AgDay Daily Recap - July 2, 2018

July 2, 2018 12:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 2, 2018

HEADLINES

SOYBEANS GAIN THE UPPER HAND. WHAT'S THE WEEK AHEAD LOOK LIKE FOR GRAIN MARKETS? TRADE RHETORIC HEATS-UP NORTH OF THE BORDER. "WE WILL NOT ESCALATE AND WE WILL NOT BACK DOWN." MACHINERY PETE CHOPS THROUGH COMBINE SALES. AND GRAPE GROWERS GRAPPLE WITH WEATHER. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CHEVY SILVERADO, THE MOST DEPENDABLE, LONGEST-LASTING FULL  SIZE PICKUPS ON THE ROAD. 

USDA REPORT
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WHILE TRADE TENSION HAS WEIGHED  HEAVILY ON GRAIN PRICES - SOYBEANS IN PARTICULAR - THE GOVERNMENT SAYS  SOYBEAN PLANTINGS STILL OUTPACING CORN THIS YEAR. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 35 YEARS THE NUMBER OF SOYBEAN ACRES HAVE  SURPASSED CORN PLANTINGS. 89-POINT-SIX TO 89-POINT-ONE ACCORDING TO USDA. BOTH OF THOSE NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS USDA ESTIMATES. "WE ALSO KNOW THE MARKET HAS BEEN WATCHING THE SOME VERY GOOD WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.  AND OVERALL THE CROP CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE GOOD AT THIS POINT. NOW I'M GOING TO BUILD IN SOME  ANTICIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OF A LITTLE BIT MORE HARMFUL WEATHER AND USDA IS USING  A WHOLE NUMBER OF 174 BUSHELS AT THIS POINT. I'M GOING TO UP THAT TO ABOUT 177 BUSHELS. A LOT  OF MODELS THAT HAVE BEEN RUN HAVE BEEN SHOWING EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT BUT I THINK WE HAVE  TO BE A LITTLE CAUTIOUS AS WE LOOK AT SOME AT LEAST QUITE A BIT OF HEAT GOING INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS." USDA EXPECTING SPRING WHEAT ACRES ARE UP 20-PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO  - COMING IN AT 13-POINT-TWO MILLION ACRES. ALL WHEAT PLANTED AREA COMES IN AT 47-POINT-EIGHT MILLION ACRES, UP 4  PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR'S RECORD LOW. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND LOWEST ALL WHEAT PLANTED AREA SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1919. IN OTHER  WORDS - AT THE END OF WORLD WAR ONE AND WOODROW WILSON WAS  PRESIDENT. COTTON PLANTINGS ARE UP SEVEN PERCENT FROM A YEAR, COMING IN AT 13-AND-A-HALF MILLION ACRES. THIS USDA MAP SHOWS A WAVE OF BLUE REFLECTING THE STATES WITH HIGHER COTTON PLANTINGS THIS YEAR. THE BIGGEST COTTON PRODUCER - TEXAS - IS UP ABOUT A HALF MILLION ACRES. FARM JOURNAL ECONOMIST AND AGRITALK HOST CHIP FLORY COMPARES THE  MATCH-UP TO THE MARCH INTENTIONS REPORT. "WHEN WE GOT THE THE PERSPECTIVE PLANNINGS REPORT EVERYBODY'S ATTITUDE WAS WE'RE MISSING  ANYWHERE FROM A MILLION AND A HALF MAYBE AS MUCH AS TWO AND A HALF MILLION ACRES FROM THE  TOTAL CROP. WELL WE FOUND THEM WE GOT THEM BACK CORN ACRES COMPARED TO THE MARCH INTENTIONS UP ONE POINT ONE MILLION SOYBEAN PLANTINGS COMPARED TO MARCH INTENTIONS UP FIVE  HUNDRED SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND ACRES COTTON ACRES UP ABOUT 50000 ACRES AND SPRING WHEAT  UP ABOUT 600000 ACRES FROM THE MARCH INTENTIONS. WE GOT ALL THOSE ACRES THAT WE THOUGHT  WE WERE MISSING BACK THE WAY THAT THE MARKET IS RESPONDING TO IT. I THINK ALL OF THIS HAS ALREADY FACTORED INTO THE MARKET. NOW WE NEED TO LOOK AT WEATHER WEATHER AND PROBABLY  SOME MORE WEATHER GOING FORWARD WITH ALL THE HEAT COMING IN THAT COULD BE STARTING TO  INFLUENCE THE PRICE ACTION IN CORN."USDA ALSO RELEASED ITS QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT.  SOYBEANS IN STORAGE TOTALING ONE-POINT-TWO BILLION BUSHELS - WHICH IS 26-PERCENT  ABOVE LAST YEARS LEVELS. CORN IN STORAGE REGISTERS AT FIVE-POINT THREE BILLION BUSHELS, UP  SLIGHTLY FROM A YEAR AGO. AGAIN, CHIP FLORY. "CORN STOCKS IN ALL POSITIONS ON JUNE 1 CAME IN 38 MILLION BUSHELS ABOVE THE AVERAGE PRE  REPORT TRADE GUESS BEAN STOCKS THREE MILLION BUSHELS BELOW THE AVERAGE TRADE GETS GUESS  I'M WHEAT STOCKS ABOUT 10 MILLION BUSHELS ABOVE THE AVERAGE PRE REPORT TRADE. YES THAT'S ONE OF THE MOST UNEVENTFUL. JUNE 1 QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORTS THAT I'VE SEEN FOR QUITE  SOME TIME. I DON'T THINK IT'S REALLY HAVING THAT MUCH IMPACT ON PRICE ACTION."

