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AgDay Daily Recap -November 4, 2014

08:57AM Nov 04, 2014

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 4, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY ONE U.S. GRAIN IS RAPIDLY GAINING IN POPULARITY IN ASIA. A LOOK AT THE SORGHUM EXPORT EXPLOSION...IN AGRIBUSINESS...WHAT DOES A MARKET BEAR LEARN WHEN THE MARKET IS NOT BEARISH. SO OVER TRADE YOUR ACCOUNT KNOWS HOW MUCH CASH FLOW WHICH YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE AND PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED. THE DAIRY CHECKOFF IS MAKING BIG INVESTMENTS IN ORDER TO INCREASE FLUID MILK SALES. AND SHOPS CAN BE ESSENTIAL ON THE FARM....WE'VE GOT LESSONS AND THINGS TO THINK ABOUT FROM AN INDIANA PRODUCER AS HE RACES TO BUILD HIS FIRST FARM SHOP. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
CROP PROGRESS:
THANKS BETSY. THE USDA CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS 65-PERCENT OF SORGHUM IS NOW HARVESTED. THAT'S JUST A FEW POINTS OFF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. AND SPEAKING OF AVERAGE HARVEST, THE MAJOR GRAINS MAKING SOME MAJOR GAIN IN THE LAST WEEK...
CORN NOW 65 PERCENT HARVESTED. THAT'S A BIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST WEEK....NOW JUST 8 POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. EVEN THE BIG I STATES TIPPING SCALES IN THE AVERAGE PACE DIRECTION. AND SOYBEAN HARVEST IS NOW BACK ON PACE...83 PERCENT IS CUT. KENTUCKY, INDIANA, OHIO, MISSOURI AND MICHIGAN ARE ALL STILL BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.
MICHIGAN BEARS:
IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, FARMER JERRY VARNER HARVESTED THE LAST OF HIS SOYBEANS ON SUNDAY. THIS WAS TWO DAYS AFTER A RAINY, SNOWY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. BUT SINCE THIS FIELD IS HEAVY IN SAND IT DRIED QUICKLY. JERRY DIDN'T TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC YIELDS, BUT HE DID SAY THEY ARE ABOVE A-P-H FOR THIS AREA.
WATERWAYS BILL:
WHEN CONGRESS RETURNS ON THE 12TH, THE INDUSTRY'S WATERWAYS COUNCIL IS HOPING INLAND WATERWAYS GET ATTENTION. ACCORDING TO SENIOR V-P DEBRA COLBERT, PROJECTS ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS COULD SEE NEW LIFE IN THE LAME DUCK CONGRESS. SHE SAYS THE LONG RUNNING EFFORT TO BOOST FUNDING FOR LOCKS AND DAMS AND OTHER CONSTRUCTION SHOULD GET SOME ATTENTION IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. COLBERT SAYS ITS LIKELY CONGRESS WILL SWEEP ALL THE UNFINISHED SPENDING BILLS INTO ONE OMNIBUS BILL.
CHINA APPLE:
USDA ALSO ANNOUNCING CHINA HAS LIFTED ITS SUSPENSION OF RED AND GOLDEN DELICIOUS APPLE IMPORTS FROM WASHINGTON STATE. IN 2012 CHINA SUSPENDED ACCESS FOR THOSE WASHINGTON VARIETIES CITING THE REPEATED INTERCEPTION OF THREE APPLE PESTS.USDA SAYS IT’S BEEN ABLE TO ADDRESS CHINA'S CONCERNS. THAT EXPORT MARKET WAS VALUED AT $6.5 MILLION IN 2011.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BOB UTTERBACK MARKETING BOB ONE OF THE THINGS AND YOUR KNOWN AS A BEAR WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THAT AND I'VE ASKED HOW A BEAR WAS GOING TO RESPOND TO THE MARKETS AND I'M GOING TO ASK YOU ANOTHER QUESTION WHAT DID THE BEAR LEARN WITH THIS UNEXPECTED RALLY. AND THE WORD IS UNEXPECTED YOU KNOW OCTOBER 1 WE HAD THE OCTOBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT IT HAD BEARISH REACTION TO IT THAT FRIDAY THE BEAR WAS REALLY FEELING COCKY FUNDAMENTALLY AND THEN MONDAY CAME IN WE GET IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WEEK EVERYBODY WAS KIND OF WHOA WHAT HAPPENED AND WE RALLIED AND WE'RE SO ENUMERATED BUT FIRST OF ALL WE FORGOTTEN BEANS THAT THE TIGHT STOCK THAT THIS PIPELINE WAS RAZOR SHARP AND WE WE'RE GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE PENDING INCREASED SUPPLY THEN THE TIGHT STOCKS AND THEN THE WEATHER DISRUPTED US SO IT STOPPED THE TRENDS FLOOR OF PRODUCT INTO THE SYSTEM AT A TIME WHEN THE MEAL BUYERS CAME IN AND DID A BIG NO DEC PURCHASE AND THAT WAS MAINLY FOR EASTERN PRODUCERS BUT THE EASTERN PRODUCERS WEREN'T GETTING THE BEANS AND THE RAIL CARS COULDN'T COME FROM THE SOUTH I MEAN FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO WE HAD A DISTRIBUTION BOTTLE NECK COULDN'T GET THE BEANS AND THEY HAD TO BUY THEMSELVES OUT THE BOTTOM LINE THIS UNEXPECTED EVEN NOBODY SAW ALMOST A 100 DOLLAR MEAL SURGE IN LESS THAN 30 DAYS ONE OF THE BIGGEST RALLIES IN HISTORY FOR POULTRY PRODUCER IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER THE STORY IS VOLATILITY YOU HAVE TO HAVE A CAP ON YOUR CASH FLOW AS YOUR LOOKING FORWARD I THINK THIS TYPE OF SURPRISE EVENTS WILL OCCUR BOTH THE BULL AND BEAR SIDE IN THE FUTURE SO OVER TRADE YOUR ACCOUNT KNOW HOW MUCH CASH FLOW WHICH YOUR GOING TO HAVE AND PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED AND DON'T BE AFRAID TO ACT BUT ALSO HAVE A GAME PLAN WHAT IF YOUR WRONG AND THAT MEANS USING AN OPTION TYPE PLAY I THINK IN THE IS THE BIGGEST LESSONS I HAVE LEARNED OUT OF THIS WHOLE BEAR MARKET. OKAY THANK YOU BOB UTTERBACK HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
DTR ALFALFA PRODUCTION:
FROM THE PRODUCT TO THE PRODUCERS....COWS MAY HAVE A GOOD WINTER IN TERMS OF HAY. USDA REPORTING ALFALFA PRODUCTION IS ON TRACK TO HIT A RECORD THIS YEAR.
IT FORECASTS 64 AND A HALF MILLION TONS OF ALFALA AND ALFALFA MIXED HAY TO BE GROWN IN 2014. THAT'S UP 12 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR. BOTH ACREAGE AND YIELD PER ACRE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO HIGHER.

 

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