOU GOT UKRAINE RUSSIA ABNORMALITY WE DON'T KNOW IF THEIR GOING WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO FOR PROTECTION OVER THERE SO I THINK THERE'S SOME ANXIETY AND UNCERTAINTY SO MY RECOMMENDATION IS YOU HAVE A STOP UNDERNEATH THE MARKET TECHNICALLY USE A MOVING AVERAGE AND SAY OKAY I'M NOT GOING TO ANYTHING UNLESS THE MARKET STARTS MAKING NEW LOWS I'M GOING TO GIVE MYSELF ROOM TO THE UPSIDE AND WHEN I DO I'M GOING TO BUY A PUT I'M NOT GOING TO SELL A CASH OR FUTURES BECAUSE I'M REALLY IN THE BULL OR SHORT TERM POSITIVE BUT I DON'T WANT TO GET BULLISH I WANT TO BE PREPARED TO PULL THE TRIGGER IF THIS MARKET THE PROPS ARE THROWN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH IT SO I WOULD NOW GIVE YOURSELF LEAVE IN WHEAT I WOULDN'T GET REALLY PUSHING MYSELF TO BE A HEAVY SELLER YET BUT I'D BE GETTING MENTALLY PREPARED BECAUSE A LOT OF THE OUTSIDE FORCES ARE NOT VERY POSITIVE. BOB UTTERBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING IS OUR GUEST HERE ON AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY MIKE. I FEEL REALLY BAD FOR THOSE FOLKS OUT IN NEW YORK. UNBELIEVABLE IT IS AND IT’S AMAZING HOW YOU GO FROM THE AIRPORT AND YOU'VE ONLY GOT A HANDFUL OF INCHES TO SIX FEET. SIX FEET JUST A FEW MILES AWAY, OH MY GOSH… BUT IT JUST CAME RIGHT UP LAKE ERIE JUST FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD AND I SUPPOSE THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS BUT THAT'S A PRETTY RARE EVENT SOMETHING THAT MASSIVE. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL BE ON GOING. I DON'T SEE THAT SAME SPOT IN BUFFALO GETTING THAT AMOUNT AGAIN OBVIOUSLY THE SITUATION WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. BUT THERE WILL BE OTHER PLACES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES GET A FOOT OR MORE. THAT'S JUST TYPICAL AS THE COLD AIR COMES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY MILD WATERS OF THE LAKES. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW EXITED SOUTH FLORIDA THAT MEANS CHILLIER AIR DOWN THERE. AND A DECENT STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST. IT DOES DRY OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THOUGH ONCE IT GETS OVER THE FIRST RANGE OF MOUNTAINS THERE. AND YOU CAN SEE SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. AGAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES. NOW WE'RE GOING TO START TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE CREEPING INTO TEXAS HERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT WILL START TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST WEAKENS. IT’S STILL CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION. AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND THAT'S COMING EASTWARD AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE EAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUT YOU'LL NOTICE THAT MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD AND AS THIS STORM SYSTEM COMES EAST OF THE ROCKIES IT WILL PICK UP SOME OF THAT MOISTURE AND ACTUALLY BECOME A PRETTY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOTS OF PLACES THAT HAVE GOTTEN SNOW GETTING RAIN THIS TIME AROUND WASHING ALL OF THAT SNOW AWAY. THERE'S THE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS IS ALL OBVIOUSLY SNOW THAT YOU MELT DOWN TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY IN IT. SO SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES… A DECENT AMOUNT OUT WEST...ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS YOU CAN SEE THAT YOU DO SEE SOME POCKETS GETTING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. AND SOME DECENT AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE SNOW IT’S BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. LET’S ADD ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND YOU'LL SEE SOME POCKETS ENDING UP WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF THE WHITE STUFF. AND WE'LL ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EVEN INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT ALSO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON…HIGHS AGAIN VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEENS AND TWENTIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...YOU HAVE TO GET DOWN INTO NORTHERN DIXIE BEFORE YOU SEE A HIGH IN THE 50'S AND THEN YOU'RE 60'S ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WITH 50'S DOWN TO THE GULF COAST AND THEN FOR THE HIGHS TOMORROW IT WARMS UP A LITTLE BIT. BUT ITS STILL WAY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE'S STILL LOTS OF 20'S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. AND THERE'S THE TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM YOU CAN SEE HOW THAT GOES EASTWARD. WE HAVE A 2-3 DAY WARM UP COMING HERE AND THEN THE TROUGH DIGS BACK IN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE COLD AIR JUST NOT AS COLD TO MOST OF THE LOWER 48. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR ROSWELL NEW MEXICO TODAY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 65... IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN VERY COLD TIMES OF SNOW SHOWERS HIGH OF ONLY 17... NASHVILLE TENNESSEE PARTLY SUNNY AND QUITE CHILLY HIGH OF JUST 45 DEGREES...
OOTF GOOSE HUNT:
WE WRAP UP OUR THREE DAY SERIES OUTDOORS ON THE FARM WITH A GOOSE HUNT IN IOWA. PROFARMER EDITORIAL DIRECTOR CHIP FLOREY IS OUT ON AN EARLY SEASON GOOSE HUNT WITH TIPS ON RESPECTING THE FIELDS AND THE LAND OWNERS WISHES WHILE KEEPING YOUR SIGHTS ON THE BIRDS ABOVE.

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