Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.

AgDay Daily Recap -October 9, 2014

07:57AM Oct 09, 2014

TODAY ON AGDAY
OCTOBER 9, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - AN EYE ON DAIRY MARKETS... I'M MICHELLE ROOK. THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY IS RIDING THE WAVE OF A STRONG MILK MARKET. HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? I'LL HAVE DETAILS TODAY HERE FROM WORLD DAIRY EXPO ON AGDAY. PLUS, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO REBUILD THE NATION'S CATTLE HERD. IN AGRIBUSINESS...MARKETING STRATEGIES BEYOND 2014…I WOULD BE MOVING AND TAKING THAT BASIS BID THOSE EARLY BASIS BID IMMEDIATELY AND MOVING THE PRODUCT AND MOVE IT MORE AND A GROWING PROBLEM ALONG THE NATION'S RALWAYS...AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
ROOK DAIRY OUTLOOK:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AFTER SEVERAL DISASTROUS YEARS, THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY IS FINALLY BACK IN THE BLACK. BUT WHAT'S THE 'SHELF LIFE"?...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
USMEF REPORTS:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT, NEW U.S MEAT EXPORT NUMBERS FOR AUGUST, SHOWS EXPORT VOLUMES FALLING. AND WHILE THE AMOUNT OF PRODUCT BEING SHIPPED IS LOWER YEAR OVER YEAR...WHAT ITS WORTH IS IN RECORD TERRITORY.
DERRELL PEEL:
I THINK THE SOONEST WE COULD DO IT IS ABOUT 2017 2018 PROBABLY MORE LIKELY 2018 JUST TO RECOVER THE 1.9 MILLION BEEF COWS WE LOST FROM THE DROUGHT. I THINK THE MARKET CONDITIONS IT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON WHAT THEY LOOK LIKE AT THAT TIME BUT THERE'S PROBABLY ADDITIONAL EXPANSION BEYOND THAT LEVEL THAT WILL BE NEEDED. SO WE'RE PROBABLY TALKING ABOUT BEING IN EXPANSION MODE ASSUMING MOTHER NATURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERMIT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DECADE.
BRAD RIPPEY:
WILL WE - OR WON'T WE - SEE THE WEATHER PHENOMENON KNOWN AS EL NINO MAKE A RETURN THIS YEAR? LATER THIS MORNING FEDERAL WEATHER FORECASTERS WILL RELEASE THEIR LATEST FORECAST.
TEASE:
THANKS MIKE. STILL TO COME WE'LL MAKE OUR DAILY STOP AT THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE. PLUS FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL HAS SOME MARKETING IDEAS IF YOU STILL HAVE 2013 GRAIN IN THE BIN.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK IS BOB UTTERBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING BOB ONE OF THE THINGS I'D LIKE TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT IS PROBABLY TERMS IN MARKETING THERE'S A LOT OF CORN SOME BEANS STILL LEFT FROM THE 13 CROP YEAR WE'RE HARVEST NOW THE 14 CROP YEAR AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO GO INTO 15 CROP YEAR AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE ANY END TO BIN STORAGE SPACE. IT'S IT WE I THINK WE GOT TO WE GOT TO DO SOME TRIAGE….OKAY…LET'S FIRST TALK ABOUT THE 014 AND IF YOU GOT CORN IN THE BIN THAT'S 014 LET'S JUST PUT THE 013 WITH 014. ROLL IT TOGETHER. ROLL IT TOGETHER NOW IF YOU HAVE CORN AND IN THE BIN RIGHT NOW THERE'S SOME VERY STRONG BASIS BIDDING BE OFFERED FOR ETHANOL PLANT STILL IN THE MIDWEST FOR CORN. RIGHT…FOR CORN SO I WOULD BE MOVING AND TAKING THAT BASIS BID THOSE EARLY BASIS BID IMMEDIATELY AND MOVING THE PRODUCT AND MOVE IT MOVE  GET RID OF THIS STUFF IF YOU HAVE THOSE OPPORTUNITIES SECONDLY I WOULD STORE ON FARM I WOULD STORE THE CORN OVER THE BEANS BECAUSE THERE'S CARRY IN THE CORN NOT CARRY IN THE BEANS SO IT'S A STORAGE DECISION THIRD I WOULD DO EVERYTHING I CAN TO STORE ON FARM FIRST BECAUSE GUYS ARE LOOKING AT GOING AND DOING FREE DP TO JANUARY FEBRUARY AND PAYING 28 TO 30 CENTS AND THE CARRY THE COTS IS EQUAL TO THE CARRY AND THE ONLY WAY THEY'RE GOING TO MAKE MONEY IS A FLAT PRICE RALLY WHICH WE COULD THERE'S I THINK THERE'S I THINK THERE'S A 70 30 CHANCE THE ULTIMATE LOWS IN THIS MARKET WILL BE IN THE JANUARY FEBRUARY TIME PERIOD SO YOU'RE GOING TO BE WITH 20 CENTS INVESTED YOU'RE GOING TO BE BEHIND AND YOU'RE GOING NEED A 28 CENTS JUST TO BREAK EVEN YOU NEED A 50 CENT RALLY TO REALLY JUSTIFY AND I WOULD ARGUE YOU SHOULDN'T BE STORING ON COMMERCIAL STORAGE MOVE IT GET YOUR CASH FLOW AND IF YOUR STILL BULLISH LOOK AT A PAPER POSITION RATHER THAN THE BOARD POSITION BECAUSE YOU WON'T LOSE 28 CENTS A PAPER POSITION BUT YOU WILL ON THE BIN.  SO THAT'S 1 2 3 WHAT YOU NEED TO DO BOB UTTERBACK MARKETING OUR GUEST HERE.
ANALYSIS UTTERBACK:
TO TALK WITH BOB ONE ON ONE CALL UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES TOLL FREE AT 800-832-1488
PROFIT BRIEFING PROMO:
WE'LL GET YOU READY FOR USDA'S CROP PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND REPORTS IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING, FRIDAY ON AGDAY.

BB NEW HOLLAND:
WHEN MOST OF YOUR CORN GOES TO CLEANER BURNING ETHANOL PRODUCTION THAT SUPPORTS LOCAL JOBS, THAT'S NEW HOLLAND SMART. VISIT NEW HOLLAND SMART.COM TO LEARN MORE ABOUT RON CLAUSON.
E85 PRICING:
ARE RETAILER PRICE GOUGING DRIVERS THAT USE E-85? THAT'S WHAT A NEW STUDY FROM THE RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION SUGGESTS. IT FOCUSED ON SALES IN THE ST LOUIS AREA OVER THE SUMMER. IT FOUND ON AVERAGE E-85 PRICES WERE 12 PERCENT BELOW GASOLINE WHEN BUYING IT WHOLESALE---OR FOR THE STATION TO BUY IT. BUT THE BIOFUEL WAS BEING SOLD ON AVERAGE ONE PERCENT ABOVE GASOLINE PRICES...FOR CONSUMERS.
BB MACHINERY PETE GUIDE:
ORDER MACHINERY PETES NEW CLASSIC TRACTOR PRICE GUIDE WITH FIVE YEARS OF AUCTION PRICE DATA JUST $29.95 INCLUDING SHIPPING. GO TO SHOPFARMJOURNAL.COM

Tags: