AgDay Daily Recap -November 24, 2015

November 24, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOV. 24, 2015

OPENING HEADLINES:
ARGENTINA ELECTS A NEW PRESIDENT...WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR GRAIN EXPORTS...
IN AGRIBUSINESS...RESEARCHING YEARS ENDING IN 6.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT CORN YEARS ENDING IN A 6 DO TEND TO SEE A RALLY
AND PUTTING PARTISAN POLITICS ASIDE--AS THE CAPITOL CHRISTMAS TREE ROLLS INTO WASHINGTON.

NEWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT, MAURICIO MACRI COULD MAKE BIG CHANGES TO AGRICULTURE:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
AFTER A RUNOFF ELECTION IN OCTOBER, ARGENTINE VOTERS ELECTED A NEW PRESIDENT OVER THE WEEKEND WHO HAS VOWED TO MAKE SOME BIG CHANGES TO AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS.
SUPPORTERS OF MAURICIO MACRI GATHERED IN CENTRAL BUENOS AIRES TO CELEBRATE HIS VICTORY.
THE CONSERVATIVE, PRO-BUSINESS LEADER WAS ELECTED AS THE COUNTRY'S NEW PRESIDENT ON SUNDAY BY A NARROW WIN.
HE WON BY A 52 TO 48 PERCENT VOTE AGAINST DANIEL SCIOLI.
SCIOLI WAS THE CHOSEN SUCCESSOR OF CURRENT PRESIDENT CRISTINA FERNANDEZ. FERNANDEZ AND HER LATE HUSBAND DOMINATED THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL SCENCE FOR 12 YEARS.
MACRI WILL TAKE OFFICE DEC. 10.
THE NEW PRESIDENT BRINGS A DIFFERENT ATTITUDE AND PRIORITIES FOR THE ECONOMIC PICTURE OF ARGENTINA. AND IT COULD VERY WELL SPILL OVER INTO U.S. GRAIN MARKETS.
NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN HAS BEEN LOOKING AT THAT ANGLE OF THE STORY FOR US.
CLINTON, DURING MACRI'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN, HE'S PROMISED TO LIFT EXPORT TAXES ON CERTAIN COMMODITIES AND IN TURN DEVALUE THE CURRENCY TO A MUCH CHEAPER PESO-BOTH COULD HELP THE COUNTRY'S FARMERS SELL MORE GRAIN. MACRI'S PLANS TO ELIMINATE WHEAT AND CORN EXPORT AND REDUCE SOYBEAN EXPORT STARTING IN 2016. NOW SOYBEAN TAX RUNS AT 35 PERCENT.
WHEAT AT 23 AND CORN AT 20 PERCENT TAX. NOW SOME FARMERS HAVE HELD ONTO GRAIN IN THE PAST DUE TO HIGH EXPORT TAXES. IF MACK-REE FULFILLS HIS PROMISES TO REDUCE TAXES , BLOOMBERG NEWS IS REPORTING THE COUNTRY'S FARMERS ARE READY TO SHIP AN ESTIMATED 8 BILLION DOLLARS IN STORED CROPS ONCE THE TAXES ARE LIFTED.
"ALL OF THE SUDDEN, HERE YOU GO. IF YOU DROP AWAY WITH TAXATION, IT'S GOING TO LET THOSE FARMERS START PUSHING CROPS OUT THE DOOR. THAT COULD BE COMPETITIVE AGAINST THE U.S. DEPENDING WHAT THE PESO DOES ALSO DEPENDING ON WHAT WEATHER DOES TO THEM. MAYBE WE'LL BE BLESSED AND SOMEONE ELSE GETS THE WEATHER AND WE DON'T,"
PROFARMER'S BRIAN GRETE, SAYS THERE COULD BE SHORT TERM IMPACTS TO CORN, SOYBEANS AND THE WHEAT MARKET WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SUPPLY COMING FROM ARGENTINA BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM.
THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE WHOLE STORY IS FOR THE ARGENTINE PRODUCER THROUGH THE DEVALUATION OF THE PESO, WHICH WILL BE COMING, IT'S GOING TO MEAN A HIGHER PRICE FOR THEIR CORN AND SOYBEANS. THE CORN AND SOYBEANS THEY'VE STORED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS, AS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION, WE'RE GOING TO SEE MORE OF THAT HIT THE MARKET. 04 IF WE DO GET THE REDUCTION IN THE EXPORT TAXES LIKE MACREE HAS PROMISED, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MAJOR CHANGES DOWN THE ROAD.