CANADA’S CANOLOA ACRES DOWN
CANADIAN FARMERS ARE PLANTING MORE CANOLA THAN PREVIOUSLY  ESTIMATED THIS YEAR. STATISTICS CANADA - THEIR VERSION OF NASS - SHOWS FEWER CANOLA ACRES  THAN LAST YEAR BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DROP THAN FORECASTED IN  MARCH. THEY'RE PLANTING ABOUT 23 MILLION ACRES OF CANOLA, DOWN ONE PERCENT. ALL WHEAT ACRES ARE UP ABOUT TEN PERCENT TO NEARLY 25-MILLION ACRES. BUT SOYBEANS TOOK A BIG HIT - DOWN 13-PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. THEY'RE PLANTING JUST OVER SIX MILLION ACRES. 

CANADA’S RESPONSE TO U.S. TARIFFS
ALSO NORTH OF THE BORDER - AS THE WEEK CAME TO A CLOSE FRIDAY THE  CANADIAN GOVERNMENT RELEASED A LIST OF U-S GOODS THAT IT IS TARGETING  FOR TARIFFS, TOTALLING MORE THAN 12-BILLION DOLLARS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO U-S TARIFFS ON CANADIAN STEEL AND ALUMINUM. SOME U-S ITEMS ARE TAXED 25-PERCENT. OTHERS FACE TEN-PERCENT LEVIES. CANADIAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS THEY HAD NO OTHER CHOICE AND WILL  NOT ESCALATE THE DISPUTE, BUT ALSO WILL NOT BACK DOWN.  "I CANNOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THE REGRET WITH WHICH WE TAKE THESE COUNTER MEASURES. WE  ARE ACTING VERY MUCH IN SORROW, NOT IN ANGER. BUT THE U.S. TARIFFS LEAVE CANADA NO CHOICE BUT TO DEFEND OUR INDUSTRIES OUR WORKERS AND OUR COMMUNITIES. AND I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT WE WILL  MAINTAIN THE FIRM RESOLVE TO DO SO. THE SOLUTION TO THIS UNPRECEDENTED DISPUTE IS FOR THE  UNITED STATES TO RESCIND ITS TARIFFS ON CANADIAN STEEL AND ALUMINUM WHICH DO NOT POSE ANY  KIND OF SECURITY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES."FREELAND SAYS THE U-S TARIFFS ARE ILLEGAL UNDER WTO AND NAFTA RULES. 

