AgDay Daily Recap -November 26, 2014

November 26, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 26, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY  PREPARING FOR TOUGH TIMES AHEAD IN DAIRY. SO HERE WE ARE LOOKING AT 17 DOLLAR MILK WHEN WE JUST COME OFF 24 DOLLAR MILK, A BIG CHANGE. PLUS, AN INTERESTING LOOK AT GRAZING AND REPRODUCTION RESEARCH IN LOUISIANA...IN AGRIBUSINESS....BREAKING DOWN SOYMEAL MARKETS. TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSING ON THE RAW PRODUCT AND THEY'RE NOT LOOKING AT THE ACTUAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTS MEAL AND OIL WHEN THEY'RE LOOKING AT PRICE DISCOVERY FOR BEANS. PLUS, THE SEARCH FOR SOLUTIONS TO DYING SALMON IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
DAIRY RECORDS PROFITS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. JUST ONE DAY AWAY FROM THANKSGIVING AND MANY DAIRY PRODUCERS ARE THANKFUL FOR A VERY PROFITABLE YEAR.
AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
DISASTER PRODUCTS:
MEANWHILE FOR LIVESTOCK OWNERS THAT WEREN'T SO FORTUNATE IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, USDA SAYS MANY OF THE FOLKS ARE NOW GETTING HELP.
LSU GRAZING:
BEEF CATTLE RESEARCHERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE WATER QUALITY AROUND PASTURES. THEY WANT TO FIND OUT IF RUN-OFF FROM GRAZING GROUNDS IS HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON WATERWAYS. IN THIS REPORT FROM LSU AGCENTER TOBIE BLANCHARD REPORTS ON TWO STUDIES, ONE THAT AIMS TO IMPROVE WATER QUALITY AND ANOTHER THAT CAN AFFECT CATTLE REPRODUCTION.
CROP WATCH:
IN CROPWATCH, "NASS" SAYS 52 PERCENT OF ARKANSAS PASTURES ARE IN GOOD OR EXCELLENT CONDITION. HEAVY RAINS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR LARGELY BENEFITED CATTLE FARMERS WITH PLENTIFUL HAY. BUT IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE, EXCESSIVE RAIN REDUCED THE NUTRIENT CONTENT. AND IN TEXAS, RANCHERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY RECENT RAINS. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS FROM THE AGDAY WEATHER-CENTER.
AVIAN FLU:
GROWING CONCERN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THE U.N. WARNING ABOUT A NEW STRAIN OF BIRD FLU-- H-5-N-8...IN RECENT WEEKS, THE VIRUS HAS BEEN FOUND ON FARMS IN GERMANY, THE NETHERLANDS AND AT THIS DUCK FARM IN THE UNITED KINGDOM...WHERE SOME 6-THOUSAND DUCKS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED...AND BARNS SANITIZED. OFFICIALS SAY SO FAR IT HASN'T BEEN SHOWN TO INFECT PEOPLE. BUT IT IS DEADLY FOR FARM RAISED POULTRY--CAUSING SIGNIFICANT MORTALITY IN CHICKENS AND TURKEYS. THE SAME STRAIN HAS BEEN FOUND IN WILD BIRDS AS WELL. AREAS IN ASIA STARTED SEEING THE VIRUS EARLIER IN THE YEAR. THE U.N. SAYS ITS H-5-N-8 COULD BE DEVASTATING TO LIVELIHOODS AS WELL AS WHOLE COUNTRY ECONOMIES AND TRADE.
ANALYSIS:
HERE ON AGDAY AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO DUSTIN JOHNSON FROM E HEDGER DUSTIN LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED THE SOYBEAN PRICES UP THIS YEAR AND BASICALLY IT WAS MEAL IT WASN'T THE BEANS THEMSELVES. YEA I THINK THAT TO MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSING ON THE RAW PRODUCT AND THEY'RE NOT LOOKING AT THE ACTUAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTS MEAL AND OIL WHEN THEY'RE LOOKING AT PRICE DISCOVERY FOR BEANS YOU KNOW WE HAD CRUSH AT THE RECORD LEVEL YOU KNOW WE GOT UP TO $2.16 CENTS FOR THE DECEMBER CONTRACT.  RIGHT. DEFINITELY CAUGHT EVERYONE BY SURPRISE SO YOU KNOW THAT WAS A PRODUCT OF THE LOWEST CRUSH IN SEPTEMBER COMING OFF THE TIGHTEST CROP YEAR THAT WE'VE EVER SEEN FOR BEANS. TIGHTEST CARRYOUT LEAST SO YOU KNOW IT JUST A VERY MESSY TRANSITION FROM 2013 TO 2014 BEANS AND YOU KNOW SINCE THEN LOGISTICAL PROBLEM HAPPENED THE PRICE OF BEANS CAME UP EVENTUALLY THOUGH THAT'S GOING TO BE SORTED OUT AND WE HAVE TO THINK OK DO BEANS REALLY NEED TO BE TRADING UP AT THE THIS LEVEL IF THERE'S YOU KNOW ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MEAL BACK IN THE SYSTEM.  WELL THE BEANS ARE TRADING AT PRETTY GOOD LEVEL AND THEY HAVE BEGINNING TO SOLVED SOME OF THE LOGISTIC PROBLEMS AND YOU CAN FIND THAT OUT WHENEVER WE START IMPORTING MEAL FROM OUT OF BRAZIL. YEA I MEAN WHEN HAVE WE EVER IMPORTED MEAL DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER IS THAT NEEDED ON A RECORD PRODUCTION YEAR FOR BEAN I THINK THOSE ARE THE QUESTIONS THAT WE SHOULD BE ASKING RIGHT NOW YOU KNOW I KNOW THE PRICE INCENTIVES THERE THERE'S A REASON FOR THIS HAPPENING BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR A FINAL CARRYOUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN OUR MEAL DEMAND HERE ARE WE RATIONING MEAL DEMAND BECAUSE OF THESE HIGH PRICES ALL THOSE THINGS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLY BULLISH AND I THINK THAT'S SOMETHING THAT AS TIME GOES ON WE COULD SEE THAT PREMIUM GET WORKED BACK OUT OF THE BEAN MARKET AND THAT'S A REAL CONCERN. >> AND THEN WHENEVER YOU LOOK OR WHATEVER SELLING WE'RE STILL SELLING A LOT OF IT TO CHINA. >> YEA WE DID SOME CANCELATIONS OF MEAL OR ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT BEANS. YEA. BEANS WE'VE BEEN FRONT LOADING THAT DEMAND AGAIN JUST LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR BUT YOU KNOW LAST YEAR WE CUT THAT OFF AT A CERTAIN POINT WE CUT OFF THOSE SALES TO CHINA AFTER MAY OTHER COUNTRIES SOME INDONESIA OTHER COUNTRIES ARE BUYING BEANS STILL FOR THE MOST PART THAT DEMAND WAS SHUT OFF AND WE THINK THE SAME THING CAN HAPPEN THIS YEAR. >> OKAY THANK YOU VERY WE'VE TALKING WITH DUSTIN JOHNSON FORM EHEDGER WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE ITS NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY DRIVE FOR EVERYBODY THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF STORMS A BREWING. YEAH THAT'S GOING TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST. THE BIG CITIES PROBABLY WONT GET A WHOLE LOT OUT OF IT BUT JUST INLAND THEY WILL AND THAT WILL DEFINITELY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. ALSO THE SYSTEM DIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES IF YOU'RE TRAVELING RIGHT THROUGH THAT AREA. AND A STORM SYSTEM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…SO LETS PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION...STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD…THAT SNOW AREA WILL EXPAND AS YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THE SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF SNOW WITH IT BUT IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE TRAVELING RIGHT IN THOSE AREAS WHERE ITS SNOWING THAT COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES. YOU CAN SEE BY LATE IN THE DAY THAT'S DOWN INTO THE ST LOUIS REGION WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW UP IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT KIND OF RE-ENFORCING THAT SHOT OF COLD AIR. AND YOU CAN SEE THE RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER EXCEPT IN EASTERN MONTANA THERE. TAKING A LOOK AT TONIGHT THEN WEAK STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM MISSOURI AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THE NORTHEASTERN STORM ALREADY MOVING OFFSHORE. SO YOU'RE ONLY TALKING ABOUT AN 8 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW IN MAINLY THE APPALACHIANS AS THAT MOVES ON UP THAT WAY. LOTS OF RAIN YOU CAN SEE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW YOU CAN SEE LOW PRESSURE STILL GIVING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WITH SOME MORE RAIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SOME DECENT AMOUNTS IN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ALSO IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS YOU CAN SEE MAINLY THE LIGHT STUFF ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES A LOT OF MOISTURE THERE WITH THAT EAST COAST STORM AND A LOT THERE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST. NOW A LOT OF THAT OUT WEST IS SNOW. THAT PAST 24 HOURS WE'VE SEEN SOME HIGH AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN WE WILL ADD TO THAT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY JUST LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOST PART COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY GET A DECENT AMOUNT. BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WITH THAT SYSTEM ARE GOING TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS MOST OF THE CORN BELT. 50'S AND 60'S INTO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ITS STILL GOING TO BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A LOT OF SINGLE DIGITS THERE BUT 32 DEGREE READINGS IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 60'S ALL THE WAY UP TO DENVER BUT STILL IN THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. TAKING A LOOK AT THE JET STREAM THERE'S THE TROUGH THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE. MOVING OFF SHORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT MEANS A LITTLE BIT OF A WARM UP AND A LITTLE ZONAL FLOW SETTLES IN. AND THEN EVEN A RIDGE AS WE START NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER TROUGH TRYING TO DIG IN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR BOSEMAN MONTANA TODAY CLOUDY SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES...TEXARKANA TEXAS MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH OF 62 AND A CLOUDY MORNING IN UTICA NEW YORK AND THEN THE SNOW SETS IN. HIGH AROUND 37.
HARVEST OF THANKS TEASE:
WELL IF THE WEATHER IS UNPLEASANT YOU MAY WANT TO CURL UP TOMORROW MORNING AND WATCH OUR ANNUAL HARVEST OF THANKS TRIBUTE TO AMERICA'S FARMERS AND RANCHERS.
ITC SALMON RESEARCH:
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE SALMON FISHING IS ESSENTIAL TO THE ECONOMY, CONTAMINATION IN RAIN RUNOFF IS KILLING THE VALUED FISH BEFORE THEY CAN SPAWN. SCIENTISTS ARE WORKING ON SOLUTIONS, BUT TO HELP THE SALMON SURVIVE; THEY FIRST MUST SACRIFICE A FEW IN AN EXPERIMENT. ROBERT BUMSTED HAS DETAILS FROM SEATTLE.

CLOSE:
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE SALMON FISHING IS ESSENTIAL TO THE ECONOMY, CONTAMINATION IN RAIN RUNOFF IS KILLING THE VALUED FISH BEFORE THEY CAN SPAWN. SCIENTISTS ARE WORKING ON SOLUTIONS, BUT TO HELP THE SALMON SURVIVE; THEY FIRST MUST SACRIFICE A FEW IN AN EXPERIMENT. ROBERT BUMSTED HAS DETAILS FROM SEATTLE.

 

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