AgDay Daily Recap -November 3, 2014

November 3, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 3, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY IS A WHEAT RALLY ENTICING MORE FARMERS TO PLANT THAT CROP IN 2015 PLUS SWEET POTATOES ARE COMING OUT OF THE GROUND IN LOUISIANA. IN AGRIBUSINESS....TIPS FOR MAKING MONEY IN 2015. MAKE USRE WE UNDERSTAND WHAT OUR COST OF PRODUCTION OPPORTUNITIES ARE. MACHINERY PETE SAYS THIS FALL MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO BUY A USED COMBINE. AND MEET SOME CITY FOLKS WHO GAVE UP THE RATE RACE OF THE CITY FOR THE PLEASURE OF A PIG PEN. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
WHEAT RALLY:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WHEAT PRICES ENDED OCTOBER ON THEIR BEST RUN SINCE MARCH, DESPITE INDICATIONS OF GROWING GLOBAL SUPPLIES ...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
WHEAT ACERS:
GLOBALLY, THERE HAS BEEN SOME PROBLEMS. WHEAT HAS FIRMED UP A LITTLE, BUT THE PROBLEM IS WORLD STOCKS ARE STILL ADEQUATE. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WHEAT HAS IS, WE CAN'T EVER SQUEEZE THE MARKETS. WE ALWAYS HAVE A MAJOR PRODUCER COME ALONG EVERY SIX MONTHS. YOU NEVER GET IT AS TIGHT AS YOU CAN WITH THE CORN AND BEAN MARKET. OVERALL, PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT WHEAT MAINLY AS DIVERSIFICATION. THAT'S IF YOU CAN WHEAT, BEAN OR DOUBLE-CROP.
ELECTION DAY:
TOMORROW IS DECISION DAY FOR VOTERS. THIS YEAR'S MIDTERM ELECTIONS COULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANGES THAT IMPACT AGRICULTURE. FROM SENATE AG COMMITTEE MEMBERS UP FOR REELECATION LIKE KANSAS CONGRESSMAN PAT ROBERTS...TO GMO LABLEING VOTES IN STATES LIKE COLORADO…HOWEVER THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE IF VOTERS MAKE CHANGES TO THE LEADERSHIP IN THE SENATE.
EPA VOTE:
ONCE CONGRESS GETS BACK TO WASHINGTON ON NOVEMBER 12TH…HOUSE MAJORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY SAYS, WHILE NO DATE HAS BEEN SET IN STONE, A VOTE IS COMING "SOON" ON EPA'S REGULATIONS REQUIREMENTS.  ACCORDING TO THE HILL, HE SAYS THE HOUSE WILL VOTE ON LEGISLATION THAT PREVENTS THE AGENCY FROM ISSUING REGULATIONS WITHOUT SCIENTIFIC DATA TO SUPPORT IT.
COOL TO CONGRESS:
AGRICULTURE AND OTHER INDUSTRY GROUPS NOW ASKING CONGRESS TO "IMMEDIATELY AUTHORIZE AND DIRECT"... USDA SECRETARY VILSACK TO RESCIND PARTS OF COUNTRY OF ORIGIN LABELING LAW…THE GROUPS WANT CONGRESS TO TAKE OUT ELEMENTS OF COOL THAT ARE NOT-COMPLIANT WITH TRADE OBLIGATIONS AT THE WTO. THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT RETALITORY TARRIFFS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO. THEY THINK THE MOVE COULD BE DONE WITHOUT HURTING ANY CHANCES OF WINNING AN APPEAL.
CROP WATCH:
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SAW LESS THAN IDEAL HARVEST CONDITIONS LAST WEEK--BUT THE CUTTING CONTINUES. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN THIS MORNING'S CROPWATCH.
SWEET POTATO HARVEST:
NOW THAT IT’S NOVEMBER THE HOLIDAY SEASON IS IN FULL SWING. SWEET POTATOES ARE A HOLIDAY STAPLE AND LOUISIANA SWEET POTATO PRODUCERS ARE BUSY WITH THEIR HARVEST.  LSU AGCENTER CORRESPONDENT CRAIG GAUTREAUX SAYS WEATHER IS HELPING DRIVE A SUCCESSFUL HARVEST.