HOGS AND PIGS REPORT
FROM OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT FARM JOURNAL'S PORK - THE HOG  INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO GROW, BUT THE JUNE 2018 HOGS AND PIGS REPORT  FROM USDA SHOWS AN EVEN HIGHER INVENTORY THAN ECONOMISTS PREDICTED. THE JUNE DATA SHOWS A RECORD HIGH REPORT FOR THE NATION'S SOW AND  PIG HERD.  OF THE 73-AND-A HALF MILLION HOGS AND PIGS, 67 MILLION WERE MARKET  HOGS, WHILE 6 MILLION WERE KEPT FOR BREEDING. AND IT'S THAT BREEDING  HERD SIZE THAT SURPRISED ANALYSTS.  IT'S UP THREE-AND-A-HALF PERCENT  FROM A YEAR AGO. IOWA REMAINS THE LARGEST HOG PRODUCER - WITH NEARLY 23 (22.7) MILLION HEAD. "WE ARE LOOKING AT 26.7 BILLION POUNDS OF PRODUCTION COMING ONLINE THIS YEAR. OF COURSE, WE  HAVE NEW PLANTS OPENING AND RAMPING UP TO FULL PRODUCTION SO HOPEFULLY THOSE ARE ABLE TO DO  SO ON TIME. 35 WE CERTAINLY HAVE A LOT OF HOGS COMING OUR WAY THIS FALL."

FARM BILL
A NEW FARM BILL MAY BE HEADED FOR IT'S TOUGHEST NEGOTIATION YET. LAST THURSDAY THE SENATE PASSING IT'S VERSION OF THE BILL 86 TO 11. THE LEGISLATION NOW MUST BE RECONCILED WITH THE HOUSE VERSION AND BOTH CHAMBERS MUST ADOPT THE FINAL LANGUAGE BEFORE HEADING TO THE  PRESIDENT. THE STICKING POINT IS LIKELY TO BE NEW WORK REQUIREMENTS FOR SOME ON  THE SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM. HOUSE REPUBLICANS SAY IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PASS A FINAL BILL THROUGH  THE HOUSE WITHOUT SNAP REFORMS.  OVERALL, THE SENATE BILL OFFERS FEW CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT BILL  THAT EXPIRES LATER THIS YEAR.  THE BILL INCLUDES AN AMENDMENT TO ALLOW PARTIAL HAYING AND GRAZING ON  CRP ACRES AND A PROPOSAL TO REFORM THE DEFINITION OF QUOTE "ACTIVELY  ENGAGED" IN A FARMING OPERATION IN ORDER TO RECEIVE FARM PAYMENTS.  

CROP COMMENTS
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HEAT THIS WEEK, BUT RAIN HAS BEEN AN ISSUE IN PARTS  OF THE MIDWEST.  MIKE HOFFMAN HAS MORE IN TODAY'S CROP COMMENTS. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. ITS BEEN A WET START TO THE SUMMER FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. JODI DEJONG-HUGHES SHARED THIS AERIAL PHOTO WITH US FROM NEAR  MONTEVIDEO MINNESOTA. SHE SAYS ITS EASY TO SEE WHICH FIELDS HAVE TILE. THEY'VE SEEN BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF  WEEKS. IN SOME PLACES, ALFALFA SHOULD HAVE BEEN CUT 4 WEEKS AGO. IT'S STILL SITTING IN THE FIELD. NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR YOU CAN SEE. OBVIOUSLY NO. NO WORRIES ABOUT  DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BUT NORTHERN MISSOURI ON DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS  AND OKLAHOMA AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST. DEFINITELY SOME TROUBLES WITH DROUGHT. WE'LL LET  YOU KNOW WHO GETS THE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. LOOK AT YOUR 90 DAY FORECAST COMING UP IN JUST A FEW MINUTES. FIRST HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN. TEMPS.  

