AgDay Daily Recap - August 9, 2018

August 9, 2018 10:02 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 9, 2018

HEADLINES

USDA PREPARES TO RELEASE IT'S UPDATED CROP YIELD AND PRODUCTION  NUMBERS... "I THINK THAT WE ARE ALREADY TRADING A FAIRLY LARGE CROP MAYBE IN THE 177 178" BUT IT'S WHAT'S REVEALED WITH THE CORN CROP WORLDWIDE THAT SOME  ANALYSTS ARE WATCHING.  AS DROUGHT GRIPS MISSOURI'S FARMLAND.. "THERE'ES BEEN SOME FIELDS APPRAISED UNDER 10 BUSHELS PER ACRE, OR  RIGHTG AT 10, SOME EVEN DOWN TO ZERO." IT'S DWINDLING HOPES OF A BETTER THAN EXPECTED CORN CORP THIS YEAR.  IN AGRIBUSINESS, GETTING A MARKETING GAMEPLAN TOGETHER FOR THE  REPORT. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CHEVY SILVERADO, THE MOST DEPENDABLE, LONGEST-LASTING FULL SIZE PICKUPS ON THE ROAD.

WASDE PREVIEW
GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY. I'M TYNE  MORGAN FILLIN GIN FOR  CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AND WE'RE BRINGING YOU THE  SHOW FROM TEH DEKALB/ASGROW GROWER SHOWCASE NEAR GOLDEN GATE,  ILLINOIS. AS GROWERS LOOK TO REAP AGRONOMIC INFORMATION FIRST-HAND,  WE'LL SHARE SOME INSIGHT INTO WHAT YOU SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT FOR  HARVEST PREP LATER ON THE SHOW.  BUT FIRST, LET'S GET TO OUR TOP STORY.  AS THE TRADE AND FAMRERS ANXIOUSLY AWAIT USDA'S LATEST LOOK AT CROP SIZE AND EXPECTATIONS WITHIN THE LATEST WASDE REPORT, IT'S THE FIRST  TIME USDA WILL RELEASE A REPORT WITHOUT A LOCKUP. THIS MEANS SOME  MEDIA WON'T GET THE NUMBERS IN ADVANCE.   AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE  SAYS THIS WILL ALLOW EVERYONE TO HAVE THE EQUAL ACCESS TO THE REPORTS WHEN RELEASED AT NOON EASTERN. . AND AS AGRICULTURE AWAITS USDA TO REVEAL ITS LATEST CROP PROJECTS,  PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES FROM THE TRADE ARE STARTING TO ROLL OUT. THE AVERAGE TRADE GUESS FOR CORN YIELD IS 176 POINT 3, WHICH IS JUST SHY  OF LAST YEAR'S RECORD CORN YIELD. THE AVERAGE ESTIMATE ON CORN PRODUCTION IS 14 POINT 4 BILLION BUSHELS.  ON SOYBEANS, THE TRADE THINKS USDA WILL PLACE YIELD JUST UNDER 50 BUSHELS PER ACRE, AT 49 POINT 8. CROP PRODUCTION IS PEGGED AT 4 POINT 42  BILLION BUSHELS.  AND MOVING TO WHEAT,  THE GUESS IS 1 POINT 85 BILLION BUSHELS FOR  PRODUCTION. DESPITE MUCH OF THE TALK  BEING ABOUT THE DOMESTIC CROPS, CHIP  NELLINGER OF BLUE REEF AGRIMARKETING SAYS IT'S THE WORLD NUMBERS HE'S KEEPING HIS EYE ON.   "I THINK THAT WE ARE ALREADY TRADING A FAIRLY LARGE CROP MAYBE IN THE 177 178 RANGE BUT IN THE  END RESULT THE BOTTOM LINE MAY BE SHOCKING TO SOME PEOPLE BECAUSE EVEN IF IT IS THAT BIG AND  I'M NOT CONVINCED IT IS YET A 178 CROP IT COMES DOWN TO THE WORLD NUMBERS AND IF THE WORLD  CONTINUES TO SHRINK PARTICULARLY THE EUROPEAN CROP THE BLACK SEA AREA UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. IF YOU CUT THAT CORN CROP MORE AND THE WHEAT CROP MORE THE ULTIMATE SIZE OF THE CROP COULD  STILL BE RECORD AND WE COULD RALLY IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF A SHOCKING REACTION." THE WORLD CORN NUMBER COULD BE AN EVOLVING STORY FOR THE CORN  MARKET, BUT MUCH OF THE TALK TODAY IS THE U-S CORN CROP. WITH RECORD CROP CONDITION NUMBERS, SOME IN THE INDUSTRY ARE TALKING  ABOUT A POSSIBLE RECORD CORN YIELD THIS YEAR. 

