AgDay Daily Recap - May 3, 2018

May 3, 2018 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
MAY 3, 2018

HEADLINES

TRACKING LAND VALUES AND THE OUTSIDE INFLUENCERS STILL UNKNOWN. WE'LL TALK FARM ECONOMY PREDICTIONS WITH THE CHIEF PROGNOSTICATOR AT USDA. IN AGRIBUSINESS...A MAY WASDE REPORT PREVIEW. AND TAKING CITY HALL ON A LONG HAUL IN NORTH DAKOTA. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CHEVY SILVERADO, THE MOST DEPENDABLE, LONGEST-LASTING FULL  SIZE PICKUPS ON THE ROAD. 

FARMLAND SURVEY
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FOUR YEARS OF NEGATIVE PROFITABILITY ON THE FARM - ESPECIALLY GRAIN  PRICES - IS WEIGHING DOWN FARMLAND VALUES...AND FARMER SENTIMENT OF  THE ECONOMY. RESULTS OF A NEW SURVEY FROM PURDUE UNIVERSITY SHOW FARMERS ARE GROWING PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FARMLAND VALUES OVER THE NEXT TWELVE  MONTHS AND BEYOND. IN FEBRUARY, 22 PERCENT OF PRODUCERS EXPECTED FARMLAND VALUES TO INCREASE IN THE YEAR AHEAD, BUT THE PERCENTAGE DIPPED TO 18 ON THE  APRIL SURVEY. AND THAT PESSIMISM REMAINS WHEN YOU LOOK AT FARMLAND VALUES FIVE  YEARS OUT. "GOING BACK TO FEBRUARY 53 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE IN THE SURVEY SAID THEY EXPECTED TO SEE  FARMLAND PRICES HIGHER FIVE YEARS AHEAD ON THIS MOST RECENT SURVEY THAT DIPPED TO 46  PERCENT. SO WE DID LOSE SOME OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO FARM LAND VALUES INTO THE FUTURE."WHEN IT PERTAINS TO LARGE FARM INVESTMENTS 68-PERCENT FEEL IT'S NOT A GOOD TIME TO DO SO. THERE WAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE MARCH  SURVEY TO THE APRIL SURVEY. ONE MOVE THAT COULD HELP EASE ECONOMIC ANXIETY IN FARM COUNTRY-- CLOSING TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIKE NAFTA. THE ADMINISTRATION'S TOP TRADE NEGOTIATOR SAYS THERE WILL BE NO NAFTA   DEAL THIS WEEK. U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT LIGHTHIZER SAYS NEGOTIATORS PLAN TO  MEET AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT'S HIS HOPE TO FINISH NEGOTIATIONS IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. HE SAYS THE WINDOW TO FINALIZE A NEW AGREEMENT CLOSES IN MID-MAY...IF  THEY WANT THE CURRENT CONGRESS TO APPROVE THE DEAL. 

CHINA SOURCING BEANS FROM BRAZIL
ONE OF THE BIGGEST OILSEED PROCESSORS IN THE WORLD IS CONFIRMING  WHAT MANY IN THE U-S AG SECTOR FEAR - THAT CHINA HAS ALL-BUT-STOPPED  BUYING U-S SOYBEANS. IN A REPORT ON BLOOMBERG NEWS, BUNGE'S C-E-O SAYS WHATEVER BEANS  CHINA IS BUYING, THEY'RE NOT COMING FROM THE U-S. INSTEAD THEY'RE  SOURCING THEM FROM BRAZIL AND CANADA. CHIEF EXECUTIVE SOREN SCHRODER TELLING BLOOMBERG AS LONG AS THERE  IS THIS BIG CLOUD OF TRADE UNCERTAINTY, CHINA'S REFUSAL TO BUY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. BUNGE IS STILL MEETING CHINESE DEMAND BY FILLING SHIPMENTS FROM  OUTSIDE THE U-S 