MARTIN SAYS THE NEXT STEP IS WATCHING WHICH COMMODITY PRODUCERS WILL PLANT. SHE PREDICTS IT COULD BE MORE SOYBEANS BECAUSE ARGENTINA IS A BIG BIO DIESEL AND SOY OIL PRODUCER.
BLOOMBERG ALSO REPORTS THERE IS A PROPOSAL FOR A 90-DAY WINDOW OF NO EXPORT TAXES ON SOYBEANS.
THAT COULD SPUR SALES FROM STOCKPILED CROPS.
NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE TO MAKE TAX REFORM A PRIORITY:
ON THE TAX FRONT HERE AT HOME, THE NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE, TEXAS REPUBLICAN KEVIN BRADY, IS MAKING TAXREFORM A LEGISLATIVE PRIORITY. THIS COMES FROM INVESTMENT NEWS.
CHAIRMAN BRADY SAID "OVER THE COMING MONTHS, WE ARE GOING TO TAKE REAL STEPS TOWARD FIXING OUR BROKEN TAX CODE."
BRADY HAS WRITTEN A BILL IN THE LAST THREE CONGRESSES TO ELIMINATE THE ESTATE TAX. THERE ARE ALSO MORE THAN 50 TAX-EXTENDERS CONGRESS MUST RENEW ONCE AGAIN BEFORE THE END OF THIS YEAR THAT FALL UNDER THE WAYS AND MEANS JURISDICTION.
CROP WATCH:
LET'S CHECK IN NOW WITH MIKE HOFFMAN WITH OUR TUESDAY MORNING CROPWATCH.
GOOD MORNING CLINTON. WE'LL START IN ARKANSAS WHICH WAS INUNDATED WITH RECORD-SETTING RAINFALL LAST WEEK. IT DELAYED SOME WINTER WHEAT PLANTING. BUT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS EXTENSION SAYS IT'S TOO LATE IN THE SEASON TO IMPACT MOST FALL-HARVESTED CROPS. AND TAKE A LOOK AT THIS VIEW IN BERRIEN COUNTY, MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY MORNING.THE SUN WAS JUST STARTING TO PEAK THROUGH THE TREES. IT WAS A DAY AFTER THE AREA WAS BLANKETED WITH 6-TO-8 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. AND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA, THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER A 12 INCH SNOWFALL. TOM DEARLOVE FROM SOL-DOT-NUH, ALASKA SHARED THIS PHOTO. THAT'S HIS SAUNA THAT WAS TOM WAS PLANNING TO USE.
HE'S A FORMER RESIDENT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT NOW CALLS ALASKA HOME.
HE SAYS THERE ARE FIFTY WORDS IN THE ALASKA NATIVE TONGUE TO DESCRIBE SNOW. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING YOU CAN SEE HIGH PRESSURE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE EAST CHANGES ARE COMING ONCE AGAIN THOUGHT I'LL HAVE MY FORECAST COMING UP AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING YOU CAN SEE HIGH PRESSURE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE EAST CHANGES ARE COMING ONCE AGAIN THOUGHT I'LL HAVE MY FORECAST COMING UP.
TEASE:
 WENDY'S UNVEILING ITS SUPPLIER CODE OF CONDUCT THIS WEEK, HIGHLIGHTING KEY PRIORITIES IMPORTANT TO THE BRAND.
SOME OF THE AREAS INCLUDE GUIDELINES FOR FOOD SAFETY, FOOD INGREDIENTS, FARM ANIMAL HEALTH AND LABOR PRACTICES.
THESE GUIDELINES TAKE EFFECT IN 2016 IN U.S. STORES. CAN WE FOLLOW MARKET CYCLES BASED ON THE YEAR? SUE MARTIN JOINS US NEXT WITH SOME RESEARCH SHE DID INTO YEARS ENDING IN SIX...AND WHAT IT MAY MEAN FOR 2016.
PLUS IN A CITY OFTEN CRITICIZED FOR ITS DIVISIVNESS....AT LEAST DURING ONE HOLIAY THEY CAN SEEM TO FORGET THEIR PARTISAN DIFFERENCES WHEN THEY GATHER AROUND A TREE.
CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS THE U.S. DOLLAR SHOWING STRENGTH TO START TRADE EARLY MONDAY.
THAT SENT COMMODITY PRICES DOWNWARD--BUT THE RUN PULLED BACK AS THE DOLLAR LOST MOMENTUM.
LETS SEE HOW THINGS CLOSED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
VERY POSITIVE START TO THE WEEK HERE AS WE GO INTO THE THANKSGIVING DAY WEEK. SOYBEANS HAD TRADED LOWER AND HAD LEAD THE GRAIN COMPLEX LOWER OVERALL DUE TO THE ELECTIONS DOWN IN ARGENTINA. I THINK A LOT OF THE WEAKNESS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOY COMPLEX WERE ON IDEAS THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT WOULD MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO GET THESE TYPES OF THINGS DONE. A VERY POSITIVE DAY FOR THE CATTLE COMPLEX. THE HOGS NOT DOING QUITE SO WELL. BUT OVERALL HOLDING TO FIRM THOSE AS WELL. CATTLE REACTING TO THE CATTLE ON FEED REPORT FROM LAST FRIDAY WHICH WAS CONSIDERED NEUTRAL BUT AT LEAST IT WASN'T BEARISH AND I THINK THE MARKET WAS A LITTLE BIT WORRIED ABOUT SOME BEARISH ON FEED NUMBERS AND BEARISH PLACEMENT NUMBERS WE KEEP ON EXPECTING OUR CURRENT INVENTORIES TO START INCREASING. OVERALL THE MARKET IS HOLDING AND HOLDING PRETTY WELL. HOLDING TWO DOLLAR GAINS AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT CAN CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHORT COVERING AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOG MARKET ALSO SEEING SOME SUPPORT IN THROUGH HERE ON SOME STEADY CASH PRICES JUST KIND OF A MIXED TONE OF THE CASH MARKET HERE TODAY. IDEAS ARE THAT WE'LL SEE LESS FAT HOGS COMING TO MARKET WHICH IS KIND OF A GOOD THING BECAUSE WE HAVE HAD PLENTY OF PORK IN FACT LAST WEEK WAS A RECORD SLAUGHTER AGAIN.
AGRIBUSINESS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK IS SUE MARTIN OF AG AND INVESTMENT SERVICES. SUE, IT'S BEEN KIND OF AN INTERESTING YEAR, IN THAT THE END OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN... I DON'T WANT TO SAY A BIT OF A DOWNER, BUT WE JUST HAVEN'T SEEN THE PRICES THAT WE LIKE TO SEE. DO YOU THINK THAT MAYBE THERE MIGHT BE SOME TRENDS ON THE HORIZON WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT?> WELL, I THINK SO. NOW, YOU KNOW WE WILL PREFACE IT WITH A LITTLE DISCLAIMER THAT HISTORY IS NOT A GUARANTEE FOR THE FUTURE, BUT THEY CERTAINLY GIVE US GOOD IDEAS OF PATTERNS OF WHAT WE MIGHT LOOK FOR. AND I LOOK AT YEARS LIKE EACH YEAR, WHAT THEY DO OVER HISTORY AND WE HAVE HISTORY THAT GOES BACK 100 YEARS, SO BASICALLY LOOKING AT CORN YEARS ENDING IN A 6 DO TEND TO SEE A RALLY. > REALLY? INTERESTING.> YEAH,  AND YOU KNOW THIS LAST YEAR, I THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE AN EKG BLIP, MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS WE HAD STACKED UP, BUT THIS COMING YEAR, I THINK IT'S GOING TO LAST MORE THAN A MONTH. I THINK THE RALLY WHEN IT STARTS WILL EBB ITS WAY AND JUNE DOES NOT SHOW UP AS A MONTH FOR A HIGH--IT'S JULY OR AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER. NOW, THERE WERE TWO YEARS THAT DID SEE RALLIES ALL THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE YEAR AND WENT ON INTO EXPIRATION THAT WAY. THE OTHER YEARS, ONE THING THAT REALLY STOOD OUT ON THE STUDY WAS THAT THE PRECEDING FALL, CORN STOOD EVERY BIT OF WHAT IT OUGHT TO BE DOING OF FLAT, SIDEWAYS DECLINING MARKET INTO NOVEMBER, DECEMBER. ONE YEAR, WE DID MAKE A LOW IN JANUARY, RIGHT AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR AND ONE YEAR IT HAPPENED IN APRIL AND THEN OF COURSE, IT SHOVED THAT HIGH OUT INTO SEPTEMBER. I THINK THERE'S HOPE FOR THESE FARMERS OUT THERE THAT THERE IS GOING TO BE SOMETHING A LITTLE BETTER. YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND, YOU ARE GOING INTO PROBABLY A DECENT SPRING, EARLY EASTER THIS YEAR, AND USUALLY THEY SAY EARLY EASTERS, EARLY SPRING. BUT FARMERS ARE READY; THEY HAVE GOT ALL THEIR FIELD WORK DONE. SO THAT'S PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A NEGATIVE TONE TO IT FOR A LITTLE BIT, BUT BASICALLY, I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE SOMETHING BETTER. IT'S JUST LIKE WHEN WE TALKED ON U.S. FARM REPORT; WE JUST NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THE BASIS OUT HERE. THERE'S TWO SEPARATE BASIS MARKETS THIS YEAR. THE EASTERN CORN BELT, WHERE THEY ARE GOING TO ENJOY GOOD BASIS AND BLESSED ARE THOSE FARMERS THAT HAD GOOD CROPS ALONG WITH IT AND THE WESTERN CORN BELT, WHERE THE BASIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE SO SPECIAL.> ALL RIGHT, SO MAYBE SOME THINGS TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO 2016.> I THINK SO.> MAYBE SOME GOOD NEWS, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. THANK YOU, SUE. THANKS FOR BEING HERE. WE WILL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY, RIGHT AFTER THIS.