DRY MISSOURI
HOWEVER, IT'S STATES LIKE MISSOURI STRUGGLING MAKE A CROP THIS YEAR.  AND IT'S A STATE THAT SAW BOUNTIFUL BUSHELS LAST YEAR. THE BEAN PLANTS HAVE SET MOST OF THEIR PODS RIGHT NOW. FOR MISSOURI FARMER DANIEL CARPENTAR,  YOU PULL A POD OFF THE LOWER NODES ADN THEIR STARTING TO FILL OUT PRETTY WELL.REALLY GOING TO NEED SOME RAIN TO PUSH THOSE PODS, THAT BEAN SIZE A LITTLE LARGER. AND THE BIGGEST HURDLE IS RAIN.  IF YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF THESE EARS ON THE OUTSIDE, THEY ARE FILLED OUT QUITE WELL.BUT IF YOU TAKE A FEW STEPS INTO THE FIELD..  WE'VE GOT QUITE A BIT OF TIP BACK THOUGH, AND OBVIOUSLY A MUCH LOWER QUALITY SIZE OF EAR THE BUSHELS ARE LACKING.. IN A YEAR WHEN PRICES ARE ALSO POSING PAIN.  THAT HAPPENED LATE JUNE EARLY JULY WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL THAT WE HAD. THIS YEAR WE'VE JUST BEEN MISSING ALL TYPES OF SHOWERS. SOME FIELDS - LOOK BETTER THAN OTHERS- SEEING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF  RAIN ALL SEASON... CARPENTAR SAYS IT'S FIELDS LIKE THIS THAT ARE SHOWING MORE PROMISE  THAN MOST. TOP END, WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN FIELDS RIGHT AROUND HERE, WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING IS  120 TO 140, WILL PRETTY WELL DO IT.THAT'S 100 BUSHELS PER ACRE LESS THAN LAST YEAR, INDICATING THE "BETTER  THAN EXPECTED" YIELD STORY MAY NOT BE IN THE CARDS FOR MISSOURI FARMERS THIS YEAR.  I FEEL LIKE IF WE DON'T GET MUCH MROE RAIN TO FILL OUT KERNELS AND ADD WAITG TO THEM, WE'RE  LOOKING AT 50 PERCENT AT LEAST RIGHT NOW OF WHAT WE PRODUCED LAST YEAR AND IF WE DON'T GET  RAIN IN TEH NEXT COUPLE WEEKS, IT'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN THAT EVEN .FIELDS ALREADY BEING APPRAISED BY INSURANCE ADJUSTERS ARE SHOWING  JUST HOW DEEP THE SCARS OF THE 2018 DROUGHT MAY BE WITH SOME YIELDS  IN THE SIGNLE DIGITS.  THERE'ES BEEN SOME FIELDS APPRAISED UNDER 10 BUSHELS PER ACRE, OR RIGHTG AT 10, SOMEEVEN DOWN TO ZERO - CLOSE TO ZERO. THERE NOTHING, RAINFALL WAS THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THAT, AND  SOIL TYPE OBVIOUSLY TOO.> AS ANALYSTS FROM OUTSIDE MISSOURI TREK THROUGH FIELDS AND ASSESS THE  DAMAGE THIS YEAR, IT'S EATING AWAY AT THEIR YIELDS EXPECTATIONS.  WE SAW A LOT OF POLLINATION ISSUES, A LOT OF SMALL EARS, A COUPLE OF HTE FIELDS THAT I  LOOKED OUT WERE 40 TO 50 BUSHELS LESS THAN WHAT I WAS MAYBE EXPECTING TO SEE.THE HEADLINE FOR MISSOURI'S HARVEST THIS YEAR MAY BE THE VARIABILITY IN  FIELDS.. IT'S VARIABLE, ITS VERY VARIABLE DEPDNIGN ON WHERE YOUR'E AT THIS FALL WHEN WE GO IN THE COMBINE, WE'RE GOING TO HIT SOME PATCHES THAT WILL BE ABSOLUTELY  ZERO, AND THEN HIT SOME AREAS, THAT THE ROOTS WERE DOWN AND CAUGHT SOME OF THAT SUBSOIL. SO  THE YHIELD MONTIOR WILL BE ALL OVER THE BOARD THIS YEAR. AN AERIAL VIEW SHOWS THE MARKS OF THIS YEAR'S DROUGHT-- AND THE  VARIABIITY OF THE CROP--- WITH POCKETS OF THE FIELD TOAST FROM HIGH  HEAT AND LITTLE RAIN...  