U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS
ALSO IN TRADE, A U.S. TRADE DELEGATION LEFT TUESDAY FOR CHINA HOPING TO  GLEAN TRADE CONCESSIONS FROM BEIJING.  PRESIDENT TRUMP TWEETING TUESDAY. "VERY MUCH LIKE NORTH KOREA, THIS  SHOULD HAVE BEEN FIXED YEARS AGO, NOT NOW," LIGHTHIZER IS NOT YET EXPECTING A RESOLUTION.  HE SAYS TALKS THIS WEEK WILL NOT RESOLVE TRADE ISSUES, BUT ARE PART OF A PROCESS.  TYNE "THANKS CLINTON HERE WITH DR ROBERT JOHANSON CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR USDA. AS WE LOOK AT THE  TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HEADING TO CHINA MAYBE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK THROUGH SOME OF THE  ISSUES THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. WHEN YOU LOOK AT AGRICULTURE WHICH SECTOR STANDS TO LOSE THE MOST WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE WITH CHINA. WELL YOU KNOW CHINA ARE NUMBER ONE TRADING  PARTNER FOR AG PRODUCTS. OF COURSE LAST YEAR CANADA TOOK OVER BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE LAST  FIVE YEARS OR SO CHINA HAS BEEN OUR NUMBER ONE DESTINATION FOR U.S. COMMODITIES. THE NUMBER ONE COMMODITY OUT OF THE BUNCH STANDS ALONE AND THAT SOYBEANS SOYBEAN AND  SOYBEAN PRODUCTS WE SELL MORE SOYBEANS. WE SAW ONE OUT OF EVERY THREE ROOMS OF OUR  SOYBEANS TO CHINA. AND SO IF CHINA DOES IMPOSE A 25 PERCENT TARIFF AND IT GOES INTO EFFECT  THAT'S GOING TO REALLY THROW THE MARKET FOR A BIT OF A LOOP. CERTAINLY WE CAN FIND NEW MARKETS  AND THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT MARKETS FOR SOYBEANS AND WE CAN MOVE THEM AROUND TO DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE THAT ARE LOOKING TO PROVIDE ANIMAL FEED. BUT I WOULD SAY THAT THAT'S  GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO FIGURE OUT JUST BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE PART OF OUR EXPORT  PROFILE. BUT YOU DO THINK KIND OF THE SHUFFLING OF THE CARDS CAN'T HAPPEN. OH FOR SURE. YES IT  WILL HAPPEN. NO DOUBT. BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA WILL FIND MORE WAYS TO SELL MORE SOYBEANS TO CHINA. WE'LL FIND WAYS TO SORT OF BACKFILL BEHIND WHERE BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA ARE SELLING THEIR  SOYBEANS AND WE'LL PROBABLY FIND NEW MARKETS TOO. I'M SURE YOU'RE TALKING TO OTHER FOLKS  AROUND THE BUILDING THAT ARE TALKING ABOUT DIFFERENT PLACES THAT WE CAN FIND NEW EXPORT  MARKETS FOR SOYBEANS. WELL WHEN WE LOOK SHORT TERM WE'VE SEEN THE VOLATILITY THAT TRADE WITH CHINA HAS CAUSED. DO YOU EXPECT MORE VOLATILITY TO COME AS WE WORK THROUGH THESE ISSUES WITH CHINA. OF COURSE YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT THE MARKETS THESE DAYS YOU SEE A STORY ABOUT  TOO MUCH RAIN IN THE MIDWEST OR SOMETHING AND YOU'LL SEE THE MARKETS RESPOND. SAME THING  ON TRADE. THE MARKET'S REALLY FOLLOWING A LOT OF THIS TRADE ACTION VERY CLOSELY. YOU SAW WHAT  HAPPENED WITH SORGHUM FOR EXAMPLE THE ANTI-DUMPING DUTY OF ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY NINE PERCENT. REALLY HAD AN EFFECT ON THE SORGHUM SHIPMENTS THAT WERE GOING OVER TO CHINA. THE  MARKET PAID A LOT OF ATTENTION TO THAT. I WOULD EXPECT THAT AS NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE  CHINESE AND THE TEAM THAT'S GOING OVER THERE NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MORE NEWS AND IT'S LIKELY TO SHOW UP IN THE MARKETS AGAIN AS YOU MENTIONED IT'S VOLATILITY GOES UP ONE DAY  DOWN THE NEXT AND SO IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHERE IT'S GOING TO ACTUALLY SETTLE OUT IN THE LONG RUN.  SO WE'RE HOPEFUL THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL AND CERTAINLY FROM AN EGG  PERSPECTIVE KNOW HOW IMPORTANT TRADE IS FOR OUR PRODUCERS. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU SO MUCH DR. JOHANNSEN. ALL RIGHT REPORTING FROM USDA HERE IN  WASHINGTON D.C. I'M TYNE MORGAN FOR AG DAY."

