AgDay Daily Recap- Sept. 7, 2016

September 7, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
SEPT. 7, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP ON AGDAY -ANOTHER MEGA MERGER CONTINUES FORWARD. PLUS PRODUCER SENTIMENT DROPS FOLLOWING A DIP IN COMMODITY PRICES. IN AGRIBUSINESS...HOW MUCH CAN BIGGER YIELDS HELP OVERCOME PRICES. I DON'T THINK 170.2 THE MARKET DIDN'T EVEN BAT AN EYE. MEET A CALIFORNIA DAIRY FARMER USING DIVERSIFICATION TO KEEP HIS OPERATION PROFITABLE IN 2016. AND RESEARCHERS HELP AFRICAN COCOA FARMERS FIGHT AGAINST AN AGRESSIVE PEST.
BAYER SEEKS TO MAKE MONSANTO PROPOSAL MORE ENTICING:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN A HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN THE U-S, BUT IT APPEARS NEGOTIATORS FOR GERMANY-BASED BAYER SPENT THE TIME TRYING TO MAKE THEIR OFFER FOR MONSANTO MORE ENTICING. THE TWO AGRI-BUSINESS GIANTS CONFIRM FURTHER TALKS OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND OF BAYER'S PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF MONSANTO. THE NEW OFFER IS 127-DOLLARS-50-CENTS A SHARE FOR MONSANTO STOCK. THAT'S TWO PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFER. BAYER'S OFFER IN MAY WAS 125 DOLLARS. THE ST. LOUIS-BASED COMPANY REJECTED THE OFFER, SAYING IT WAS TOO LOW. MONSANTO CONFIRMS IT RECEIVED A NEW OFFER. IN A NEWS RELEASE MONSANTO SAID IT CONTINUES "THESE CONVERSATIONS AS IT EVALUATES THIS PROPOSAL, AS WELL AS PROPOSALS FROM OTHER PARTIES". NO WORD ON WHO THOSE "OTHER PARTIES" MAY BE. THE STATEMENT GOES ON TO SAY MONSANTO SAYS IT'S LOOKING AT OTHER STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES TO ENABLE ITS BOARD OF DIRECTORS TO DETERMINE IF A TRANSACTION IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF ITS SHAREOWNERS CAN BE REALIZED."
MONTHLY AG ECONOMY BAROMETER:
AS GRAIN PRICES CONTINUE TO FLOUNDER, IT'S WEIGHING HEAVILY ON FARMERS ATTITUDES ABOUT THE ECONOMY. PURDUE UNIVERSITY -ALONG WITH THE CME-JUST RELEASING THEIR MONTHLY AG ECONOMY BAROMETER. AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENT, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THREE-DOLLAR CASH CORN PUSHED THOSE SENTIMENTS SOUTH. BASED ON A MONTHLY SURVEY OF 400 FARMERS ACROSS THE U-S, THE BAROMETER INDEX FELL TO 95. THAT'S DOWN FROM ONE-HUNDRED-12 IN JULY. PURDUE ECONOMISTS SAY THE 17-POINT DROP FROM JULY TO AUGUST WAS THE LARGEST ONE-MONTH DECLINE IN THEIR BAROMETER SINCE NOVEMBER 2015.
USDA PLANNING TO INCREASE FARM LOANS:
JUST BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE USDA ANNOUNCING PLANS TO INCREASE FUNDING FOR FARM LOANS. THE AG DEPARTMENT NOW WITH 185-MILLION DOLLARS TO HELP NEARLY 2THOUSAND APPLICANTS WAITING FOR OPERATING LOANS FROM THE FARM SERVICE AGENCY. FSA LOANS ARE IN HIGHER DEMAND THIS YEAR, GIVEN THE FARM ECONOMY. THE MONEY SHOULD HELP COVER ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE LOAN BACK LOG AHEAD OF THE START OF NEXT FISCAL YEAR.
A NEW YEAR AND FRESH FUNDING BEGINS IN OCTOBER.