IF YOU GET A DRONE OR ANY SORT OF AERIAL VEHICLE, YOU CAN TGEL UP TO THE LINE WHAT SOIL TYPE IT  IS, WHETHER IT BE SAND OR GUMBO WHAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT AROUND HERE OR YORU FINE SILT LOAM, YOU CAN TELL RIGHT TO THE LINE WHERE ALL THAT'S ATIT'S IMPACTING NOT ONLY YIELD, BUT PLANT HEALTH.  THERE'S A LOT OF IT THAT'S GOOD, HEALHTY GREEN STILL AND A LOT OF IT AROUND THE AREA TOO THAT'S  REALLY STARTING TO DRY OUT AND BURN UP PRETTY QUICK.AS THE CORN DRIES UP, IT'S A STARK RESEMBLENCE TO THE DROUGHT OF 2012...  WE HAD SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN 2012, BUT WE HAD THE PRICE SUPPORT OT BACK THAT UP SO WE WERE  STILL ABLE TO MAKE SOMETHING OUT OF IT. THSI YEAR WITH THE PRICE SUPPORT WE HAVE BEING VERY  MINIMAL, LOW YIELD AND LOW PRICE DOESN'T EQUATE TO A WHOLE LOT.AND NOW SOME MISSOURI FARMERS SAY THE DROUGHT OF 2018 MAY TURN OUT  WORSE THAN 2012.  THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST OF 2012 WE GOT A 5 1/2 INCH OF RAIN, THAT DIDN'T SAVE AREAS OF HTE CORN CROP BUT REALLY SAVED QUITE A FEW BEAN ACRES.IT'S THAT RAIN ABSENT IN WEATHER FORECASTS-- A STORY THAT'S PLAYED OUT  ALL YEAR.  WITH THE GENETICS, THEYR'E A LITTLE BIT MORE DROUGHT TOLERANT, SO HOPEFULLY THEY'LL HOLD ON, BUT  ANY RAIN WILL HELP. WE'RE GETTING TO A CIRICITAL TIME WHERE THE BEAN PLANTS ARE NEEDING ABOUT 3/10 OF RAIN PER  DAY.WITH SOME CORN FIELDS LESS THAN 20 DAYS AWAY FROM HARVEST, THE REALITY IS SETTING IN...  JUST A TOUGHT SITUATION FOR PEOPLE THAT FARM JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE MARGINAL GROUND.REALITY THAT'S MIXED WITH THE HOPE OF LIVING TO FARM ANOTHER YEAR...  THE THING IS, THERE'S GOING TO BE A YIELD, SO WE'LL HARVEST IT AND MAKE SOME DECISIONS AND PLANS AND GO AGAIN LAST YEAR.OF THE TOP 18 CORN AND SOYBEAN GROWING STATES - MISSOURI SITS DEAD  LAST FOR BOTH CROPS. 44-PERCENT OF MISSOURI CORN AND 33-PERCENT OF  MISSOURI SOYBEANS ARE POOR TO VERY POOR.  LOOKING AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM - NEBRASKA AND NORTH  DAKOTA ARE TOPPING THE CHARTS WITH THIS YEAR'S CORN CROP. BOTH ARE  REGISTERING 85-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN COME IN SECOND WITH 81-PERCENT. TURNING TO SOYBEANS - NEBRASKA, AGAIN, LEADS THE WAY WITH 84-PERCENT  GOOD-TO-EXCELLENT. WISCONSIN IS SECOND WITH 80-PERCENT. 