POSSIBLE RFS MEETING NEXT WEEK
FRESH WORD ON WEDNESDAY THAT THE WHITE HOUSE MAY HOLD ANOTHER R-F- S MEETING NEXT WEEK. E15 AND RIN MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PART OF THE DISCUSSION.  ALSO AT EPA, THE ADVANCED BIOFUELS ASSOCIATION HAS FILED SUIT ON EPA'S  RFS WAIVER ACTIVITIES.  IT WANTS TO KNOW WHETHER THE EPA VIOLATED THE LAW IN GRANTING WAIVERS TO REFINERIES.  THE GROUP FILED A PETITION IN THE U.S. COURT OF APPEALS IN WASHINGTON,  D.C. 

WINTER WHEAT TOUR
SCOUTS ARE IN THE HOME STRETCH OF THE 2018 WINTER WHEAT TOUR...AND  THROUGH THE SECOND DAY, QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH GRAIN WILL  SHOW UP AT HARVEST. WE SHOULD HAVE YIELD CALCULATIONS FROM DAY TWO LATER THIS MORNING.  AFTER THE FIRST DAY OF SCOUTING AND 317 STOPS TEAMS CALCULATING A  YIELD OF JUST OVER 38 BUSHELS PER ACRE FROM THE STOPS IN NORTH  CENTRAL, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE WHEAT QUALITY COUNCIL SAYS THAT COMPARES TO 43 BUSHELS PER ACRE  IN 2017. TOUR SCOUTS INDICATING THIS YEAR'S YIELD NUMBER WAS LIKELY HIGH SINCE  WHEAT IS ABOUT THREE WEEKS BEHIND NORMAL, ITS SHORT AND CONDITIONS  ARE DRY.  "WE'RE JOINED NOW BY ARLAN SUDERMAN INTL FC STONE ARLAN . WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON WHAT'S  GOING ON WITH PRICES AS THE TOUR'S HAPPENING. WELL THE INITIAL STRENGTH COMES FROM SHORT COVERING WITH PARTICULARLY A LOT OF SHORT COVERING. IN CHICAGO WE'RE RATIONING DEMAND WITH THE  HIGHER PRICES. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT'S JUSTIFIED. BUT THEN AGAIN IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY  OF THE WHEAT MARKET THE FUNDS DO HAVE A HISTORY OF PERIODICALLY JUST TAKING THE WHEAT MARKET  FOR A RIDE EVEN WHEN THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T JUSTIFY MAYBE NECESSARILY. WE WOULD THINK A GOOD EXAMPLE IS IN 2010 WHEN WE HAD DROUGHT AND NOW IN RUSSIA WE HAD PLENTY OF WHEAT  HERE IN THE UNITED STATES BUT WE NEARLY DOUBLED CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES IN FIVE WEEKS TIME.  SO THE FUNDS HAVE THAT HISTORY THEY COULD CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS. RIGHT NOW THEY HAVE THE  HEADLINES TO JUSTIFY IT. AND I THINK IT FITS IN WITHIN THE BROADER CONCEPT THAT THEY JUST KIND OF LIKE  THE AG SECTOR RIGHT NOW PARTICULARLY THE GRAIN AND OILSEEDS. HE SAYS WITH WHEAT MATURING SO LATE, YIELDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE  FALLING. THE WHEAT TOUR'S FINAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE HAS BEEN HIGHER THAN USDA'S MAY ESTIMATE IN 12 OUT OF THE LAST 13 YEARS. 

