AgDay Daily Recap - August 8, 2018

August 8, 2018 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 8, 2018

HEADLINES

A NEW REPORT PUTS A DIM LIGHT ON FARMERS VIEW OF THE ECONOMY. NEW MEAT EXPORT DATA.  PREPARING FOR USDA'S LATEST CROP ESTIMATE. CAN THE UNITED KINGDOM PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD AFTER IT LEAVES THE  EUROPEAN UNION? AND PACKING-IN THE ALPACAS. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CHEVY SILVERADO, THE MOST DEPENDABLE, LONGEST-LASTING FULL SIZE PICKUPS ON THE ROAD. 

PURDUE AG BAROMETER
GOOD MORNING, I'M BETSY JIBBEN IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS.  THE AG ECONOMY BAROMETER, MEASURING FARMER SENTIMENTS FROM  AROUND THE NATION, PLUMMETING TO ITS LOWEST ONE-MONTH DECLINE IN NEARLY THREE YEARS.  THE PURDUE UNIVERSITY/CME AG ECONOMY BAROMETER, BASED ON A SURVEY  WITH HUNDREDS OF PRODUCERS AND AGRI BUSINESSES, DROPPING  26 POINTS,  DOWN TO AN INDEX OF 117 IN JULY. THE DROP IN SENTIMENT FUELING WITH  TRADE WAR CONCERNS AND DECREASING COMMODITY PRICES. "IN OUR JULY SURVEY, 54 PERCENT OF OUR RESPONDENTS SAID THEY EXPECTED A TRADE WAR. AND THEN  WHEN WE ASKED THE IMPACT ON INCOME. OVER 70 PERCENT OF HTE RESPONDENTS WHO EXPECT AN IMPACT, THEY THOUGHT THEIR INCOME WOULD DECLINE BY 10 PERCENT OR MORE. VERY CONCERNED WITH  THE TRADE ISSUES."SOME FARMERS FEELING THAT SAME SENTIMENTS WITH TRADE CONCERNS.  "WE HAVE TO HAVE FAIR TRADE ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT'S WHY I HOPE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS TRYING TO  NEOGTIATE WITH HIS BUSIENSS DEALINGS, THAT HE REALIZES THAT THE UNITED STATES IS GETTING UNFAIR  PRACTICES IN CERTAIN TRADE DEALS AND IT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT SOYBEANS HAVE CAUGHT HTE BRUNT OF  IT. BUT TO BE HONEST WITH YOU, SOYBEAMS HAVE BEEN MROE OF A TOPIC ON A LOT OF PEOLE THROUGHOUT THE THE COUNTRY, SO MORE POEPLE KNOW WHAT A SOYBEAN IS." MINTERT SAYING THE MOST NEGATIVE RESPONSE THIS TIME AROUND CAME  WHEN ASKED IF FARMERS ARE WILLING TO MAKE BIG INVESTMENTS. HE SAYS HE  HAS NOT RECEIVED THAT MANY NEGATIVE COMMENTS SINCE MARCH OF 2016.  "EVERY MONTH WE ASK THE QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO MAKE LARGE INVESTMENTS IN THEIR FARMING OPERATION. THE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO SAID THIS IS A BAD TIME  JUMPED TO 73 PERCENT FROM 60 PERCENT A MONTH EARLIER. IT'S A BIG CHANGE. IN FACT, WHEN YOU  LOOK AT THE WAY THAT QUESTION IS ANALYZED BETWEEN WHETHER IT'S A GOOD TIME OR A BAD TIME, IT  WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE RESPONSE WE GOT TO THAT QUESTION SINCE MARCH OF 2016," 

ADDITIONAL TARIFFS
LATE TUESDAY THE U-S TRADE REPRESENTATIVES OFFICE RELEASED ITS LIST OF  16-BILLION DOLLARS WORTH CHINESE GOODS THAT WILL BE ASSESSED 25- PERCENT IN ADDITIONAL TARIFFS. THIS IS THE SECOND PHASE OF THE 50-BILLION DOLLAR TARIFF PACKAGE. THE ADMINISTRATION SAYS THIS ACTION IS IN RESPONSE TO UNFAIR TRADE  PRACTICES AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THEFT BY CHINA. THIS LIST CONTAINS A NUMBER OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS, INCLUDING PISTONS  FOR TRACTORS, SOME SEED PLANTERS AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS. UNLESS THERE'S A CHANGE IN POLICY, THESE TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT IN TWO WEEKS.

