AgDay Daily Recap -November 25, 2014

November 25, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 25, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY THE END OF COTTON HARVEST IS GETTING CLOSE ANOTHER STATE CONFIRMS ITS FIRST CASES FO PEDV. IN AGRIBUSINESS....THE RECENT SOYBEAN RUN WAS NO SURPRISE TO SOME...BUT IT CALLED THE MARKET PERFECTLY AND NOW ACTUALLY THAT STILL RUNNING AND IT'S SAYING THAT WE ARE GOING TO ERODE IN PRICE AS WE GO INTO THE SPRING TIME AND FINDING THE RHYTHM AND BEAUTY IN THE TILLAGE TOOLS OF YESTER-YEAR.AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
COTTON:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. ...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY. COTTON HARVEST CLOSES IN ON THE FINISH LINE AS FARMERS HOPE BIG YIELDS MAKE UP FOR LOW PRICES.
COTTON RESEARCH:
AS TENNESSEE COTTON FARMERS MOVE INTO THE HOMESTRETCH THIS HARVEST SEASON, SOME ARE REPORTING A NEW PLANT DISEASE IN THEIR FIELDS. IN THIS REPORT FROM THE U-T INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE, CHUCK DENNEY REPORTS ON THE RESEARCH TO LIMIT AN EMERGING PATHOGEN.
CROP PROGRESS:
AS FAR AS THE REMAINING HARVEST - USDA ISSUED IT'S LAST NATIONAL CROP PROGRESS REPORT OF THE YEAR. CORN HARVEST IS JUST ABOUT WRAPPED-UP. AND IT'S FINALLY PUSHED AHEAD OF AVERAGE WITH 94-PERCENT NOW IN THE BIN. SOME NORTHERN STATES ARE STILL BEHIND, INCLUDING MICHIGAN WHICH IS JUST AT 69-PERCENT. WISCONSIN IS AT 73-PERCENT. TAKING A QUICK GLANCE AT WINTER WHEAT, 92-PERCENT IS EMERGED...AHEAD OF AVERAGE.HEADING INTO WITNER, 58-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT, ANOTHER 36-PERCENT IS FAIR.
HAWAII PED:
ANOTHER STATE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE LIST WITH POSITVE CASES OF THE DEADLY P-E-D-VIRUS. BUT THIS ONE MAY SURPRISE YOU. HAWAII'S DEPARTMENT OF AG IS NOW REPORTING A POSITIVE CASE OF THE DISEASE.
CATTLE ON FEED:
THE NUMBER OF CATTLE ON FEED MAY HAVE HELD STEADY IN OCTOBER BUT MARKETINGS AND PLACEMENTS WERE AT OR NEAR RECORD LOWS.
OREGON GMO:
IT LOOKS LIKE THE OREGON GMO LABELING FIGHT IS NOT QUITE OVER. THE BALLOT ISSUE APPEARS HEADED FOR A RECOUNT. THE OREGONIAN REPORTING NEW TOTALS SHOW THE INITIATIVE LOSING BY FEWER THAN 1,500 VOTES. BUT SOME 13-THOUSAND OTHER BALLOTS WITH MISSING SIGNATURES OR OTHER QUESTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO VERIFIED AND COUNTED.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, A CLOSER LOOK AT MONDAY'S MARKET MISSTEPS AND FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT THAT RECENT SOYBEAN RALLY...AND HOW ONE TECHNICAL TRADER SAYS HE SAW IT COMING.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF HEAD SCRATCHING OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO REGARDING THE RECENT RALLY IN SOYBEANS. BUT, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TALKS WITH ONE GENTLEMAN THIS MORNING THAT SAYS THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS WERE THERE ALL ALONG.
ANALYSIS:
WE'RE TALKING TO MIKE FLOREZ OF FLOREZ TRADING HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK MIKE LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOMETHING THAT YOU TOLD ME AND IT'S AT LEAST 6 WEEKS AGO BECAUSE YOU’RE A TECHNICAL MAN AND YOU LOOK AT TECHNICAL INFORMATION ALL THE TIME AND YOU TOLD ME THAT SOYBEANS WERE GOING TO DO WHAT THEY DID SO DESCRIBE IT TO ME AGAIN. WELL I WE WERE TALKING IT WAS RIGHT ABOUT THE END OF SEPTEMBER EARLY OCTOBER AND I WAS I WAS SAYING THE MARKET THE SOYBEAN MARKET WAS GOING TO BOTTOM AND GIVE YOU A RALLY IN LESS ROUGHLY 30 DAYS AND THE REASON I WAS SAYING THAT IS BECAUSE I DO A LOT OF GANE ANALYSIS AND GANE IS A MYSTICAL TRADER BACK IN THE 20 AND 30S WHATEVER HE HAD WHAT'S A 60 YEAR GANE CYCLE AND YOUR COMPARING NOW TO 60 YEARS AGO AND THERE'S A LOT OF SYMMETRY TO WHAT THE CHARTS DID SO THAT YEAR WE HAD SIMILAR DECLINES AND SIMILAR BOTTOMS AND SIMILAR RALLIES AND THE MARKET CULMINATED THAT YEAR ON SEPTEMBER 27 AND THEN PROCEEDED TO GO UP ABOUT I THINK IT WAS ABOUT I CAN'T REMEMBER IF IT WAS 9% OR 13% ABOUT WHAT WE DID ON THIS ONE THIS ONE WENT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER IN PERCENTAGE THAN THAT ONE BUT IT CALLED THE MARKET PERFECTLY AND NOW ACTUALLY THAT STILL RUNNING AND IT'S SAYING THAT WE ARE GOING TO ERODE IN PRICE AS WE GO INTO THE SPRING TIME SO IT IS SAYING THAT THE BEAR MARKET IS NOT OVER THAT WAS JUST A RALLY ESSENTIALLY TO SELL. NOW YOUR BASING THAT INFORMATION ON ALL TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOT WATCHING SUPPLY AND DEMAND EVEN THOUGH YOU KNOW SUPPLY AND DEMAND. WELL I THINK THAT THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND GOES ALONG WITH A CONTINUAL DOWN MARKET BUT YEA THAT IN AND OF IT ITSELF WITHOUT KNOWING FUNDAMENTALS STILL PREDICTED THE MARKETS WILL DECLINE INTO YOU KNOW LATE WINTER. OKAY I WANT TO TALK TO YOU AGAIN SOMETIME AND I'M GOING TO TALK TO YOU AND ASK YOU IF THAT INFORMATION CAN APPLY TO OTHER MARKETS TO. OH YEA IT DOES. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MIKE FLOREZ HERE ON AGDAY IN THE FUTURE WE'LL BE BACK BYE.