CROP TOUR PREVIEW
OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER WILL BE DOING SOME 'GROUND-TRUTHING' OF  THE CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE 26TH ANNUAL PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR WILL COVER SEVEN  STATES THROUGH-OUT THE PRIMARY CORN-GROWING REGION OF THE COUNTRY  TO GAUGE MID-SUMMER CROP CONDITIONS. THE TOUR STEPS-OFF MONDAY AUGUST 20TH.  AND I'LL BE OUT THERE AS WELL BRINGING YOU COMMENTS AND REPORT ALONG THE WAY. 

DAIRY NEWS
NEW NUMBERS SHOW MORE DAIRY FARMERS ARE EXITING THE BUSINESS. AND A NEW DAIRY INSURANCE SERVICE IS OFFERING AN INSURANCE PLAN FOR  DAIRY PRODUCERS-- MUCH LIKE CROP INSURANCE  AMERICAN FARM BUREAU'S INSURANCE SERVICE IS OFFERING THE POLICY, AND IT'S BACKED BY USDA'S RISK MANAGEMENT AGENCY THE PROGRAM INSURES AGAINST UNEXPECTED DECLINES IN QUARTERLY MILK SALES. CALLED DAIRY REVENUE PROTECTION, IT INSURES FOR THE DIFFERENCE  BETWEEN THE FINAL REVENUE GUARANTEE AND ACTUAL MILK REVENUE IF PRICES FALL.  IT ALSO PROVIDES A GREATER CHOICE OF PRICES, INCLUDING THOSE THAT FOCUS ON CHEESE TO FRESH MILK, PROTEIN OR BUTTERFAT.  COVERAGE LEVELS RANGE FROM FROM 70 TO 95 PERCENT OF REVENUE...AND  IT'S AVAILABLE IN ALL 50 STATES. THOSE THAT SIGN UP CAN STILL PARTICIPATE IN USDA'S MARGIN PROTECTION  PLAN. BUT EVEN CONGRESSMAN COLLIN PETERSON, ONE OF THE AUTHORS OF MPP, ADMITS THIS NEW INSRANCE POLICY MAY BE A BETTER FIT FOR DAIRY  PRODUCERS. THE SOLUTION TO THIS LONGTERM IS THIS NEW FARM BUREAU REVENUE POLICY. I THINK THAT'S WHERE  WE'RE GOING TO LAND GOING FORWARD. NOW THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WHAT DOES IT COST- WE  DON'T KNOW, AND WE DON'T KNOW HOW IT'S GOING TO BE ACCEPTED BY FARMERS, BUT IF CORN, SOUYBEANS AND ANY OF THESE OTHER CROPS ARE ANY INDICATION, IT'S POPULAR WITH FARMERS AND IT'S  GOING TO HAVE THESE CROP INSURANCE AGENTS OUT THERE EXPLAINING IT AND SELLING IT TO PEOPLE.  INSTEAD OF HTE FSA WHICH ARE NOT SALESMAN, AND THAT'S BEEN PART OF HTE PROBLEMTO FIND AN AGENT OR INSURANCE PROVIDER GO TO WWW-DOT-RMA-DOT-USDA- DOT GOV FORWARD SLASH TOOLS FORWARD SLASH AGENT. OR VIST DAIRY-R-P DOT COM.  