CROP COMMENTS
LET'S GET A LOOK AT SOME FIELD CONDITIONS IN THE MIDWEST. HERE'S MIKE  HOFFMAN. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. FARMERS IN NORTHERN INDIANA FINALLY GETTING HELP IN THE WEATHER  DEPARTMENT. HERE WE SEE DAVE DAVENPORT OF MARSHALL COUNTY FINALLY GETTING INTO  HIS FIELDS OVER THE WEEKEND. WE'RE TOLD THEY'RE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN  THE 70'S. IN ALL FAIRNESS, DAVE'S DAUGHTER WORKS FOR US IN THE NEWSROOM. AND NOW SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS. 

TEASE
WE'LL TALK DEMAND AND MEETING USDA'S EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS MAY REPORT  COMING UP IN AGRIBUSINESS. PLUS WE VISIT A TOWN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAT CAME-UP WITH A CREATIVE  SOLUTION FOR A NEW TOWN HALL. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
GRAINS MARKETS COOLING OFF IN EARLY TRADE WEDNESDAY. LETS SEE HOW  THINGS CLOSED FROM OUR FRIENDS ON THE FLOOR AT THE CME. SOYBEANS WE'RE A LITTLE BIT LOWER IT SEEMS THAT EXPORT DEMAND IS REALLY DECREASING NUMBER ONE FROM CHINA CONCERNS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING THOSE TARIFFS HAS REALLY HAS PEOPLE WORRIED. NOTHING HAS HAPPENED YET. BUT YOU KNOW WHO KNOWS ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. AND NUMBER TWO IT'S BRAZIL. BRAZIL'S GOT THE CROP IS REALLY REALLY BIG. RIGHT NOW THEY'RE LOOKING AT A NEW RECORD OF 117 MILLION METRIC TONS VERSUS LAST YEAR'S 114 MILLION METRIC TONS. THAT'S A HUGE INCREASE. AND SO LOTS OF BEANS AROUND. AND THAT'S REALLY PUTTING A LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE ON OUR U.S. MARKETS. BRAZIL'S CROP ON THE CORN SIDE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A LITTLE BIT WEAKER AND THEY'VE CUT THAT CROP SIZE BY 20 PERCENT. THAT DEFINITELY IS GIVING US A LITTLE BIT OF A LIFT. I'M VIRGINIA MCGATHEY

