AgDay Daily Recap -October 28, 2014

October 28, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
OCTOBER 28, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - IT'S BEEN SLOW GOING THIS HARVEST SEASON. BUT ARE COMBINES PICKING UP THE PACE. WE HAVE A CROP PROGRESS UPDATE FROM USDA. IN AGRIBUSINESS....THE STORAGE DILEMMA...RUSSIA CONSIDERS OPENING IT'S BORDERS TO MILK FROM INDIA. AND CAMPAIGNING IN RURAL ALASKA...THIS ELECTION MAY JUST COME DOWN TO THE PRICE OF FOOD. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
CROP PROGRESS:
IT SHOWS CORN HARVEST IS STILL TRAILING, WHILE FARMERS FOCUS ON SOYBEANS. 46-PERCENT OF CORN IS HARVESTED UP 15 POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. BUT STILL NEARLY 20 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE...THE TOP CORN STATE OF IOWA IS 29 POINTS BEHIND.
SLOW HARVEST:
WHILE A COOL MILD SUMMER FOR MUCH OF COUNTRY IS HELPING PUSH YIELDS INTO RECORD TERRITORY. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF WEATHER CHALLENGES ALONG THE WAY. THAT INCLUDES LATER SUMMER AND EARLY FALL RAINS--KEEPING COMBINES OUT OF FIELDS AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE TO GET HARVEST FINISHED.
IOWA WATER RULE:
MEANWHILE IN IOWA, CLEAN WATER REGULATIONS FOR LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS ARE NOW IN EFFECT. THE RULES ESTABLISH NEW INSPECTIONS AND ENFORCEMENT OF MANURE SPILLS THAT POLLUTE WATERWAYS. IN 2007 ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS URGED THE EPA TO REVOKE IOWA'S AUTHORITY TO MANAGE LIVESTOCK FARMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON WATER. E-P-A OFFICIALS SAID IOWA DNR WAS FAILING TO ADEQUATELY INSPECT FARMS, WASN'T LEVYING FINES FOR VIOLATORS AND WASN'T ISSUING PERMITS TO POLLUTERS. BUT AFTER A YEAR'S WORTH OF NEGOTIATIONS, IOWA HAS NEW RULES IN PLACE THAT EPA HAS AGREED TO.
PIG FIRE:
A MASSIVE FIVE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA KILLED THOUSANDS OF HOGS OVER THE WEEKEND. COUGAR RUN FARM ---NEAR THE TOWN OF TRUMAN-- LOST HALF OF THE FARM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO ONE WAS HURT BUT 4-THOUSAND SOWS AND 6-7 THOUSAND PIGLETS DIED IN THE BLAZE. THE CAUSE IS UNDER INVESTIGATION.
CROP WATCH:
BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT TODAY TO HARVEST, WE HAVE A POWERFUL REMINDER OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN SO QUICKLY. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH.
CME REPORT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS IT WAS ANOTHER RALLY DAY FOR COMMODITY MARKETS.
GRAINS,  AND LIVESTOCK BOTH FINDING THEIR WAY INTO THE GREEN MORE NOW FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
SOME FARMERS ARE CHOOSING TO STORE MORE OF THIS YEARS HARVEST, HOPING PRICES WILL REBOUND. SHOULD YOU STORE ON-FARM OR AT A COMMERCIAL ELEVATOR? FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TAKES A LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS.
ANALYSIS MAGUIRE:
ANGIE MAGUIRE, CITIZENS GRAIN'S OUR GUEST AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. WERE TALKING ABOUT ONE THING, WELL ABOUT GRAIN PRIMARILY... BOTH EITHER CORN OR BEANS OR WHEAT IF YOU HAVE THAT KIND OF THING…BUT SHOULD YOU STORE, IF YOU HAVE STORAGE, OR SHOULD YOU MARKET IF YOU CAN MARKET OR WHAT SHOULD YOU DO ACTUALLY IF YOU'VE GOT MORE STORAGE THAN YOU NEED. YOU PROBABLY RENT IT YOUR NAME. IF YOU WANTED TO YEAH YOU COULD FIND SOME WAYS TO MAKE MONEY ON STORAGE. IF YOU HAVE ON FARM STORAGE YOU SHOULD DEFINITELY BE LOOKING AT WAYS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CARRY THAT'S DEVELOPED IN THE MARKET. YOU KNOW WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT FROM A MARKET FUNDAMENTAL STAND POINT, THE MARKETS TELLING YOU TO SELL BEANS…WEVE SEEN THE SPREAD, WHAT THE MARKETS PAYING YOU TO HOLD ON TO THOSE...START TO COME IN AND I THINK YOU'LL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THAT. AS WE NEED MORE BEANS COME TO THE MARKETPLACE VERSUS HOLDING ON TO