CROP COMMENTS
IT'S TIME NOW FOR OUR MORNING CROP COMMENTS. FOR THAT, LET'S HEAD  BACK TO THE STUDIO TO CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN. GOOD MORNING, MIKE.  GOOD MORNING TYNE. WE TOOK OUR CROP COMMENTS FROMG AGWEB THIS MORNING. A FARMER  FROM HYDE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA SAYS THEY'VE RECEIVED MORE THAN 13  INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST MONTH. YEAR TO DATE, BETTER THAN FOUR  FEET OF RAIN. THE FARMER SAYS IT'S JUST TO MUCH RAIN ALL GROWING  SEASON. HE SAYS COTTON AND LATE PLANTED SOYBEANS ARE SUFFERING. ...AD LIB....AND NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME, OUR SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY FROM THE DEKALB AND  ASGROW GROWER SHOWCASE CONTINUES WITH MORE USDA REPORT  PREVIEWS. THIS TIME, STEVE GEORGY AND BRIAN SPLITT WEIGH IN ON WHAT TO EXPECT.  PLUS, A SPECIAL FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE SEGMENT ON EVALUATING AND SAVING YIELD IN THE FIELD.  AND FARMING CHALLENGES IN NORTHERN EUROPE - WHICH MAY IMPACT A VERY  POPULAR BRAND OF BEER. 

AGRIBUSINESS
WELL WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY. STEVE GEORGEY BRIAN SPLITT WITH ME  BOTH OF ALLENDALE HERE IN THE FIELD TALKING ABOUT THIS BIG USDA REPORT. THAT'S WHAT WE'VE BEEN  TALKING ABOUT IN THE SHOW. BUT REALLY WHEN WE LOOK AT IT HOW CLOSE USUALLY IS USDA WITH YIELD WHEN IT COMES TO THIS AUGUST REPORT. STEVE YOU KNOW THE AUGUST REPORT IS INTERESTING  BECAUSE IT IS STILL JUST A GUESS IT'S A STEPPING STONE. WE'RE NOT IN THE FIELDS DOING FIELD CHECKS  YET. IT'S STILL A LITTLE BIT EARLY. AND SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW ACCURATE ARE THEY REALLY 11 OUT OF  THE LAST 20 YEARS THEY'VE BEEN FOR BUSHEL OFF EITHER WAY. AND SO IT'S STILL IT'S VARIABLE AS WE'VE  TALKED ABOUT BEFORE BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT HOW ACCURATE THEY ARE IT IS JUST A STEPPING STONE. SO I THINK THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS NUMBER ON FRIDAY IT IS GOING TO BE JUST THAT. I THINK WE  NEED TO TAKE IT AT SURFACE LEVEL. AND YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE FREETRADE ESTIMATES I  MEAN WE'VE SEEN ESTIMATES DOWN AS LOW AS A LOW 170 IS UP ABOVE 180 WHEN IT COMES TO SOME OF THESE. SO THESE ESTIMATES ARE ALL ACROSS THE BOARD. BUT WHERE DOES ALLANDALE STAND  TODAY. ELLENDALE IS USING A 177 CURRENTLY AND THAT WOULD JUST BE POINT FOUR BUSHELS PER ACRE  ABOVE THE CURRENT RECORD OF ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY SIX POINT SIX BUSHELS PER ACRE. BUT I THINK  THE THING TO UNDERSTAND IS WE COULD STILL SEE A NEW RECORD YIELD AND