CHINESE TRADE SECRETS
TWO CHINESE RESEARCHERS WERE CHARGED LAST WEEK WITH CONSPIRACY  TO STEAL TRADE SECRETS AFTER TAKING U.S. RICE TECHNOLOGY. A CASE  DATING BACK TO 2013.  ACCORDING TO REUTERS,  A U.S. GRAND JURY INDICTED TWO CHINESE RESEARCHERS FOR CONSPIRACY TO  STEAL TRADE SECRETS AND CONSPIRACY TO COMMITTEE INTERSTATE  TRANSPORTATION OF STOLEN PROPERTY. THE TWO TRAVELED TO ARKANSAS AND KANSAS TO VISIT RICE RESEARCH AND  PRODUCTION FACILITIES. U.S. CUSTOMS LATER FOUND STOLEN RICE SEEDS IN  THEIR LUGGAGE.  THE SEEDS WERE DEVELOPED BY VEN-TREE-AH BIOSCIENCE WHICH USES TECHNOLOGY TO CREATE RICE SEEDS WITH CERTAIN PROTEINS.  WITH CONCERNS ABOUT THEFT OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY - SOUTH CAROLINA  SENATOR LINDSAY GRAHAM IS TOUTING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S "GET TOUGH"  STANCE ON CHINA. WHILE TOURING FACTORIES IN HIS HOME STATE, GRAHAM SAYS THE PRESIDENT IS CORRECT TO UNITE THE WORLD AGAINST CHINESE BUSINESS AND TRADE  PRACTICES. "THEY STEAL OUR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY. THEY MAKE STEEL IN SUCH LARGE QUANTITIES TO SELL IT  BELOW COST WHICH HAS PUT ASIDE THE STEEL BUSINESS OF STEEL MAKING IN AMERICA. 54  GEORGETOWN IS STILL COMING BACK BECAUSE OF THE STEEL TARIFFS. 2:56 TARIFFS ARE NOT THE BEST WAY  TO DO WITH THIS BUT IT'S THE ONLY THING ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW."> GRAHAM SAYS HIS GOAL IS TO RE-WRITE THE RULES OF  THE WORLD TRADING ORGANIZATION. HE FEELS THE U.S. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO TO AN INTERNATIONAL BODY AND HAVE A FAIR HEARING INSTEAD OF SLAPPING ON  TARIFFS. 