TEASE
FINAL ACREAGE NUMBERS ARE IN.  WE'LL TALK ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS COMING UP FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. AND LATER MACHINERY PETE. FOLKS STAY TUNED. COMING UP WE'LL HAVE A CHAT ABOUT USED COMBINE VALUES. AND VINYARDS ARE MOVING GRAPES NORTH FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.  WE'LL TAKE A LOOK COMING UP. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS MARKETS WITH A MIXED REACTION TO THAT ACREAGE  REPORT--INCLUDING A BOOST FOR WHEAT. LETS FIND OUT MORE FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. "WHEAT WAS THE BIG RALLY OF THE DAY, UP OVER 20 CENTS, UP 23 AND A HALF CENTS ALMOST  AND SOME MAY HAVE TO DO WITH FRANCE CUTTING THEIR CROP YIELD. THAT REALLY GOT THE MARKET TO ROLL AND WHAT HAPPENED WAS A LOT OF THE SHORT COVERING BEGAN AND STARTED TO RUN RIGHT INTO  THE REPORT,"A LOT OF ACTIVITY. A BIG REPORT DAY YESTERDAY WAS THE WAS A HOG AND PIG REPORT. TODAY CAROL  HALF ALMOST TWO PERCENT. REALLY AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE DAY AND REALLY PUSHING THE  MARKET HIGHER FEEDERS WERE ALSO SURGING THE TWO FRONT MONTHS WERE UP. TODAY WAS THE ACTUALLY THE LAST DAY OF THE JUNE CONTRACT. ALL THE OTHER MONTHS REALLY STARTED TO RALLY AND  LIMMEN UP WE HAVEN'T SEEN THIS IN QUITE A WHILE ESPECIALLY WITH CORN RALLYING AS HIGH AS IT IS.  IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MARKET WAS JUST SO LOW FOR A LONG TIME. WE WERE REALLY DUE FOR A  REBOUND HERE AS WE'RE GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND OR FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WHICH LANDS ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT'S GOING TO BE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AND NORMALLY WE  WOULD THINK IT'S NOT GOING TO GIVE US ENOUGH POP BUT IT'S REALLY GIVEN US A LITTLE BIT OF A SURGE.  TODAY WAS THE BIG RALLY FOR THE DAY UP OVER 20 CENTS UP 23 AND A HALF CENTS ALMOST. AND IT'S  REALLY STARTED WITH THE FRANCE CUTTING THEIR CROP YIELDS. THAT REALLY GOT THE MARKET STARTED TO  ROLL. AND I THINK WHAT HAPPENED WAS A LOT OF THE SHORT COVERING BEGAN AND STARTED TO RUN RIGHT  INTO THE REPORT. THAT'S ALL FROM THE FLOOR AT THE CME GROUP HERE IN CHICAGO AND VIRGINIA.