AGRIBUSINESS
"MIKE NORTH COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP OUR GUEST HERE AT AGRIBUSINESS TODAY  MIKE AS WE GET READY FOR ANOTHER SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT HERE IN MAY. I THINK DEMAND AND  WATCHING TO SEE IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS DEMAND AS WE PLANT A NEW CROP IS SOMETHING THAT WE'RE CONCERNED ABOUT. ABSOLUTELY. AND AS WE LOOK AT THE LAST COUPLE OF  YEARS ACREAGE FOR CORN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STATIC AND AT THE SAME TIME DEMAND HAS  CONTINUED TO GROW. IF YOU GO BACK A FEW YEARS YOU'LL SEE DEMAND A BILLION BUSHELS LESS THAN WHERE IT IS TODAY. AND SO AS WE AS WE TALK ABOUT THIS MAY WAS THE WHERE THE USDA WILL GIVE  US OUR FIRST LOOK AT THE 2018 2019 BALANCE SHEET. EVERYONE'S GOING TO BE WATCHING TO SEE  HOW AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE ON THE THREE BIG FRONTS FOR CORN. WHAT WILL WE DO FOR ETHANOL I THINK  IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT ETHANOL MOVES TO ABOUT A FIVE POINT SIX TO FIVE POINT SIX FIVE BILLION BUSHEL  NUMBER. WHAT DO WE DO TO FEED AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A BIG CONVERSATION WITH YOU KNOW SOME OF THE STRUGGLES THAT WE'RE SEEING IN WHEAT PRODUCING REGIONS. WILL THAT CORN AND FEED  COMPETITION IF YOU WILL PLAY OUT AS WHEAT SEES A LITTLE BIT OF STRUGGLING CROP GRAIN. WHAT WILL  THEY DO. WHAT WILL THEY DO WITH FEED AND LET'S REMEMBER THAT IN THE IN THE MARCH 1 STOCKS  NUMBER WE WERE A LITTLE BIT BEHIND PACE ON OUR FEED USAGE AND THAT ULTIMATELY BUILT UP A BIGGER STOCKPILE SO THAT COULD PLAY OUT INTO THAT. AND THEN LASTLY EXPORTS EXPORTS OBVIOUSLY  BEEN STRONG AS WE COME THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AND AS WE GO FORWARD WILL THEY  CONTINUE THAT PATTERN. WILL ANY OF THESE TRADE TALKS PLAY INTO THAT NUMBER. AND THEN OF COURSE  THAT PLAYS BACK AGAINST THE SHORTENED THE ACREAGE NUMBER 88 MILLION THAT WE DIDN'T EXPECT TO  SEE IN MARCH EITHER. AND NOW WHAT WILL THEY USE FOR YIELD. RIGHT. IT COULD END UP THAT WE HAVE  A BILLION POINT 3 ENDING STOCKS NUMBER AS WE COME THROUGH THIS REPORT INTEREST. SO THAT COULD  OFFSET THAT THAT COULD SET A REALLY NICE TONE FOR OUR MARKET. BUT HERE'S THE KICKER RIGHT. WE ADD  A COUPLE MILLION ACRES AS WE HEAD INTO JUNE'S ACREAGE REPORT. MAYBE MAYBE NOT WE'LL SEE BUT IF WE DO THAT THAT COMES BACK TO ABOUT ANOTHER 450 MILLION BUSHELS TO THE BOTTOM LINE.  AND THEN LET'S SAY WE GET A YEAR LIKE LAST YEAR WE END UP WITH ANOTHER 5 BUSHELS THAN WE COUNTED FOR. NOW WE'VE GOT ANOTHER 800 MILLION BUSHELS OUT THERE. NOW WE'RE BACK ABOVE  TWO POINT TWO BILLION BUSHELS AND NOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 3 DOLLAR CORN AGAIN. SO THE REALITY IS IS THERE'S ROOM FOR A LOT OF MOVEMENT IN THIS MARKET. SO WATCH THE WIRES TO SEE WHAT THEY  HAVE TO SAY. BUT YOU KNOW SET YOUR MARKETING PLAN TO BE ABLE TO MANAGE BOTH UP AND DOWN  IN THIS MARKET. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU APPRECIATE THAT. WE'LL BE BACK AGAIN JUST A MINUTE