USMEF EXPORT NUMBERS
LOOKING AT PROTEIN EXPORTS - THE U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS THE  FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WAS STRONG FOR PORK SHIPMENTS....UNTIL TARIFFS  WERE IMPLEMENTED IN TWO OF THE KEY EXPORT MARKETS. ACCORDING TO US-M-E-F ANALYSIS - FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2018 PORK EXPORT VOLUME WAS TWO PERCENT AHEAD OF LAST YEAR'S RECORD PACE FOR THE  FIRST HALF OF 2018. VALUE WAS UP FIVE PERCENT FROM JANUARY TO JUNE. IN APRIL, THERE WERE RECORD PORK EXPORTS BUT THEN TARIFFS WERE  IMPLEMENTED. IN CHINA, TARIFFS ON PORK JUMPED FROM TWELVE TO 37 AND THEN TO 62- PERCENT. AS FAR AS BEEF - FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR - EXPORTS SET A RECORD PACE IN BOTH VOLUME AND VALUE. BEEF EXPORTS WERE UP NINE PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.  THE VALUE OF THAT  BEEF TOPPED FOUR BILLION DOLLARS, UP 21-PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. US-MEF SAYS THE BEEF EXPORT MARKET HAS NEVER TOPPED THE FOUR BILLION  DOLLAR MARK BEFORE AUGUST. USDA BELIEVES THE CATTLE EXPANSION PHASE IS FINALLY STARTING TO SLOW  DOWN. HOWEVER, THE DEPARTMENT BELIEVES NEAR-TERM PRODUCTION WILL  INCREASE IN 2019. THAT'S BECAUSE REPLACEMENT HEIFER NUMBERS ARE DECLINGING BUT THE  CALF CROP IS INCREASING. "THE LATEST CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT FOUND THE NUMBER OF REPLACEMENT HEIFERS HAVE DECLINED  FROM LAST YEAR WHILE THE 2018 CALF CROP HAS INCREASED ABOUT 2 PERCENT. THE CALF CROP NUMBER  TELLS A STORY OF CONTINUED LARGER BEEF PRODUCTION FOR 2019 WHILE THE LOWER NUMBER SUGGESTS  HERD GROWTH IS SLOWING.  38 COMBINE THE RETENTION RATE WITH COW AND SLAUGHTER DATA AND THAT COLLECTIVELY POINTS TO A  SLOWER HERD RATE."HENDERSON SAYS THE DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS A FACTOR TOO.  BEEF COWSLAUGHTER IS RUNNING ELEVEN PERCENT OVER LAST YEAR, THE  HIGHEST NUMBER SINCE 2013.  HEIFER SLAUGHTER YEAR TO DATE IS UP NEARLY 9 PERCENT, ALSO THE HIGHEST  IN FIVES YEARS.  

GLYPHOSATE CAN’T BE REGISTERED IN BRAZIL
A BRAZILIAN JUDGE IS STOPPING THE USE OF PRODUCTS CONTAINING  GLYPHOSATE IN THE COUNTRY.  THE JUDGE RULING THE PRODUCTS WITH THE CHEMICAL CANNOT BE  REGISTERED AND EXISTING REGISTRATION WILL BE SUSPENDED WITHIN THE  NEXT 30 DAYS. GLYPHOSATE IS WIDELY USED IN PRODUCTS LIKE ROUNDUP.  ACCORDING TO POLITICO - MONSANTO -  THE MAKER OF ROUNDUP SAYING IN A  STATEMENT BRAZILIAN FARMERS HAVE RELIED ON THE CHEMICAL FOR MORE  THAN 40 YEARS.  

WEATHER
MIKE HOFFMAN IS IN FOR CROP COMMENTS THIS MORNING. GOOD MORNING,  MIKE. GOOD MORNING, BETSY.  LET'S HEAD DOWN TO UNION COUNTY, TENNESSEE.  THE OWNERS OF CRABTREE FARMS SAYING THE CORN CROPS LOOK GREAT IN  THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE.  NOW ABOUT 24 PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP IS IN THE DENTING STAGE IN THE  STATE. 71 PERCENT IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACCORDING TO USDA.  AND MATT BRAUN OVER IN DENNISON, MINNESOTA SHOWING US ANOTHER PASS  ON THE FIELD DURING SOD HARVEST.  MATT SAYS HE'S MOVING A LOT OF SOD BECAUSE THERE'S A HOUSING BOOM,  WHICH HELPS BUSINESS. THE SOD IS CUTTING NICELY AS WELL.  AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WINDSPEED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT AS WE START TODAY MAINLY OKLAHOMA  BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY WE'LL SEE AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WIND. NO WIDESPREAD WIND NO AS YOU CAN SEE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAYBE A LITTLE WINDY AND THEN HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW TURNS A LITTLE  WINDY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY IN PLACES BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD APPEARING SO FAR. WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP IN A FEW MINUTES. FIRST THOUGH HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN  TEMPS. 