TALK MARKETS ONE ON ONE WITH SUE MARTIN. CALL AG AND INVESTMENT SERVICES TOLL FREE AT 1-800-527-0051. OR VISIT HER WEBSITE WWW.FUTURESCASHINFO.COM.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, BIG SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LAST WEEK. THIS WEEK, MORE OF THE SAME OR DIFFERENT? DIFFERENT. IT'S A BIG SYSTEM BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT CUTS OFF FOR AWHILE AND IT MAY NOT MOVE TOO QUICK TO THE EAST, BUT IT SURE COMES EAST. SO LET'S PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION AND YOU'LL NOTICE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. ONE IS IN MONTANA AND ANOTHER IS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEY ARE BRINGING IN DECENT MOISTURE THERE. YOU CAN SEE THEY ARE BOTH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. AGAIN, WITH A CUT-OFF EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE FOUR-CORNER REGION, THIS ONE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO MOVE EASTWARD. YOU CAN SEE BY LATER ON TODAY, NOT A LOT GOING ON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THAT'S MOSTLY SNOW AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THAT COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND BACK INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT, YOU CAN SEE WHAT THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE SO WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RETURN MOISTURE THERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT A LOT OF RAIN BUT YOU'LL START TO SEE MORE WARMTH AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT. THAT WILL MELT THAT SNOW THAT FELL FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY. HEADING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF WISCONSIN AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE'S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE THERE. THERE'S JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE SECONDARY SYSTEM CAUSING SOME SNOWS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THAT'S PARTS OF WYOMING AND MONTANA AND IDAHO. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COME EASTWARD FROM THERE. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS VERY LITTLE EAST OF THE NORTHWEST. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS THOUGH, WE'LL SEE MORE AND MORE MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THERE'S GOOD NEWS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ANYWAY WITH NICE MOISTURE THERE TO INCREASE THE SNOW PACT WHICH WE COULD USE A BUNCH OF THIS YEAR. AND WE'LL PUT DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES, VERY LITTLE GOING ON IN THE GREAT LAKES.MOST OF IT IS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERN ROCKIES.
YOU CAN SEE SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. THAT'S IN SIERRA NEVADA ESPECIALLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THAT'S IN THE NORTHERN STATES. THAT'S LOTS OF 30S, BUT 50S AND 60S DOWN INTO DIXIE.
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
REGIONAL FORECASTS:
 NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR REDDING, CALIFORNIA TODAY, IT'S COOL WITH TIMES OF RAIN. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 53 DEGREES. HAYS, KANSAS IS PARTLY SUNNY AND RATHER COOL. THE HIGH IS 55. AND WE'LL GO TO CANTON, OHIO NEXT. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IT'S VERY CHILLY. THE HIGH IS 42. OUR OWN TYNE MORGAN--MAKING A LITTLE NEWS OF HER OWN MONDAY.