FIRE AT USDA:
AND TAKE A LOOK AT THIS VIDEO SHOT BY A PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER WITH THE RESPONDING FIRE DEPARTMENT IN PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY, MARYLAND.. A FIRE BROKE OUT AT THIS USDA FACILITY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ONE OF THE SAME AG DEPARTMENT FACILITIES THAT CLOSED LAST WEEK DUE TO ANONYMOUS THREATS. LOCAL NEWS SOURCES SAY FEDERAL ATF OFFICIALS WERE ON SCENE AS WELL.
MILK MAGAZINE:
THIS YEAR, IN PARTNERSHIP WITH OUR FRIENDS AT FARM JOURNAL'S MILK MAGAZINE WE'RE PROFILING SOME OF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE DAIRY FARMERS IN THE COUNTRY. TODAY WE INTRODUCE YOU TO A PRODUCER IN CALIFORNIA DIVERSIFYING HIS OPERATION NOT JUST BECAUSE OF LOWER MILK PRICES BUT BECAUSE OF THE CHALLENGES HE FACES FROM FARMING IN THE GOLDEN STATE. BETSY JIBBEN HAS OUR SEPTEMBER MILK MAGAZINE COVER STORY. "THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER OFFICES. JUST A GREAT VIEW"TAKE A RIDE WITH CALIFORNIA DAIRY PRODUCER GREG HOOKER.... "THIS SORGHUM TAKES ABOUT 2/3RDS OF THE WATER AS CORN. WITH OUR DROUGHT, WE'VE HAD TO CHANGE SOME DIFFERENT CROPS,"FROM SORGHUM TO SOLAR ENERGY YOU'LL SEE SIGNS OF DIVERSIFICATION OUT OF EVERY WINDOW. "MY DAIRY ITSELF USES 1 MGWATT PER YEAR. THE REST IS USED TO PUMP GROUNDWATER FOR THE CROP.">(TALKING ABOUT SOLAR PANNELS. SHOW SHOTS DRIVING BY PIECES OF THE BUSINESS LINING THE ROAD TO HIS MAIN INVESTMENT: A 45HUNDRED HEAD HOLSTEIN DAIRY. IT'S AN INDUSTRY HE MARRIED INTO AND THE REASON HE STARTED FARMING. "MY JOKE IS HOW DID I END UP IN CALIFORNIA? WELL, A WOMAN BROUGHT ME HERE!"REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.
CROP COMMENTS:
MIKE HOFFMAN IS BACK TODAY WITH OUR LOOK AT CROP COMMENTS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. HERMINE LEFT HER MARK ALONG THE EAST COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA. DE-MOCK MANN OF HYDE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA TWEETED OUT THIS PHOTO AS HE'S ATTEMPTING TO RUN HIS COMBINE. HE SAID "ALWAYS FUN TO PICK CORN AFTER A STORM". YOU CAN SEE THE SLOP HE IS TRYING TO RUN THROUGH IN PART OF HIS FIELD. NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR PAT MC-RORY TOURED FARMS SUNDAY HIT BY THE TEN INCH RAINFALL.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL TALK HARVEST AND YIELDS INCLUDING THE OVERALL IMPACT OF CROP SIZE ON PRICES. LATER IN THE SHOW, WE'RE HEADED TO THE IVORY COAST TO SEE HOW SCIENTISTS ARE HELPING TO SAVE THE COCOA CROP FROM HUNGRY CATERPILLARS.
AGRIBUSINESS:
IN AGRIBUSINESS--AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, LETS SEE HOW MARKETS CLOSED IN THEIR FIRST FULL DAY OF TRADE. WE OPENED UP SHARPLY LOWER IN THE FEEDER CATTLE, THE FAT CATTLE, AND ALSO IN THE HOGS. WE SAW A LITTLE BIT OF A REBOUND AFTER THE OPEN BUT STILL MOSTLY IN THE RED. UH A LOT OF THE NUMBERS HAVE NOT BEEN GOOD, TECHNICALLY THE MARKET ACTS VERY VERY POORLY. YOU KNOW IT LOOKED LIKE WE HAD A REVERSAL TO THE UPSIDE GOING IN THE CATTLE AND ALSO THE FEEDER CATTLE LAST WEEK ON TUESDAY BUT THAT WE SAW NOTHING BUT SELLING PRESSURE. AFTER THAT. WE'RE GETTING AWFULLY CHEAP HERE AND INTO SOME MULTI MONTH AND MULTI YEAR LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES.