TEASE
UP NEXT IN ANALYSIS - WHAT CAN WE EXPECT THIS WEEK AS USDA UNVEILS ITS  BIG AUGUST GRAIN REPORTS? WE'LL DISCUSS NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS. AS THE UNITED KINGDOM PREPARES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, CAN  BRITISH FARMERS PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD POST-BREXIT? AND A GROWING CHINESE MIDDLE CLASS PUTS PRESSURE ON "FLEECE  FARMERS".   DEMAND FOR A 'PACK OF ALPACAS' -LATER ON AGDAY. YOUR NEXT PIECE OF EQUIPMENT IS ON MACHINERY PETE DOT COM. SEARCH EQUIPMENT FROM  DEALERSHIPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO FIND WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR. ONLY ON MACHINERY PETE DOT  COM.

FLOOR OF THE CME
LET'S SEE IF WE HAD A TURN AROUND TUESDAY. FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO THE CME  FLOOR IN CHICAGO.   WE'VE HAD SOME CHOPPY AND MIXED TRADES HERE TRADE HERE IN THE GRAINS WITH WHEAT AND CORN LEANING A LITTLE BIT LOWER WHILE SOYBEANS LEANING A BIT HIGHER. THE BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY  WAS YESTERDAY'S CROP CONDITIONS REPORT THEY CAME OUT AFTER THE CLOSE AND WE SAW A BIT OF AN  UNEXPECTED DECLINE OR CERTAINLY DECLINE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE SOYBEANS CORN DOWN JUST  SLIGHTLY AS WELL. AND THAT'S GIVEN US SOME STRENGTH IN SOYBEANS MOSTLY FUN SHORT COVERING I  BELIEVE. BUT THE WAY THE SOYBEANS HAVE FOUND SOME STRENGTH ON THAT A LITTLE BIT OF HAVINGNESS ACROSS THE BOARD IN LIVESTOCK TALKING ABOUT HOGS. WE STARTED THE DAY ON A LITTLE  BIT OF A FIRMER TONE AS THE DAY WORE ON WE GAVE BUT WE GAVE UP MUCH OF THE GAINS AND  ENDED UP TRADING LOWER ON THE DAY. BUT OVERALL I THINK THIS IS STILL MAYBE THE BEGINNINGS OF A  BOTTOMING FORMATION HOPEFULLY IN THE HAAG'S. I THINK AT SOME POINT HERE WE'RE GOING TO SEE HOGG'S AS A BIT OF A VALUE. I THINK WE'RE AT THESE PRICE LEVELS NOW. IT'S JUST A MATTER OF FEELING  SAFE TO COME IN AND BUY IN THE LONGER WE CAN TRADE SIDEWAYS I THINK THE MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL  START TO SEE THE BUYERS POP BACK UP IN MARKETS ONCE AGAIN FEEDER CATTLE RATHER HEAVY HERE  TODAY BREAKING THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORT BREAKING TREND LINE SUPPORT AND TRADING BELOW SOME VERY KEY SUPPORT LEVELS. THIS IS A CONCERN AND COULD SAY THAT WE MIGHT BE  ROLLING OVER TO THE DOWNSIDE IF THAT IS THE CASE THAT COULD EVENTUALLY TAKE THE LIVE CATTLE DOWN  WITH IT AS WELL. SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FROM THAT. IT COULD BE VERY INTERESTING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  IN THE COW CALF COMPLEX. AGAIN THIS IS TED SEIFRED OF ZANER AG HEDGE COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME FLOOR.