KIMBREL IS BORN:
SHE AND HUSBAND JAMES WELCOMING BABY KIMBREL--ALL 8 POUNDS 4 OUNCES OF HER...MEASURING JUST OVER 21 INCHES LONG.
BOTH BABY AND MOM DOING WELL. ... BIG SISTER--KINSLER--ALSO EXCITED TO GET HER NEW LITTLE SIS HOME.
CONGRATS TYNE AND WE ALL ARE WISHING YOU MANY SLEEP FILLED NIGHTS...IN THE MONTHS TO COME.
HARVEST OF THANKS STILL TO COME:
BEFORE TYNE LEFT SHE JOINED ME ON OUR ANNUAL HARVEST SPECIAL. THIS YEAR OUR HARVEST OF THANKS TRAVELS TO PLYMOUTH ROCK, ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND EVEN TO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
AND ALL THE ALONG THE WAY WE FOUND FARMERS AND THEIR FAMILIES THANKFUL FOR THE YEAR'S BOUNTY AND PROUD TO DO THE WORK OF PROVIDING FOOD AND FIBER TO THE WORLD.
JOIN US THANKS GIVING MORNING, FOR HARVEST OF THANKS. IT'S A PROGRAM THE WHOLE FAMILY CAN ENJOY.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, THE E-COLI CONCERNS OF A MEGA FOOD CHAIN CONTINUES TO GROW.  PLUS, NEW RESEARCH INTO IMMIGRATION PATTERNS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND MEXICO.
PLUS AS WE GET READY TO CELEBRATE THANKSGIVING, A SYMBOL OF THE NEXT BIG HOLIDAY ARRIVES IN THE NATION'S CAPITOL.
IN THE COUNTRY -LATER ON AGDAY.
HOPE ON THE HORIZON FOR DAIRY IN 2016:
IN NEWS FROM OUR PARTNERS AT DAIRY TODAY -WHILE MILK PRICES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE BREAK-EVEN COST OF PRODUCTION HEADING INTO 2016, THERE IS HOPE ON THE HORIZON.
RABOBANK ECONOMIST TIM HUNT SAYS LOWER FARM PRICES AROUND THE WORLD MEAN THE SUPPLY BRAKES ARE BEING APPLIED GLOBALLY.
HUNT SPOKE RECENTLY AT DAIRY TODAY'S ELITE PRODUCER BUSINESS CONFERENCE IN LAS VEGAS. HE ALSO SAYS A LOWER WORLD PRICES ARE REAWAKENING CONSUMERS. THE RESULT: "PRICING WILL LIKELY ENTER A SUSTAINED UPWARD PHASE IN MID-2016.
HUNT SAYS CHINA WILL LIKELY WORK THROUGH ITS CURRENT INVENTORY OF DAIRY STOCKS, AND CHINESE MILK PRODUCTION WILL NOT KEEP PACE.
LOWER MILK PRICES IN CHINA MEANS SMALL DAIRY FARMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXIT THE BUSINESS, AND ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE FARMS HAS BEEN SHELVED UNTIL MUCH BETTER PRICES RETURN.
CURRENT WORLD PRICES MEAN NEW ZEALAND COULD SEE PRODUCTION DECLINE NEARLY 10% IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2016, SINCE FEEDING SUPPLEMENTS IS NO LONGER PROFITABLE.
AFTER 40 DAYS---THE CALIFORNIA FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDER HEARING IS CLOSED. BUT THE WORK IS FAR FROM OVER.
MORE FILINGS, A DECISION, COMMENTS AND A FINAL DECISION MUST PRECEED A FINAL VOTE BY CALIFORNIA DAIRY FARMERS. THAT COULD TAKE UNTIL NEXT YEAR OR EVEN ANOTHER 18 MONTHS.
USDA ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IF THE DAIRY CO-OP PROPOSAL IS ACCEPTED CALIFORNIA MILK PRICES COULD RISE A DOLLAR PER HUNDRED--BUT ITS ALSO LIKELY TO RAMP UP PRODUCTION AND FORCES PRICES ELSEWHERE TO DROP.
ONLINE TOOL DESIGNED FOR DAIRY FARMERS:
THERE'S A NEW ONLINE TOOL DESIGNED TO HELP DAIRY FARMERS INPUT SPECIFIC COSTS AND RETURNS.
THE UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM SO PRODUCERS CAN GET A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS ON COSTS--AND HOW MANY TIMES AND WHEN TO BREED A COWS. THE TOOL TALLIES 17 PIECES OF INFORMATION INCLUDING HERD AVERAGE, AGE AND MILK PRICE.
YOU CAN FIND THE TOOL ONLINE AT THE WEBSITE LISTED HERE.
SLUGGISH U.S. ECONOMY DRIVES SOME MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS TO RETURN TO MEXICO:
A NEW REPORT SUGGESTS MORE MEXICANS IMMIGRANTS ARE LEAVING THE U.S. THAN COMING IN.
THAT'S ACCORDING TO A PEW RESEARCH CENTER STUDY THAT POINTS TO A SLUGGISH ECONOMY AS THE REASON MORE LEGAL AND ILLEGAL MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS ARE HEADING BACK TO MEXICO.
PEW FOUND THAT MORE THAN ONE MILLION MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS AND THEIR FAMILIES, INCLUDING AMERICAN-BORN CHILDREN, LEFT THE U.S. FOR MEXICO FROM 2009 TO 2014.
OVER THAT SAME SPAN, 870,000 ENTERED THE U.S. HOWEVER, THE STUDY, WHICH RELIES ON GOVERNMENT CENSUS DATA FROM BOTH COUNTRIES, ACKNOWLEDGES THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO MEASURE THE INFLOW OF IMMIGRATION INTO THE U.S. FROM MEXICO.
CHIPOTLE E-COLI SPREADS BEYOND NORTHWEST:
THE CDC SAYS THE E-COLI OUTBREAK AFFECTING CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL SPREAD BEYOND THE NORTHWEST.
IT NOW INCLUDES SIX STATES--INCLUDING CALIFORNIA, MINNESOTA, NEW YORK, OHIO, OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE.
EARLIER IN THE MONTH, THE COMPANY SHUT DOWN 43 STORES IN SEATTLE AND PORTLAND AFTER AN E-COLI OUTBREAK THERE.
SAME-RESTAURANT SALES AT CHIPOTLE MAY NOW DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BURRITO CHAIN WAS SPUN OFF FROM MCDONALD'S BACK IN 2006.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, GETTING READY TO CELEBRATE CHRISTMAS IN THE NATION'S CAPITOL....
CAPITOL PREPARES FOR CHRISTMAS WITH 74 SPRUCE FOOT TREE ADORNED WITH KIDS’ DECORATIONS:
AFTER A FOUR THOUSAND MILE ROAD-TRIP, THE CHRISTMAS TREE THAT WILL ADORN THE FRONT "YARD" OF THE U-S CAPITOL IS NOW IN POSITION TO LIGHT THE SEASON.
THE CAPITOL CHRISTMAS TREE ARRIVED ON THE WEST LAWN OF THE U.S. CAPITOL FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WAS HARVESTED FROM THE CHU-GASH NATIONAL FOREST IN ALASKA.
THE TREE WAS CUT-DOWN ON OCT.  27 AND SHIPPED FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA TO TACOMA, WASHINGTON BY BOAT. THEN IT WAS PLACED ON BOARD A FLATBED, AND DRIVEN ACROSS COUNTRY BEFORE ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING IN WASHINGTON.
THE 74 SPRUCE FOOT TREE WILL BE DECORATED WITH ORNAMENTS DESIGNED AND CREATED BY SCHOOL-CHILDREN FROM ACROSS ALASKA.
"THIS THE FIRST TIME THE CHRISTMAS TREE HAS COME FROM ALASKA IN THE 45 YEAR TRADITION THAT THE FOREST SERVICE HAS PROVIDED THIS TREE. THE CHUGASH NATIONAL FOREST IS THE MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN FOREST IN THE UNITED STATES. AT 5.4 MILLION ACRES, IT IS THE SECOND LARGEST FOREST OUT OF THE 154 FORESTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. "
THOUSANDS OF LED LIGHTS WILL COMPLEMENT THE HAND MADE ORNAMENTS. THE OFFICIAL LIGHTING OF THE CHRISTMAS WILL TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, DEC. 2. NEWLY SWORN HOUSE SPEAKER PAUL RYAN AND HIS FAMILY WILL LIGHT THE CAPITOL CHRISTMAS TREE.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND BETSY JIBBEN. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL ANALYZE HOG PRICES AND SEE IF CONSUMER DEMAND IS CHANGING.
AND AS YOU GET READY FOR BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING, NOW'S A GOOD TIME A BUDGET LESSON FROM THE EXTENSION.
WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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