 CME:
SEPTEMBER IS USUALLY THE MONTH THAT WE START TO SEE SOME HARVEST PRESSURE EMERGE IN THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS. GENERALLY WE START TO KICK THINGS OFF IN THE SOUTH AND MOVING TO THE HEART OF THE CORN BELT BY LATER IN THE MONTH. SO SEPTEMBER HISTORICALLY SPEAKING IS KIND OF A POOR MONTH IN TERMS OF PRICE PERFORMANCE OF ROW CROP MARKETS. I THINK IN A YEAR LIKE THIS WHERE WE GOT HELP CARRY IN AND HEALTHY BEGINNING STOCKS AND WE'VE GOT RECORD CROPS EXPECTED WE CAN EXPECT SOME OF IT. SAME TO SOME EXTENT AT LEAST. NOW A LOT OF THE BEARISHNESS IS CERTAINLY PRICED INTO THE MARKET. I JUST FEEL LIKE THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF CASH GRAIN THAT NEEDS TO BE MOVED. THERE'S GOING TO BE A COMPETITION FOR STORAGE SPACE HERE IN THIS COUNTRY BECAUSE WE HAVE BIG CROPS. SO SEPTEMBER COULD BE KIND OF A ROCKY MONTH AND IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF WE CAN EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE IN THESE MARKETS. AGAIN JOE VACLAVIK STANDARD GRAIN FROM THE FLOOR OF CME GROUP. AS YIELD POTENTIAL TURNS TO HARVEST REALITY, THE INDUSTRY IS WONDERING HOW MUCH AN INCREASE IN BUSHELS CAN HELP OVERCOME LOWER GRAIN PRICES.
AGRIBUSINESS:
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US WITH MORE ON THAT DISCUSSION IN TODAY'S ANALYSIS. WELCOME BACK HERE NOW WITH MATT BENNETT OF BENNETT CONSULTING ALL RIGHT MATT WE HAD THIS PRO FARMER CROP TOUR YOU'RE ON IT YOU SAW THAT THAT POSSIBLY THIS THIS RECORD CORN CROP MAY BE ISN'T THERE BUT WE STILL HAVE A BIG CORN CROP SO MATT IN YOUR OPINION WHAT DOES YIELD HAVE TO BE IN ORDER TO REALLY MOVE PRICES HIGHER WELL YOU KNOW GOING INTO THE CROP I THOUGHT YOU KNOW WE MIGHT SHAVE A FEW BUSHELS OFF. YOU HEAR PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT THEIR CROP HERE AND THERE BUT I DIDN'T REALIZE HOW MUCH WE WERE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED. IN STATES LIKE FOR INSTANCE LIKE NEBRASKA I WAS THERE FOR A DAY AND A HALF AND WE WERE IN IRRIGATED FIELDS PROBABLY TWO THIRDS OF FIELDS I WAS IN WE NEVER FOUND A 200 BUSHEL YEILD. I KNOW A LOT OF GUYS THAT DID FIND CROPS SCOUTS BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE WERE PRETTY DISAPPOINTED. WHAT'S IT GOING TO TAKE THOUGH NATIONWIDE TO REALLY MOVE THE MARKET I DON'T THINK ONE SEVENTY POINT TWO THE MARKET DIDN'T EVEN BAT AN EYE. OBVIOUSLY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IN MY OPINION YOU HAVE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW ONE SEVENTIES I THINK YOU PROBABLY HAVE TO GET BACK CLOSER THAN ONE SIXTY
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE LAST WEEK WE'RE WATCHING TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTH, THE GULF COAST, AND EAST COAST. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN MEXICO. YEA, AND IT'S COMING INTO THE SOUTHWEST OBVIOUSLY SO WE STILL HAVE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE EAST COAST, STILL A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, KINDA MEANDERING THERE SOUTH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, IT'S STILL GOING TO EFFECT SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEWTON, TROPICAL STORM NEWTON, THAT WILL TURN INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRETTY QUICKLY HERE. BUT IT WILL DUMP SOME PRETTY GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN. LET'S PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION YOU CAN SEE HERMINE NOT MOVING MUCH. NEWTON IS. IT'S MOVING INTO A SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY TODAY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL YOU TYPICALLY IN A PATH ALONG THIS.AND A LOT OF TIMES A COMPUTER MODELS DON'T QUITE CATCH IT ALL. SO I COULD SEE A FOUR TO FIVE INCH RAINS IN PARTS OF THAT AREA THAT IT TYPICALLY CAUSES FLOODING IN SOME OF THOSE GULCHES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE HEAD TO FARMINGTON NEW MEXICO FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY PLEASANTLY WARM HIGH OF EIGHTY DEGREES. IRONWOOD MICHIGAN CLOUDY AND MILD A SHOWER THUNDERSTORM IS LIKELY HIGH OF SIXTY NINE. AND FINALLY RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA LOTS OF SUNSHINE HOT AND HUMID HIGH NINETY FOUR.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, OUR PARTNERS AT THE PACKER ARE HERE WITH A LOOK AT THE PRODUCE SIDE OF AG. AND LATER RESEARCHERS IN AFRICA ARE HELPING PROTECT THE LOCAL COCCO HARVEST FROM HUNGRY INSECTS.
WATERMELONS:
NEW DATA FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF WATERMELONS CONSUMED IN THE U.S. ARE PRODUCED DOMESTICALLY, BUT IMPORTS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY. USDA SAYS WATERMELON IMPORTS ACCOUNTED FOR 1.5 BILLION POUNDS, OR A THIRD OF DOMESTIC USE IN 2015, UP FROM 11 PERCENT IN 2000 AND JUST SEVEN PERCENT IN 1990. PART OF THE INCREASE IN IMPORTS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DECLINE WATERMELON ACREAGE IN THE UNITED STATES. USDA SAYS WATERMELON ACREAGE HAS DROPPED NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE LAST 25 YEARS.
ALMONDS:
ALMOND HARVEST IS UNDERWAY IN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS FROM THE CHOWCHILLA AREA. GROWER GREG HOOKER SAYS FARMERS WILL BE HARVESTING DIFFERENT VARIETIEIS UNTIL MID OCTOBER. HE SAYS LAST YEAR THE AREA SUFFERED DUE TO A DROUGHT. BUT THIS YEAR HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING A RECORD CROP. IT'S AN INDUSTRY DAIRY PRODUCERS HAVE INVESTED IN TO DIVERSIFY IN THE STATE. "IT'S REALLY EXPLODED OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS AS FAR AS ACREAGES AND YIELDS."HOOKER SAYS HE PRODUCES ROUGHLY 3 THOUSAND POUNDS PER ACRE.
TEASE:
UP NEXT A CHECK ON COCCO HARVEST FOR CHOCOLATE LOVERS...AS FARMERS AND RESEARCHERS TEAM UP TO PROTECT THE CROP FROM THESE HUNGRY CATERPILLARS.
IN THE COUNTRY:
WITH THIS COUNTRY'S LOVE FOR CHOCOLATE, HERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS ON THE COCOA FRONT. SCIENTISTS BELIEVE THEY HAVE THE UPPER HAND ON A VARIETY OF CATERPILLARS THAT HAVE AN AFFINITY FOR COCOA PLANTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT IN THE COUNTRY OF IVORY COAST, WHICH PRODUCES A THIRD OF THE WORLD'S COCOA. RESEARCHERS SAY AN INVASION OF THE PEST HAS BEEN FULLY EXTERMINATED. BUT THE LINGERING IMPACT MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE PRODUCTION LEVELS IN THE UPCOMING HARVEST. AN ESTIMATED 800-THOUSAND FARMERS IN THE WEST AFRICAN COUNTRY RELY ON COCOA TO EARN A LIVING.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR BETSY JIBBEN, TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THURSDAY ON AGDAY -LOW SOYBEAN PRICES THIS YEAR MAY HAVE A POSTIVE IMPACT ON MARKETS IN 2017. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY. PLUS THE LATEST CATTLE NEWS FROM OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS. TUNE IN WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

 

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