AGRIBUSINESS
ALL EYES IN THE GRAIN SECTOR WILL BE FOCUSED ON USDA FRIDAY WHEN THE  DEPARTMENT RELEASES ITS AUGUST 'WASDE" AND CROP PRODUCTION  ESTIMATES. TYNE MORGAN TAKES A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS. HERE NOW WITH MATT BENNETT OF BENNETT CONSULTING. MATT LOOKING AHEAD WE HAVE A USDA  REPORT THIS WEEK. YOU KNOW TYPICALLY WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING WHEN IT COMES TO THIS REPORT. BUT YOU COULD ALWAYS HAVE KIND OF A GAME CHANGING REPORT IN AUGUST. OBVIOUSLY FOLKS ARE  LOOKING FOR SPECIFIC AND YOU KNOW YOU'RE SEEING ANYTHING FROM LOW 70S ALL THE WAY UP TO 180.  SO THIS IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FOR SURE. NOW OBVIOUSLY THAT NUMBER'S NOT GOING TO BE THE GOSPEL. LAST YEAR WE SAW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOVEMENT AFTER WE CAME OUT WITH THE  AUGUST NUMBER. WHERE ARE WE GOING TO END UP AT. AND SO I GUESS MY GUT FEELING AT THIS  POINT IS THAT 175 AREA IS PROBABLY MY OVERUNDER IF YOU WILL. I CAME IN A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN THAT FROM MY OFFICIAL ESTIMATES FOR REUTERS AND BLOOMBERG BUT AFTER SEEING MORE OF THE CROP  THIS WEEK I GUESS I'VE JUST SCALED THAT BACK A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE I KNOW WHERE YOU SAT IN  ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS YOUR REALLY REALLY GOOD. AND THEN YOU'VE SEEN SOME OF THESE OTHER  AREAS IN THE CORN BELT THAT ARE STRUGGLING THIS YEAR AND HAS TO IMPACT IN IDAHO. ABSOLUTELY.  AND SO THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD A LOT OF FOLKS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COME TO THE TABLE THAT MAYBE DON'T TYPICALLY HAVE THE 200 PLUS PRODUCTION THAT HAVE HAD TO  22 30 TO 40 FARM AVERAGES. SOME OF THOSE AREAS ARE GOING TO BE LUCKY TO HAVE HALF THAT THIS  YEAR. AND YOU KNOW A LOT OF THE SAME AREAS AND I'M TALKING ABOUT. AND SO WHENEVER YOU  START TO EXTRACT THAT KIND OF PRODUCTION FOR INSTANCE MAYBE IN NORTHERN IOWA OR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THAT'S A BIG PRODUCTION AREA CAN'T TAKE TOO MANY  BUSHELS AWAY FROM THAT WITHOUT AFFECTING THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. BUT WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN I  MEAN REALLY WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN ORDER TO DRIVE THIS MARKET HIGH. WELL I THINK THERE'S A LOT  OF FACTORS THAT ARE GOING TO SUPPORT THE CORN MARKET FOR SURE IN MY OPINION. WORLD DEMAND YOU KNOW YOU'RE LOOKING AT TAKING WORLD STOCKS DOWN OVER A TWO YEAR WINDOW FROM 230  MILLION METRIC TONS AND MAYBE SOME 150. THAT'S AN IMPRESSIVE DRAWDOWN IN STOCKS AND SO  IN MY OPINION IF YOU HAVE ANYTHING IN HER HONOR NADY BUSHEL NATIONAL YIELD HERE IN THEU.S. I  THINK THAT THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK BOTHU.S. AND WORLD IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP  THIS MARKET WELL-SUPPORTED. ALL RIGHT MATT BENNETT BINIK CONSULTING THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING  US. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK HERE ON AG AND THEN WE'LL HAVE A CHECK OF YOUR WEATHER. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY TOP THIRD AG MARKETING.  FARMER-FIRST, WITH A PLAN FOR EVERY  MARKET. 