HAVE THAT BE TO ME PRICE SUPPORTIVE BECAUSE WE STILL HAVE CARRY OUT LEVELS THAT ARE BELOW 2 MILLION BUSHELS. AND I  THINK THE MARKETS STILL DON'T WANT TO GO HIGHER. WE GET A NUMBER LIKE THAT. SO EVEN IF WE SEE  AN INCREASE IN THIS REPORT ON FRIDAY WHEN IT COMES TO THE CORN YIELD IT COULD STILL BE FRIENDLY  PRICE COULD STILL BE FRIENDLY I THINK THE BULK OF THE ESTIMATES ARE HANGING AROUND BETWEEN 175  TO 178 BUSHELS CRAKER. SO I THINK YOU NEED TO SEE A NUMBER THAT'S WELL ABOVE 178 TO 180 BUSHEL ACRE NUMBER AND TO GET THE MARKET THE FUEL WANTS TO GO BACK DOWN TO RETEST SOME OF  THE SUPPORT BELOW THE MARKET DEMAND HAS BEEN SO GOOD WITH CORN AND SO DO YOU EXPECT  ANY CHANGES ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE LEDGER COME FRIDAY. YOU KNOW I REALLY DON'T. WHEN YOU LOOK AT WEEKLY EXPORT SALES WEEKLY EXPORT SALES HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG YET. AND SO  THAT'S GOOD WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN SPECIFICALLY AND WE LOOK AT CARRY OUT NUMBERS. IT IS THE  DEMAND BUT IT'S GLOBAL DEMAND. AND SO IT'S WHAT KIND OF GLOBAL DEMAND ARE WE GOING TO SEE THAT WE'RE GOING TO REMAIN STRONG. WE FEEL THAT IT WILL ROLL QUICK LATIN ON SOYBEANS. YOU KNOW  WE'VE SEEN SOYBEANS HERE THEY LOOK GREAT BUT THEY NEED SOME MOISTURE TO FILL OUT AND IT'S  STILL SO EARLY IN THAT. SO DO YOU EXPECT USDA TO CHANGE SOYBEAN YIELD THIS EARLY IN THE GAME.  TYPICALLY THEY WILL. BUT INTERESTINGLY ONLY SIX OF THE PAST 20 YEARS THEY'VE INCREASED YIELDS ON  HIS REPORT FOR SOYBEAN. SO STATISTICALLY THIS WOULD ACTUALLY BE A FRIENDLY REPORT. SO WHEN YOU  LOOK AT THE TYPE OF YIELD CHANGE WE WOULD SEE TO THE AVERAGE OF TWO POINT FOUR PERCENT IF THEY  DO INCREASE THE YIELD THERE WOULD STILL BE BELOW 50 BUSHELS BREAKER. SO DO YOU EXPECT THIS TO  POSSIBLY BE A FRIENDLY REPORT FOR SOYBEANS AS WELL. YOU DON'T THINK IT CAN BUT I THINK THE MARKET ATTITUDE IS REALLY WHAT'S GOING TO CARRY THEM BECAUSE WE HAVE SUCH WE'VE GOT BIG  EARNINGS STOCKS CURRENTLY WE'RE LOOKING FOR ENDING STOCKS TO INCREASE BUT I THINK IT'S THE  MARKET ATTITUDE THAT WE NEED TO LOOK FOR. WHAT'S GOING ON WITH TARIFFS. WHAT'S GOING ON WITH  CHINA. WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THINGS LIKE THAT THAT HAVE BEEN PUSHING THIS MARKET AROUND. I THINK WE NEED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ON THAT. THIS REPORT AS I SAID BEFORE IS ONLY A STEPPING  STONE RIGHT. CONTINUE WATCHING HEADLINES. ALL RIGHT KEEP AN EYE ON ALL OF IT. THANK YOU SO  MUCH FOR JOINING US. WE NEEDED KATE TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL BE BACK WITH A CHECK OF WEATHER HERE ON THE SPECIAL REPORT OF AG DAY. 