THEM. OUR, OUR EXPORT DEMAND IS VERY FRONT LOADED. OUR PIPELINE WAS EXTREMELY EMPTY AT THE END OF THE YEAR. SO, I THINK YOU'LL BASICALLY SEE A CONTINUATION OF TRYING TO DISCOURAGE THE FARMER FROM KEEPING HIS BEANS OUT OF THE MARKETPLACE. AND LET THE MARKET TELL YOU WHAT TO DO WITH THAT. IF IT COMES DOWN TO IT AND YOU CAN SELL BEANS AND CAN MAKE MONEY, THEN THAT'S GREAT. ON FARM STORAGE RIGHT NOW CORN, UM, THERES 30 CENTS WORTH OF CARRY BETWEEN HERE AND THE MAY. BASIS SHOULD AT LEAST STAY STEADY. AND THE COST OF CARRY BASED ON, DEPENDING ON WHAT YOU’RE COST TO MONEY IS AND WHAT YOUR OPPORTUNITY PRICE IS. COST OF CARRY IS AROUND ABOUT 4 CENTS A MONTH FOR CORN. SO IF YOU CAN OFF SET WHAT IT COSTS YOU TO HOLD IT WITH SOME SOLID SALES GOING OUT FORWARD, THEN IT'S A GREAT IDEA. I DID HAVE A CUSTOMER ASK NOT TOO LONG AGO, OUT FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA AREA. HE'S GOT A DESCEND BASIS OPPORTUNITY FOR JUNE CORN, AND HE'S WONDERING WHAT HE SHOULD DO AND MY MIND SET ON SOMETHING LIKE THAT IF YOU CAN LOCK IN A GOOD BASIS. AND THE FUTURES PRICES RALLIED RECENTLY. IT DEFINITELY DOESN'T HURT TO GET THAT SOLD, GATHER THE CARRY THAT’S OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. GATHER THE BASIS FIRMING, BECAUSE NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE IS WILLING TO SELL DEFERRED GRAIN, SO THE BASIS HAS BEEN STRONGER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AND THEN IF YOU’RE REALLY NERVOUS THAT THE MARKET COULD MOVE HIGHER COVER THE UPSIDE WITH A CALL. AND THAT WILL LOCK IN YOUR FLOOR AND ALLOW YOU TO NOT ONLY BASICALLY REWARD YOURSELF FOR STORAGE, BUT ALSO TO SELL IT AT SOME GOOD LEVELS AND HAVE SOME UPSIDE. THE BIG THING, THE BIGGEST THING IS TO REMEMBER YOU KNOW THAT STORAGE ISN'T FREE. AND THAT' S WHY YOUR COMMERCIAL ELEVATORS CAN CHARGE YOU SOMETHING. IT'S NOT FREE. AND THAT FROM THE COMMERCIAL SIDE ASPECT OF IT. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ON FARM STORAGE, JUST BE AWARE YOUR NOT GONNA SPEND MORE THAN YOU HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE. HOPING THAT SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE HOPE IS NOT THE MARKETING STRATEGY WHEN IT COMES TO STORING GRAIN…OK, THAN YOU VERY MUCH…ANGIE MAGUIRE HAS BEEN OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY. BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT...
DTR STRAY ELECTRICITY:
IN DAIRY NEWS - A MINNESOTA JUDGE HAS AWARDED SIX MILLION DOLLARS TO A FARM FAMILY WHOSE MILK COWS WERE INJURED OR KILLED BY STRAY VOLTAGE ON THEIR DAIRY FARM.
DTR RUSSIA INDIA:
RUSSIA'S BAN ON FOOD IMPORTS FROM THE U-S, EUROPE, AUSTRALIA AND CANADA MAY BENEFIT THE DAIRY SECTOR IN INDIA. ACCORDING TO THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS NEWS, FOOD AND AG INSPECTORS FROM RUSSIA WILL BE INSPECTING MILK PROCESORS IN INDIA THIS WEEK. THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS REPORTS THAT INDIAN DAIRY COMPANIES WILL SEEK CERTIFICATION, WHICH WOULD ALLOW THEM TO RESUME EXPORTS OF DAIRY PRODUCTS TO RUSSIA.  RUSSIA STOPPED IMPORTS FROM INDIA YEARS AGO DUE TO AN OUTBREAK OF HOOF AND MOUTH DISEASE.
EU CLIMATE:
EUROPEAN LEADERS AGREED ON FRIDAY TO CUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE 28-NATION BLOC TO AT LEAST 40 PERCENT BELOW 1990 LEVELS BY 2030. LEADERS AT THE E-U SUMMIT ALSO AGREED TO INCREASED USEAGE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, THE FRENCH PRESIDENT SAID IF EUROPE HAD NOT REACHED THIS AGREEMENT, HOW CAN IT EXPECT THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA TO FOLLOW THEIR EXAMPLE.
ITC ALASKA ELECTION:
REPUBLICANS NEED TO PICK UP SIX SEATS TO WIN CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE. THEY LIKE THEIR CHANCES IN ALASKA...BUT DEMOCRATS ARE NOT READY TO GIVE-UP THAT SEAT. EMILY ROSEMAN SAYS BOTH SIDES ARE INVESTING IN AN UNPRECEDENTED EFFORT IN RURAL ALASKA TO GET OUT THE VOTE.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

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