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE THIS AREA THIS SOUTHERN IOWA MISSOURI SOME PARTS OF ILLINOIS THEY JUST KEEP MISSING THOSE RAINS. WHAT IS THIS ROOT ZONE. MOISTURE THAT TELL YOU. WELL IT'S REALLY UP TO DATE. NUMBER ONE IT COMES FROM A NASA SATELLITE AND IT'S SHOWING THE BIG ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS THAT DRY AREA OVER THE MISSOURI AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT AREA HAS GOTTEN WORSE SINCE LAST WEEK WHEN WE SHOWED THE ROOTS ZONE MOISTURE MAP TO YOU SO MUCH OF THAT AREA JUST EXTREMELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE EARINGS SEE MOST OF THE REST OF THE CORN BELT ISN'T DOING TOO BAD. THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT ARE A LITTLE WET. SUMMER IS IT A LITTLE DRY TEXAS A LITTLE DRY. YOU FOLKS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO START TO GET A LITTLE MORE RAIN THOUGH IN THE PATTERN THAT WE'RE KIND OF HEADING INTO HERE. SO THAT IS PROBABLY SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THERE. HERE'S MY OUR MAP THIS MORNING. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT. COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FROM THERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THAT FRONT. YOU CAN SEE A SECONDARY FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. I WANT TO HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS BY LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS COLD FRONT HERE AND HIT MISS IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WE'LL SEE THINGS KIND OF DRY OUT AS THEY TYPICALLY DO ALTHOUGH ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LIKE THIS SOMETIMES YOU WILL GET NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD SO THERE'LL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO WEST TEXAS OUT OF THIS ONE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE BIT ALONG THAT SECONDARY FRONT AS WELL. SO PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS YOU CAN SEE THE MAJORITY OF IT HAS FALLEN. KIND OF SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKESST. LOUIS AREA SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE SO THOSE DRY SECTIONS DO OCCASIONALLY GET A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. BUT OUR MODEL ISN'T SHOWING TOO MUCH. COMING UP THE NEXT 36 HOURS A LOT OF THE RAIN IS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TAKING A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOTS OF 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS EVEN A FEW 90S SPRINKLED IN THERE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PLAINS OBVIOUSLY MOST OF TEXAS 90S TRIPLE DIGITS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT 60S TO NEAR 70. MOST OF THE CORN BELT UPPER 70S BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE GULF COAST AND IN MORE 80S AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW THAT COOL FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR BUT IT'S STILL KIND OF ON THE WARM SIDE. AS YOU CAN SEE THERE BUT THE TROUGH TRIES TO DIG IN HERE BUT THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT CUTOFF LOW FOR A LITTLE WHILE THERE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO A STRONGER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL EUGENE OREGON HAZY SUNSHINE VERY HOT HIGH OF 96 DEGREES. FORT SMITH ARKANSAS PARTLY SUNNY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PRETTY LIKELY HIGH OF 91 AND BUFFALO NEW YORK MOSTLY CLOUDY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND HIGH OF 80. 

TEASE
UP NEXT - A WARNING THIS MORNING ABOUT BRITAIN'S ABILITY TO PRODUCE  ENOUGH FOOD WHEN IT SPLITS FROM THE REST OF EUROPE. AND CAN THIS PACK OF ALPACAS HELP KEEP UP WITH DEMAND FOR ITS FINE  FLEECE? 