WEATHER
AND WELCOME BACK AGDAY. I'M METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. BOY THIS FRONT IS GOING WELL INTO  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST COOLING THINGS DOWN BUT ALSO BRINGING SOME  MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE SEE THAT FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING INTO TEXAS. THERE WILL BE SOME COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVING SOME FOLKS A LOT OF RAIN OTHER PLACES NOT SO MUCH BUT AT  LEAST WE HAVE THAT DECENT CHANCE. NOW YOU CAN SEE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AREAS THROUGH  THE SOUTHEAST AND UP INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SECONDARY FRONT COMING ACROSS THE GREAT  LAKES WILL HAVE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS WELL. NOT A LOT GOING ON  ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MOST SYSTEMS YOU CAN KIND OF SEE OUT THERE OFFSHORE NOW HEADING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FRONT STILL SETTLING TOWARD THE GOLF COAST WITH SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FRONT HIT AND MISS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AS IS TYPICAL THIS  TIME OF THE YEAR AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. NOW THEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GOING TO BE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THAT WILL BE THAT SPOTTY AFTERNOON VARIETY STUFF THAT WILL SETTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS YOU CAN SEE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUT DOWN UP TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN MANY PLACES FROM OKLAHOMA ALL THE WAY INTO THE  NORTHEAST. ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL JUST SPREAD ALL OF THAT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ALL  DEPENDS ON WHERE THESE THUNDERSTORMS FORM WHETHER THEY HIT YOUR FARM OR NOT. TAKE A LOOK AT THE HEAT STILL KIND OF HOT BEHIND THAT. THOSE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BUT IT'S A DRIER HEAT ACROSS THE  NORTHERN PLAINS AND YOU'VE SEEN MUGGY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO DROP OFF INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CORN BELT AS YOU CAN  SEE BUT 70S INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE GOING TO BE WARM THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES IN THE MUGGY THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH EAST BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR  COMING SOUTHWARD I KNOW THAT'S STILL LOW 80S BUT THAT'S A FAR CRY FROM THE 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS.  SOME FOLKS HAVE BEEN SEEING. HERE'S THE JET STREAM AND YOU CAN SEE THE THE OVERALL TROUGH  KENNEDY DIGS INTO THE NORTH EAST AND THERE IS THAT CUT OFF RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST AS WE  HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A RIDGE OUT WEST DON'T KEEP A LOT OF FOLKS ON THE  HOT SIDE OUT THAT WAY. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR ROSWELL NEW MEXICO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE NOT AS HOT HIGH  OF 92 ORANGEVILLE MINNESOTA LOTS OF SUNSHINE RATHER WARM HIGH OF 84 IN KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE  VARIABLY CLOUDY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AROUND HIGHWAY 85.

TEASE
STILL TO COME ON THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY, HARVEST IS RIGHT AROUDN  THE CORNER FOR MANY. WE'LL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW TO  GET PREPPED FOR SHOW TIME.  PLUS AN EARLY START TO THE BARLEY HARVEST - AND THAT'S NOT GOOD NEWS  IN EUROPE. 

WEATHER