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE I GUESS WE'RE GETTING EVER CLOSER TO THANKSGIVING. HOW'S TRAVEL LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY HERE? WELL WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A STORM IN THE EAST AS WE TALKED ABOUT LAST WEEK. IT KIND OF DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF IT. THE MODELS KEEP FLIP FLOPPING ON IT LITTLE BIT AS WHO GETS THE SNOW AND THE RAIN. SO KEEP THAT IN MIND. WE DO HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE TAKING OFF ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BE CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. EVEN TODAY AS WE PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION YOU CAN SEE THAT LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALSO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THAT'S WHAT BECOMES THE EASTERN STORM SYSTEM. OUR COMPUTER MODEL IS NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH IT AS FAR AS BRINGING A LOT OF SNOW. SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH. BECAUSE SOME COMPUTER MODELS ARE A LOT MORE IMPRESSED WITH IT. BUT LETS PUT IT INTO MOTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND ENDS UP IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OFF INTO THE CAROLINA'S AS YOU CAN SEE BY TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY RAIN AT THAT POINT ALTHOUGH THERE'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW IN THE APPALACHIANS ON THE SOUTHERN END. SOME LIGHT SNOW. WE'RE TALKING ONE TO TWO INCHES AT MOST AS THIS SYSTEM KIND OF DIVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS WE HEAD THROUGH TOMORROW. AND YOU CAN SEE MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN MIXED WITH THE SNOW DOWN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST. FIRST OF ALL KEEPING THAT WARM AIR IN MOST OF THE WEST…A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW STREAKING ACROSS MONTANA AT THAT POINT, AND AGAIN OUR COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS THE STORM STAYING PRETTY FAR OFF-SHORE WITH THE SNOW ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF IT AND NOT A LOT OF IT. BUT THAT'S SOMETHING WE NEED TO WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AS YOU CAN SEE. ALSO IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOME DECENT AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA…ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS LOTS OF RAIN FOR FLORIDA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS ESPECIALLY AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINA'S ALL OF THIS IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS WE POINTED OUT. AND THIS NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING IN SOME DECENT AMOUNTS WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOST OF THAT IN THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AND THERE'S THAT STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW COMING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS MINNESOTA THE DAKOTAS AND WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES THEN YOU CAN SEE 50'S FOR HIGHS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. 20'S AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. NOT AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...STILL PRETTY WARM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST…LOWS TONIGHT GOING TO DROP OFF PRETTY GOOD INTO THE TEENS THERE IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS…40'S AND 30'S ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NORTHERN DIXIE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW THEN 60'S GULF COAST BUT ONLY TEENS BY THE TIME YOU GET TO THE CANADIAN BORDER,  AND THERE'S THE BIG TROUGH AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WE'LL SEE THAT TROUGH MOVES ON OFFSHORE. ZONAL FLOW FOR AWHILE…THIS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF A WARM UP ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE MIDWEST. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL GO TO SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA FIRST OF ALL. PARTLY SUNNY AND COOL TODAY HIGH OF 64 DEGREES RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WINDY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...HIGH OF 40 AND THEN FALLING, AND RICHMOND VIRGINIA MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE, AND RATHER MILD HIGH OF 62.
TEASE:
THE 2015 PRICE OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS ISN'T GREAT BUT IT ISN'T TERRIBLE. DETAILS NEXT…
ITC OLD TRACTOR:
LONG AGO MANY FARMERS PUT THEIR PLOWS AWAY FOR GOOD. THEY NOW EMPLOY NO-TILL, LIMITED TILL OR OTHER TYPES OF TILLAGE IN THE FIELD. HOWEVER, OCCASIONALLY THEY'LL PULL THOSE OLD PLOWS AND OLD TRACTORS OUT OF THE SHED FOR FUN.
TODD GLEASON FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS WILL NOW "WAX POETIC" ABOUT THE TURNING OF THE SOIL.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

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