AGRIBUSINESS
HERE AT AGRIBUSINESS KIND OF MONDAY MORNING WE HAVE DOUG WHIRLING BOWER TRADING BOB  UTTERBACK UTTERBACK MARKETING. GENTLEMEN WHAT DID WE LEARN LAST WEEK WE THE BIG ACREAGE  REPORT. ARE THERE ANY TAKEAWAYS FROM WHAT MARKET DID FOLLOWING THAT REPORT. WELL FIRST OFF FOR  YOU GET INTO ONE OF THE BIGGEST THINGS YOU LEARN HERE IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS IS THE FUNCTION OF  THE MARKET IS TO DISCIPLINE GOVERNMENT. WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS THIS MARKET HAS BEEN VERY VIOLENT TO THE DOWNSIDE. THE U.S. FARMER HAS LOST LOTS OF MONEY. AND WHAT DOES THAT DO IT  SAYS GO TO YOUR GOVERNMENT. HEY WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE IF THESE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE  OTHER SIDE OF THAT INSIDE CHINA YOU'RE SEEING SOYBEAN PRICES GO UP YOU'RE YOU SEAMEO PRICES GO UP BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO SOURCE BEANS IN A DIFFERENT INDIVIDUAL AT A HIGHER PRICE.  SO YOU KNOW THEY'RE GOING TO BE GOING TO THEIR GOVERNMENT. HEY WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE.  THAT IS THE GENERAL FUNCTION OF THE MARKET. THE CROP REPORT THAT CAME OUT AT THE END OF LAST  WEEK PRETTY MUCH KIND OF DIALED IN. THERE WERE SOME THINGS THERE WERE SOME OUTLIERS BUT WE  TALKED ABOUT IT FOR SO LONG IT DIDN'T HAVE A BIG EFFECT AS IT NORMALLY HAD BECAUSE WE'VE HAD NO  RALLY WE'VE BEAT THESE MARKETS. SO THAT WHEN YOU THINK WHAT WE GOT ONE LAST WEEK IS THE BENEFIT OF PROPER PREPARATION IN GETTING REFERENCE TO MARKETING PLAN BECAUSE WHEN WE  LOOKED AT PROFIT THE MARKET OFFERS SOME REALLY GOOD TUNES THAT BETWEEN FOUR DOLLARS AND 425  THERE WERE GOOD PROFITS AND NOW WE HAD A LOT OF SHORTS TAKING PROFIT. WE HAD ABOUT PROFITS IN  THAT POSITION. SO THE SELLER THE BEAR MYSELF WE MADE A LOT OF MONEY. WE ENJOYED THE LAST FOUR  WEEKS BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH SO. SO NOW WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE WANT TO BOUNCE. SO WE HAD TO BASICALLY PROTECT OUR PROFITS. SO MANAGEMENT OF YOUR POSITION  WAS VERY CRITICAL AND MANAGEMENT YOUR EMOTIONS RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE NEXT 30 45 DAYS AN  EXTREMELY EMOTIONAL HOPE PHASE. WE'RE HOPING THE WEATHER GETS BAD SOMEPLACE ELSE SO THE PRICE RALLY WE'RE HOPING THAT EXPORTS DOESN'T GET ANY WORSE SO WE DON'T HAVE A LONG TERM  PROBLEM. AND IN THAT FEAR IS BECOMING I THINK PREVALENT PLUS THE JUST THE WHOLE POLITICAL  ENVIRONMENT IS UNCERTAIN GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON  WHAT CAN GET GUN OUT OF CONGRESS LATER ON. SO HAVING A GAME PLAN AND BEING SATISFIED WITH A PROFIT WHEN IT'S OFFERED WAS ACTUALLY VERY ILLUSTRATED OVER THE LAST FIVE WEEKS. ALL RIGHT A LOT  OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE. HOPEFULLY WE'LL GET SOME ANSWERS IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS  APPRECIATE YOU BOTH BEING HERE. WELL NEXT MORE ACTUALLY JUST A MINUTE. 