WELL WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY FROM THE DEKALB AN ASGRO TECHNOLOGY  SHOWCASE HERE RIGHT OUTSIDE OF GOLDEN GATE ILLINOIS. WE'VE SEEN CROP CONDITIONS ON THE WAY  DOWN BUT WHEN WE GOT HERE YOU KNOW JUST START WITH YOU. I NOTICED HOW DRY IT HAD BEEN IN SOME AREAS AND SO IS THAT DRYNESS SOMETHING THAT'S PLAGUED THIS AREA THIS YEAR. IT'S KIND OF  BEEN VARIABLE. SO WE STARTED OFF IN REALLY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR PLANTING. GOT SOME RAIN LAY GOT  RAIN A LITTLE BIT LATER AND TURNED OFF BACK DRY IN HERE. NOW GOING INTO A RAINFALL PERIOD WE'RE  KIND OF SEPARATED. WE WILL TAKE EVERY GOOD RAIN WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF YEAR TO REALLY DRIVE  THE YIELDS TO REALLY DRIVE THE PERFORMANCE. BUT AS YOU HEAD INTO OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SPECIFICALLY THERE HAVE BEEN REALLY BLESSED WITH SOME TIMELY RAIN. MORE THAN TWO OR  THREE TENTS AT A TIME. AND SO YEAH IT'S HIGHLY VARIABLE TO SAY THE LEAST. WELL JESSICA OF THAT  CORN MAY HAVE MISSED IT BUT JARED IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE SOYBEANS REALLY NEED IT RIGHT NOW. IT  LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE SOME PODS THAT NEED TO FILL OUT. IT SEEMS LIKE RAIN IS THE RECIPE RIGHT NOW  TO HELP THOSE BEANS FINISH STRONG. ABSOLUTELY TIME. SO RIGHT NOW ONE OF THE SOYBEANS ARE ENDING THE AR5 GROWTH STAGE WHICH IS WHERE THE SOYBEAN IS ACTUALLY FILLING WITHIN THE POD  AND THAT'S A CRITICAL STAGE TOO TO HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE BECAUSE THOSE BEES CAN EASILY  ABORT AND WE'LL LOSE A LOT OF YIELD IN A HURRY. IF WE'RE UNDER DROUGHT STRESS SO THE FIELD RIGHT  HERE BEHIND US OF SOYBEANS IS IS AT THIS STAGE AND WE COULD SEE YOU KNOW EASILY IN THE NEXT  WEEK WE COULD LOSE 5000 BUSHELS IF WE DON'T GET RAIN. WOW. JESSICA YOU KNOW LOOKING AT THE YIELD THAT WE DO HAVE BEER ON BOTH CORN AND BEANS WHAT CAN PRODUCERS BE DOING NOW TO  SAVE THE YIELD THAT IS THERE. RIGHT. SO YOU KNOW WE'RE DEFINITELY PAST YOU KNOW THE PROTECTION  PART OF A FUNGICIDE APPLICATION. OF COURSE THE MOST CONSISTENT RESULTS OUT OF HERE ARE ONE APPLICATION STAGE WITH CORN PUSH THAT YOU KNOW ARE TWO ARE THREE STATES WITH SOYBEAN. SO  REALLY PAYING ATTENTION TO INSECT PRESSURE DISEASES OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT TO KEEP THAT PLANT  HEALTH UP BUT REALLY JUST NEED A LOT OF FAITH IN PRAYING FOR RAIN. THAT'S REALLY WHAT MIGHT SAVE  US ON THIS ABORTION PORTION RIGHT NOW. AND I'VE SEEN SOME EARS ALREADY STARTING TO DROP IN THE  FIELD JARED SO HEADING INTO HARVEST YOU KNOW WHAT ARE SOME SOME ADVICE YOU HAVE FOR HARVEST PREP. ABSOLUTELY. I ENCOURAGE GROWERS TO GET OUT AND SCALP THEIR FIELDS BECAUSE  WE'VE HAD A LOT OF HEAT ACCUMULATION THIS SUMMER. THE CROPS REALLY ADVANCED MORE RAPIDLY  THAN THEY MIGHT EXPECT. AND SO IN SOME AREAS YOU MIGHT HAVE VERY GREEN CORN THAT IS NEARING HARVEST MOISTURE AND MAY BE QUICKER. THE BIG THING IS IF YOU'VE GOT STRESSED THOSE  EARS OR TURN IT DOWN GET DOWN. CHECK THE STOCK STREAM BECAUSE THAT PLAN IS GOING TO START  PULLING FROM THAT STOCK TO TRY TO FINISH OFF AND THE STOCKS CAN MOVE. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR  BEING HERE WE APPRECIATE IT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL HAVE MORE OF THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY .  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK - HOW DROUGHT MAY IMPACT A POPULAR EUROPEAN  BEER.....WHEN THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF AGDAY CONTINUES. 

IN THE COUNTRY
THE LONG-LASTING DROUGHT IN NORTHERN EUROPE WILL SOON HIT BEER  DRINKERS. BARLEY CROPS HAVE FRIED UNDER THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER, RAISING  POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR BREWERS. YIELDS IN KEY PRODUCERS IN SCANDINAVIA, NORTHERN GERMANY AND THE  BALTIC COUNTRIES COULD BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY RELEASED SOME SATELLITE IMAGES OVER  DENMARK AND SWEDEN THAT ILLUSTRATE THE HEATWAVE. THE IMAGES COMPARE MID-JUNE TO NOW. AND YOU CAN SEE THE DRAMATIC  CHANGES. EUROPEAN GRAIN TRADERS SAY BARLEY PRICES ARE ALREADY SURGING AND  COSTS WILL NEED TO BE PASSED DOWN THE SUPPLY CHAIN. SOME GERMAN  BREWERS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE BEER PRICES. FOR FARMERS WHO ARE ABLE TO MAKE A CROP, HARVEST IS THREE-TO-FOUR  WEEKS EARLIER THAN USUAL. THE HOT WEATHER IS ALSO LOWERING THE QUALITY OF BARLEY, MEANING  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SURPLUS OF GRAIN THAT'S ONLY USABLE FOR  LIVESTOCK FEED. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US AT AGDAY I'M TYNE MORGAN. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY.

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