PACKER TV
AN IDAHO-BASED COMPANY WHICH DEVELOPED A POTATO THAT'S RESISTANT TO  BRUISING AND BLIGHT IS NOW STRETCHING ITS RESEARCH LEGS INTO 'CRISPR'  TECHNOLOGY. THE J-R SIMPLOT COMPANY HAS ACQUIRED GENE-EDITING LICENSING RIGHTS IN  A DEAL WITH DOW-DUPONT. THE GENE EDITING TECHNOLOGY -CALLED CRISPR - SPEEDS UP THE PROCESS  OF BREEDING GENERATIONS OF PLANTS TO GET A CERTAIN DESIRABLE TRAIT. IT WAS DEVELOPED BY RESEARCHERS AT M-I-T AND HARVARD. SIMPLOT BELIEVES THE TECHNOLOGY WILL ALLOW IT TO PRODUCE CROPS THAT  HAVE LONGER SHELF LIFE, LIKE STRAWBERRIES, AVOCAODES, AND OF COURSE,  POTATOES. IN NEWS FROM OUR PARTNERS AT THE PACKER - THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA  HAS GIVEN WASHINGTON APPLE SHIPPERS A SIX-WEEK DELAY ON THE  IMPLEMENTATION OF A 25% RETALIATORY TARIFF AGAINST U-S APPLES. THE TARIFF IS IN RESPONSE TO THE U-S TARIFF ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM  IMPORTS. THE APPLE TARIFF IS NOW RE-SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT IN MID- SEPEMBER. ACCORDING TO THE PACKER WASHINGTON APPLE EXPORTERS DON'T SHIP MUCH  VOLUME TO INDIA IN THE LATE SUMMER MONTHS, BUT SHIPMENTS WILL  INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. THE 25-PERCENT TARIFF WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE 50-PERCENT TARIFF  ALREADY IN PLACE. USDA SAYS INDIA IS THE SECOND LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U-S APPLES  BEHIND MEXICO. A FARMERS GROUP IS WARNING THAT THE UNITED KINGDOM COULD RUN OUT OF FOOD BY THIS TIME NEXT YEAR IF A TRADE DEAL IS NOT WORKED OUT WITH THE  EUROPEAN UNION. THE U-K - AS YOU MAY KNOW - IS SCHEDULED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IN MARCH. THE NATIONAL FARMERS UNION SAYS THE U-K IS UNABLE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD ON ITS OWN TO FEED THE NATION. THE GROUP CALLED FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO PRIORITIZE FOOD SECURITY IN  BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS. THE N-F-U SAYS BRITAIN PRODUCES PRODUCE JUST UNDER TWO-THIRDS OF ITS  OWN FOOD. MOST OF THE REST COMES FROM THE EU.  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK - KEEPING-UP WITH DEMAND FOR FLEECE. IN THE COUNTRY IS NEXT. 

IN THE COUNTRY
IN THE COUNTRY - SPONSORED BE THE ALL-NEW KUBOTA SIDEKICK. A UTILITY VEHICLE THAT LETS YOU  CLIMB MORE, COVER MORE, TOW MORE AND ENJOY MORE. VISIT KUBOTAUSA.COM. WITH A GROWING MIDDLE-CLASS IN CHINA, DEMAND FOR ALPACA FLEECE IS ON  THE RISE. ALPACA FARMERS IN AUSTRALIA ARE SENDING BIG SHIPMENTS TO THE ASIAN NATION. ALPACA FLEECE IS KNOWN FOR ITS SOFT TOUCH AND SUITABILITY TO CLOTHING. THOSE QUALITIES PIQUED <PEEKED> THE INTEREST OF CHINESE  MANUFACTURERS. WITH SUCH GROWING DEMAND, DOZENS OF ALPACA FARMERS FROM ACROSS AUSTRALIA HAVE NOW FORMED A CO-OP TO RAMP UP EXPORTS. AT LEAST 10 TONS OF RAW FLEECE ARE BEING SENT TO CHINA FOR PROCESSING  EACH MONTH. THOUGH THE INDUSTRY IS GROWING, THE CHALLENGE FOR AUSTRALIA NOW IS  TO GET MORE FARMERS INTO THE ALPACA INDUSTRY WITH MUCH BIGGER HERDS.   IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN IT'S FEARED CHINESE IMPORTERS MAY END UP  LOOKING ELSEWHERE. "IT'S ABOUT HOW WE SAY THE ALPACA INDUSTRY IS MOVING FROM AN EMERGING TO A DEVELOPING  INDUSTRY." "I DON'T THINK EVEN IF WE HAD 70 MILLION LIKE MERINO WE STILL WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO FULFIL THEIR NEEDS I DON'T THINK BUT WE'LL GIVE IT A STAB WITH WHAT WE'VE GOT."SOT VERBATIM> AS FAR AS ALPACAS IN THE UNITED STATES...THEY WERE FIRST IMPORTED FROM  SOUTH AMERICA IN THE MID 1980'S. ACCORDING TO THE ALPACA OWNERS ASSOCIATION THE CURRENT REGISTERED  U-S ALPACA HERD IS ABOUT 250-THOUSAND HEAD. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US AT AGDAY I'M BETSY JIBBEN . HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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