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH MINERALOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN AND LOOK AT THE RAINFALL OVER  THE LAST WEEK AND MIKE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS MAP PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS A GOOD  RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK REALLY WAS FROM FLORIDA INTO THE TENNESSEE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO  MANY PARTS OF THE PLAINS AS YOU CAN SEE NOW ZOOMING IN ON THIS. YOU CAN SEE THE SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY EASTERN TENNESSEE HAD A BUNCH OF RAIN. YOU SEE SOME AREAS FROM NORTH OF  ATLANTA THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO A FEW SPOTS IN KENTUCKY BACK TOWARD PADUCAH  ENDED UP WITH FIVE SIX INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEK FROM PREVIOUS SATURDAY TO THIS PAST FRIDAY. SO LOTS OF RAIN THERE YOU CAN SEE BACK TO THE WEST ANOTHER AREA ACROSS OKLAHOMA  INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THAT'S WHY THAT DROUGHT MONITOR IS SPLOTCHY. THERE ARE  PLACES THAT HAVE HAD A WHOLE BUNCH OF RAIN BUT OTHER PLACES JUST DOWN THE ROAD NOT SO MUCH. SO YOU CAN SEE THAT AREA THERE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN YOU  CAN ALSO KIND OF SEE THE NORTHERN PART OF MISSOURI NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT REALLY REALLY NEED  THE RAIN. NOT A WHOLE LOT. A LOT OF AREAS THAT DIDN'T GET TOO MUCH. ALL RIGHT LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT  THINGS THIS WEEK. HERE'S THE JET STREAM. THE RIDGE HAS NOW BEEN SHOVED OFF INTO THE NORTH EAST. THE HEAT IS STILL ON BUT IT'S BEING CUT BACK TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS  BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN WE START TO SEE IT ALL SHIFTING WEST AS WE HEAD TOWARD FRIDAY THE MAIN PART OF THE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THE  TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND THAT'S GOING TO BRING  SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT TO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE RIDGE GOES TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT MIGHT BE THE  PATTERN THAT WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF SUMMER WITH. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE THIS KIND OF  A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD HERE. SO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK STILL THE RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE EAST FOR  MOST OF THE WEEK SO WE'LL GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREAS FROM TENNESSEE NORTHWARD ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALL THE WAY BACK TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  CALIFORNIA BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BECAUSE OF SOME RAIN AND ALSO FAR NORTHERN  MONTANA NEAR NORMAL IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHERN PLAINS ABOVE NORMAL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST AND THE WEST HERE'S THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK JULY MOST OF THE COUNTRY  EXCEPT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEST  AND THE SOUTHEAST IN AUGUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A LITTLE BIT OF THAT  ON INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST. AS YOU CAN SEE TAKE A LOOK AT THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TENNESSEE VALLEY  AND ALSO IN THE WEST BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE  COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL MILES CITY MONTANA SUNNY  AND COMFORTABLY WARM HIGH OF 79 DEGREES LUFKIN TEXAS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOT AND HUMID WITH A HIGH OF 98 IN SALISBURY MARYLAND HAZY SUNSHINE HOT AND HUMID WITH A HIGH UP AROUND 95  DEGREES.

TEASE
MACHINERY PETE IS HERE NEXT WITH A LOOK AT THE USED EQUIPMENT MARKET. AND LATER, ROW CROP FARMERS AREN'T THE ONLY ONE'S ADJUSTING TO  TODAY'S CLIMATE. VINYARDS ARE MOVING NORTH TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY. 

MACHINERY PETE
THE LATEST COMBINE SALES NUMBERS FROM THE ASSOCIATION EQUIPMENT  MANUFACTURERS HAD NUMBERS CLIMBING. MACHINERY PETE JOINS US WITH A LOOK USED SALES. LAST THURSDAY ON A FARM AUCTION IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS VERY NICE 2009 MODEL. JOHN  DEERE 9770 STS COMBINE WITH 1902 ENGINE HOURS ON IT SOLD ON A FARM AUCTION IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR 120500 DOLLARS. THAT'S A VERY STRONG PRICE. THAT'S THE HIGHEST AUCTION PRICE  I'VE SEEN IN THE U.S. THE LAST 27 MONTHS ON 09 MODEL 9770. AND FOR PERSPECTIVE IF WE TALK  AVERAGE AUCTION PRICES WELL THE LAST 27 2009 MODELS THAT I'VE SEEN SOLD IN THE U.S. THE AVERAGE AUCTION PRICE EIGHTY TWO THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED FORTY SEVEN DOLLARS. AND IF WE TALK ALL  9770S BECAUSE OF COURSE THAT 09 MODELS THE OLDER ONE THE AVERAGE AUCTION PRICE SO FAR THIS  YEAR ON ALL 9770S EQUALS EIGHTY EIGHT THOUSAND SEVENTY SEVEN DOLLARS. AND THAT'S ONLY DOWN  FOUR POINT NINE PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR'S AVERAGE. REALLY. 9770S HOLDING THEIR VALUE PRETTY  WELL. NOW ONE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THAT AUCTION PRICE LAST THURSDAY OF 120800 BUCKS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT'S ALMOST EXACTLY THE CURRENT AVERAGE DEALER ADVERTISED PRICE ON AN 09  MODEL LIKE THE 9770. NOW IF YOU GO TO MACHINERY PETE DOT COM TODAY YOU'LL SEE ABOUT 70 OF  THEM LISTED FOR SALE. AND THAT AVERAGE DEALER AD PRICE ON AN 09 MODEL IS 120457 DOLLARS. AND ONE INTERESTING THING WE'VE SEEN JUST IN THE LAST 30 DAYS FOLKS. QUITE AN UPTICK IN SEARCH  TRAFFIC ON 0 9 MODEL 97 70S WHICH I GUESS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE HARVEST IS RIGHT AROUND THE  CORNER. BUT SEARCH TRAFFIC UP 41 PERCENT. THANKS GREG. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, THE CHANGING GROWING CONDITIONS FOR VINEYARDS. 