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN AND MIKE AS WE LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP. BOY YOU CAN SEE THAT SYSTEM REALLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. YEAH AND THAT'S WHEN THAT'S WHERE WE'VE SEEN SOME OF THOSE SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN SOME TORNADOES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AND THERE'S LOTS OF ENERGY ACTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EACH ONE OF THOSE WAVES INCREASING YOUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE MAIN STORM IS NOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. AND YOU KNOW WHAT. I JUST WANT TO THROW THIS OUT THERE. OKLAHOMA DID NOT HAVE A TORNADO UNTIL MAY THIS YEAR. FIRST TIME EVER SO THAT IS THAT'S AN AMAZINGLY LATE START FOR THESE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. LET'S PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION YOU CAN SEE THAT CABOOSE OF ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE THESE WAVES MOVING ALONG THAT FRONT MOVING INTO THE KANSAS CITY AREA LATER ON TODAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DEVELOP ALONG THAT COLD FRONT BUT THERE'LL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT OUR MODEL JUST SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A LOT OF TIMES THE SEVERE WEATHER AND THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO WATCH IT BY TOMORROW MORNING. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT'S MOVING INTO PARTS OF INDIANA AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. THOSE AREAS AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL GO WITH THAT SYSTEM THERE THE NEXT LITTLE COOL FRONT COMING BEHIND IT WON'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT. AND WE HAVE ONE MORE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL. SO PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE PAST 24 HOURS THE MAJORITY HAS BEEN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS BUT ESPECIALLY ON UP INTO THE EASTERN MISSOURI VALLEY CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND NONETHELESS WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME DECENT AMOUNTS ALONG THAT FRONT AS YOU CAN SEE WITH SOME AREAS GETTING THREE OR FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IN THOSE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. SNOWFALL ESTIMATE IT'S ALL BEEN IN THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN CANADA AND ELSEWHERE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO FALL OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LET'S CHECK TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM FINALLY FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWARD WE'RE TALKING AT LEAST 70 DEGREES LOTS OF 80S SHOWING UP AS WELL. EVEN SOME 70S IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. THAT KIND OF TELLS YOU THAT IT'S NOT REAL COLD AIR COMING IN 40S AND 50S TOMORROW MORNING NORTHERN PLAINS. IT'S STILL PRETTY MUGGY FROM KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT STILL IN THE 80S. BUT LOTS OF 60S AND 70S BEHIND IT. SO WE REALLY HAVE TURNED A CORNER HERE ON SPRING FOR OUR JET STREAM YOU CAN SEE THE STORM SYSTEM ITSELF. THAT LITTLE RIPPLE MOVES ON EAST. NOT A BIG SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. A QUICK ONE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST. THEN WE KIND OF GO ZONAL AGAIN WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THAT IS A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS FRESNO CALIFORNIA. FIRST OF ALL A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES. CHECK IN ON GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA. MILD WITH A THUNDERSTORM LIKELY HIGH OF 73 AND LEXINGTON KENTUCKY PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM TODAY. HIGH AROUND 86​>

TEASE
THERE'S MORE MEAT HEADING TO STORES THIS YEAR. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR MARKETS? WE'LL TAKE A LOOK COMING UP NEXT. AND LATER WHEN SMALL TOWN POLITICS BECOMES A ONE STOP SHOP. 

DROVERS
ON DROVERS TV, RED MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTION INCREASED 2 PERCENT  DURING THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR.  MARKET WATCHERS SAY FURTHER INCREASES ARE EXPECTED. PURDUE ECONOMIST JIM MINTERT SAYS PORK PRODUCTION LED THE WAY WITH A  3.7 PERCENT INCREASE JANUARY THROUGH MARCH. BEEF WAS 2.6 PERCENT HIGHER AND POULTRY ROSE 1.4 PERCENT.  DESPITE RISING SUPPLIES, FED AND FEEDER PRICES ROSE DURING THE FIRST QUARTER...INDICATING STRONG DEMAND. BUT DRIFTING MARKETS IN APRIL MAY BE A SIGN SUPPLIES ARE TOO HEAVY. "CATTLE PRICES FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER WILL BE A FUNCTION OF MEAT SUPPLIES, DOMESTIC DEMAND AND EXPORT DEMAND, AND MINTERT SAYS WE SHOULD EXPECT OVERALL PRODUCTION TO  SURPASS LAST YEAR'S TOTAL. HE EXPECTS AN INCREASE IN FED CATTLE MARKETINGS AND AN INCREASE IN  SLAUGHTER WEIGHTS. THE COMBINATION COULD PUSH BEEF PRODUCTION 6 TO 8 % HIGHER OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS."HENDERSON SAYS WHILE DOMESTIC DEMAND HAS BEEN EXCELLENT, LARGE  COMPETING MEAT SUPPLIES WILL PROVIDE U.S. CONSUMERS WITH  ALTERNATIVES AND THAT WILL APPLY DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON FED CATTLE  MARKETS IN 2018. THE LATEST USDA PROJECTIONS CALL FOR A NEAR 4 AND A HALF PERCENT  INCREASE IN QUARTER TWO.  IF ACCURATE, THAT MEANS AN ADDITIONAL 1 BILLION POUNDS OF RED MEAT AND  POULTRY WILL BE ON THE MARKET DURING THE SPRING MONTHS. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, GETTING THE BIGGEST JOB IN TOWN DOESN'T ALWAYS  COME WITH PERKS. 