KIPLINGER PURCHASE:
OUR PARENT COMPANY, FARM JOURNAL MEDIA ANNOUNCING IT HAS PURCHASED THE KIPLINGER ARGRICULTURE LETTER. THE WELL KNOWN-BI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER--IN PRINT SINCE THE 1920'S… IT'S THE LONGEST RUNNING NEWSLETTER FOCUSED ON AGRICULTURE IN THE COUNTRY. THE PUBLICATION WILL NOW ROLL UNDER THE PROFARMER TENT...TO BE MANAGED BY THE TEAM IN CEDAR FALLS. THE NEW HEADING WILL READ THE AGRULTURE LETTER.
TEASE:
UP NEXT A LOOK AT HOW MARKETS WRAPPED UP THE WEEK AT THE CME. PLUS A DISCUSSION ON FINDING WAYS TO MAKE MONEY IN 2015,  AND YOU WON'T WANT TO MISS MIKE HOFFMAN'S WINTER FORECAST COMING UP IN WEATHER.
CME REPORT:
MARKETS ENDED THE WEEK…A MIXED BAG. LET’S GET THE SCOOP FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
WHILE THE CROP IS STILL COMING OUT OF THE FIELD, THERE'S A LOT OF MOVING PARTS PRODUCERS ALREADY NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT FOR 2015. FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL JOINS US FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. AL.

ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK, WE'RE TALKING WITH CHRIS BARRON WITH AG VIEW SOLUTIONS. CHRIS, ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I WANT TO ASK YOU IS ABOUT MARGINS. WHAT DO WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT WITH PLANTING NEXT YEAR? WHAT SHOULD WE DO BECAUSE OF THE PRICE? THAT'S A BIG ONE AND I THINK THE BIGGEST PART OF THE TOPIC HAS BEEN BEING DISCUSSED. THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT PRODUCERS ARE GOING TO GROW MORE SOYBEANS. I WOULD AGREE THAT. HOWEVER, ON THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS AND FOR THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATION, I THINK WE WANT TO STEP BACK AND LOOK AT THAT CRITICALLY AND MAKE SURE WE UNDERSTAND WHAT OUR COST PRODUCTION OPPORTUNITIES ARE FOR BOTH OF THOSE CROPS. FOR AGRONOMIC REASONS, MAYBE WE WOULD CHANGE OUR PRICE REGIONS. I THINK WE WANT TO SIT DOWN AND AGGREGATE THAT INFORMATION AND LOOK AT IT AND THINK WHAT ARE THE YIELD PROSPECTS IF WE DO SWITCH TO MORE SOYBEANS AND HOW IT IMPACTS THE BOTTOM LINE AGRONOMIC ALLY? BUT ALSO, HERE'S HOW IT IMPACTS FROM A MARKETING STANDPOINT. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT MARGINS, WHERE DO WE START? HOW SHOULD WE GET GOING? WE LIKE TO LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL ITEMS. WE START OUT WITH LAND. THAT'S THE LARGEST LAND ITEM EXPENSE. WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME WORKING ON THAT AND HELPING PRODUCE AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO NEGOTIATE THESE CASH RENTS MORE EFFECTIVELY. WE LOOK ALSO AT EQUIPMENT COSTS. THAT'S HUGE. THEY ARE ARGUING THAT THEY CAN'T ARGUE EQUIPMENT COSTS. YES, WE CAN LOWER EQUIPMENT COSTS. WE CAN BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. WE CAN LOOK AT FUELS COMING DOWN. THERE ARE THINGS WE CAN DO TO DECREASE COSTS. WHEN IT COMES TO FERTILIZER, YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL WITH THAT ONE. THAT'S MAINLY BECAUSE IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA WHERE YOU'VE HAD HIGH PRODUCTIVITY, YOU HAVE TO PUT THAT FERTILITY THAT. THE BIGGEST THING WE WANT TO DO IS MANAGE MARGINS EFFECTIVELY. DO NOT SACRIFICE YIELD. YOU HAVE TO HAVE THE YIELD IF YOU WANT TO MAXIMIZE THE PROFITABILITY. THAT'S WHAT GIVES YOU SOMETHING TO SELL. YOU WANT TO BE CAREFUL THAT WHEN WE CUT COSTS, WE DO NOT CUT YIELD. MAXIMIZE YOUR MARGIN AND MAXIMIZE YOUR PROFIT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY ON THIS MONDAY MORNING. NOW MIKE, WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THIS WEEK. I THINK WHAT EVERYONE HAS BEEN WAITING FOR, IS YOUR WINTER OUTLOOK. HERE IS A CLUE, THINK OF LAST YEAR IN THE MIDWEST. IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS BAD BUT SOME PLACES WILL END UP THAT WAY. HERE'S THE JET STREAM. AS WE START THE WEEK, CUTOFF LOWS ARE STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA. THAT HAS CAUSED A LOT OF RAIN, MOISTURE AND SNOW. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE AWAY AS THAT COMES TO AN END. RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR A DAY OR TWO BUT A TROUGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE'VE SEEN A PROGRESSION AT THIS POINT. WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY CERTAIN PATTERNS SET UP. THINGS USUALLY DO MOVE ALONG AND A BI-SYSTEM. YOU CAN SEE OFF SHORE ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS IT COMES ACROSS THE WEST. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THINGS THIS WEEK NOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THAT IS ALSO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. IT'S LOOKING NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT AND THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST. THE ONLY BELOW NORMAL IS IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNER REGION. TAKE A LOOK AT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IT'S BELOW NORMAL FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY UP TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. IT'S ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEXAS, UP TO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST. THAT INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. YOU CAN SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL AREA IN WESTERN MONTANA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NOW OUR 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES…ONE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST... IT'S ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST AND FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST…THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. I THINK THINGS WILL BE MOVING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST MOST OF THIS COMING MONTH BEFORE SETTLING INTO A WINTER PATTERN. HERE IS A 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION. I KNOW A LOT OF YOU FOLKS IN THE NORTHERN TEAR STATES ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING YOUR CROP IN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY YOU END UP BELOW NORMAL BUT I COULDN'T QUITE FORECAST IT YET. BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD WILL PROBABLY LOOKING ABOVE NORMAL. HERE'S MY WINTER OUTLOOK. I BELIEVE YOU PROBABLY DON'T WANT TO SEE THIS, BUT I'M SEEING BELOW NORMAL FOR EVERYTHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST, EXCEPT THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ARE ABOVE NORMAL AREA. ONLY IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WINTER MONTHS. SOME OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OBVIOUSLY. IT'S BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHWEST FOUR CORNER REGION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND UP AND DOWN...THE EASTERN SEABOARD LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. NEVADA IS PARTLY SUNNY AND QUITE CHILLY TODAY. THE HIGH IS 49 DEGREES. TAKE A LOOK AT AMES, IOWA. IT'S SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH IS 64. FINALLY, PETERSBURG, VIRGINIA IS SUNNY AND NICE. THE AFTERNOON HIGH IS 63.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME OUR WEEKLY VISIT FROM MACHINERY PETE...HE'S ON THE ROAD LOOKING AT COMBINES...IN THE DAKOTAS.
MACH PETE:
TODAY MACHINERY PETE IS ON THE ROAD...HITTING THE AUCTION BLOCK IN A COUPLE BLUSTERY LOCATIONS. HE SAYS FOR THOSE LOOKING AT COMBINES, THIS FALL MAY DELIVER AN OPPORTUNITY.
HAYES BAYLES:
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THIS RESIDENT’S IN LUCAS COUNTY IOWA ARE SHOWING THEIR ARTISTIC SKILLS THIS HALLOWEEN WEEKEND. THE ANNUAL HAY BALE ART CONTEST FEATURES 30 ENTRIES IN THE SMALL IOWA TOWN. CATS, CATTLE AND CATERPILLARS AND OTHER CLEVER CHARACATERS ARE CREATED WITH CANS OF "COLOR". TOWN RESIDENTS WILL SELECT THE WINNER.
ITC CITY TO FARM:
THIS WEEK WE'RE DOING A SERIES OF IN THE COUNTRY REPORTS...FOCUSED ON LIFE AND PROJECTS ASSOCIATED WITH COUNTRY LIVING. TODAY WE'LL MEET A CHICAGO COUPLE WHO LEFT THEIR CITY LIFE BEHIND…TO START A NEW LIFE IN RURAL INDIANA.
AG DAY'S NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN SHOWS US HOW THEY'RE ADJUSTING TO GETTING THEIR BOOTS MUDDY WHILE STARTING UP A NEW BUSINESS.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

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