IN THE COUNTRY
VINYARDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S WARMER REGIONS ARE BEING ABANDONED AS WINEMAKERS ARE NOW GROWING GRAPES FURTHER NORTH-- EVEN AS FAR  NORTH AS NOVA SCOTIA.  FROM SOUTH AFRICA'S DROUGHT-STRICKEN VINEYARDS, TO FRANCE'S NOBLE  CHATEAUS, TO SUNNY VINEYARDS IN AUSTRALIA AND CALIFORNIA, GROWERS  AND WINEMAKERS SAY THEY ARE SEEING AND ADDRESSING THE EFFECTS OF  CLIMATE. IN THE AMERICAN WEST, VINTNERS IN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA ARE CREATING  NEW WINE-GROWING REGIONS IN AREAS KNOWN FOR THEIR COOLING COASTAL  BREEZES AND THAT'S CHANGING SOME FARMING PRACTICES. "CLEARLY, WE CAN'T MOVE THE VINEYARDS ONCE THEY'RE PLANTED, SO WE HAVE TO ADAPT TO THE  CHANGES THAT WE'RE SEEING. WE CAN LOOK FOR WAYS TO SHADE THE FRUIT, SO THE FRUIT STAYS COOLER.  WE CAN ALSO MAKE SURE THAT THE VINES HAVE THE NUTRIENTS, SOMETHING THAT WE WOULD HAVE DONE REGARDLESS OF WHERE WE WERE. BUT WE HAVE TO BE VERY MINDFUL THAT THE FARMING  TECHNIQUES HAVE TO CHANGE." "I RECENTLY SPOKE AT THE INTERNATIONAL COOL CLIMATE CONFERENCE IN ENGLAND, AND WE'RE SEEING  PLACES ALL FURTHER NORTH THAN THEY'VE EVER BEEN. IT USED TO BE THOUGHT THAT THE 50-DEGREE  PARALLEL WAS THE LIMIT OF VITICULTURE WORLDWIDE AND NOW WE'RE SEEING VINEYARDS PLANTED UP TO  57 DEGREES IN PARTS OF SCANDINAVIA, NOVA SCOTIA, PARTS OF CANADA, UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA." IN OREGON SOME VINEYARDS ARE NOW GRAFTING DIFFERENT ROOT STOCKS ONTO VINES TO PRODUCE MORE HEAT-TOLERANT PLANTS, AND BUYING LAND AT  HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN CALIFORNIA, THERE'S A NEWLY DESIGNATED WINE-GROWING REGION CALLED PETALUMA GAP THAT'S TAKING ADVANTAGE OF COOLING BREEZES FOR GRAPES.  

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US AT AGDAY I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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