IN THE COUNTRY
IN THE COUNTRY - SPONSORED BY KUBOTA. TRACTORS, HAY TOOLS, UTILILTY VEHICLES, MOWERS AND  MORE. VISIT KUBOTA.COM TODAY. THE PHRASE "SMALLER GOVERNMENT" IS USED A LOT BY POLITICIANS AND  TAXPAYERS. SHRINKING THE SIZE OF THE BUREAUCRACY IS EASIER SAID THAN DONE. HOWEVER ONE TINY NORTH DAKOTA TOWN HAS ELECTED A MAYOR AND CITY  COUNCIL WHO REALLY ARE "PUBLIC" SERVANTS. AND THEY WORK IN A TOWN HALL SO SMALL, YOU COULD HAUL IT TO THE NEXT  TOWN MEETING. CLIFF NAYLOR FROM AGDAY AFFILIATE KFYR REPORTS. PLOWING MAIN STREET IS PART OF THE JOB DESCRIPTION FOR THE MAYOR OF FORTUNA, NORTH DAKOTA. GARY RUST IS ALSO THE AUDITOR AND THE TOWN'S PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT. GARY RUST:  "IT KEEPS ME OUT OF TROUBLE." IF THE CIVIC DUTY IS TOO BIG FOR ONE PERSON TO HANDLE, HELPING HANDS ARE PROVIDED BY ONE OF THE TWO BUSINESSES IN TOWN. MIKE FERRIS, TEACHER'S LOUNGE CO-OWNER:  "THE SEWER AND WATER ISSUES THAT COME UP, GARY  AND I GET TOGETHER, LOOK AT IT, DECIDE WHAT'S WRONG AND WHAT'S THE BEST FIX AND WE FIX IT AND  COME OVER HERE AND HAVE A BEER." CITY HALL ONCE WAS LOCATED IN A ROOM ADJACENT TO THE TOWN BAR, NOW A FORMER FEMA FLOOD  RELIEF TRAILER IS THE SEAT OF GOVERNMENT. GARY RUST:  "IT FITS OUR NEEDS FOR A SMALLER TOWN; WE DON'T NEED A LOT OF ROOM FOR MEETINGS. IF  WE DO, WE CAN GO ACROSS THE STREET TO THE SENIOR CITIZENS. THIRTY PEOPLE LIVE IN FORTUNA. THE CITY LIMITS COVER ONE-SQUARE MILE. GARY WON THE LAST ELECTION BY FIVE OR SIX VOTES. HE PLANS TO RUN AGAIN, BECAUSE WHO ELSE IS  QUALIFIED TO RUN THE TOWN, ALL BY THEMSELVES? I'M CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTING FOR AGDAY .  FORTUNA WAS FOUNDED IN 1913.  THE TOWN'S NAME COMES FROM THE ROMAN  GODDESS OF FORTUNE AND WAS CHOSEN BY SOO LINE RAILROAD OFFICIALS TO  ENHANCE THE EXPECTATIONS OF PIONEERS ABOUT THE PROSPERITY SETTLERS  WOULD FIND IN THE REMOTE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A  GREAT DAY. 

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