AgDay Daily Recap - May 4, 2018

May 4, 2018 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
MAY 4, 2018

HEADLINES

A TIMELINE DEVELOPS FOR THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL THE WHEAT TOUR WRAPS UP--AND YIELD EXPECTATIONS DISAPPOINT. IN AGRIBUSINESS...STAYING CALM IN BUMPY CATTLE MARKETS. AND LEARNING ABOUT THE CARBON PENALTY FROM COVER CROPS. AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CHEVY SILVERADO, THE MOST DEPENDABLE, LONGEST-LASTING FULL  SIZE PICKUPS ON THE ROAD. 

FARM BILL DISCUSSIONS
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. CONGRESS IS ON RECESS THIS WEEK, BUT THE CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE AG  COMMITTEE SAYS BY MID MAY HE EXPECTS THE FARM BILL TO BE READY FOR THE  FLOOR OF THE HOUSE. NEXT WEEK WE'LL SPEND THE TIME RUNNING THE TRAPS WITH MY REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES ...PLAN IS TO BE ON THE FLOOR THE FOLLOWING  WEEK. THAT'S CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY SPEAKING EXCLUSIVELY TO CHIP FLORY ON  AGRITALK THURSDAY. THE SAME DAY, THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE RELEASING IT'S LATEST  ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSE FARM BILL. IT PUTS THE OVERALL PRICE TAG AT 868 BILLION DOLLARS FROM FISCAL YEAR  2019 THROUGH 2028.  THE CBO EXPECTING PRICE LOSS COVERAGE SAFETY NET PAYMENTS TO GO UP  400 MILLION DOLLARS WHILE AG RISK COVERAGE OR ARC PAYMENTS FALL 300  MILLION. THAT'S JUST ONE OF THE CHANGES THE HOUSE BILL MAKES IN THE NEW  LEGISLATION. 52 PERCENT DROP IN NET FARM INCOME OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS. CHAPTER 12 BANKRUPTCIES ARE UP  33 PERCENT OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS ALONE. THE STRUGGLES OF FARM COUNTRY FINANCE IS FRONT AND  CENTER AS THE HOUSE PASSES A FARM BILL OUT OF COMMITTEE. BUT THE 26 TO 20 PARTY LINE VOTE WAS ANYTHING BUT BIPARTISAN BUDGET CHAIRMAN. THIS IS A FLAWED BILL AND IT'S A RESULT OF A BAD  AND NON-TRANSPARENT PROCESS. THE AG SIDE OR TITLE ONE OF THE BILL DOES WHAT MANY HOPED  MAINTAINS THE SAFETY NET PROGRAMS.  THE OVERALL GOAL FOR A FARM BILL IS A BILL THAT PROVIDES AN APPROPRIATE SAFETY NET FOR FARMERS.  NOT THAT THEY FARM FOR A PROGRAM BUT THEY FARM FOR THE MARKET FORCES. BUT WHEN ALL THE VAGARIES OF WEATHER PEST AND INSECTS AND FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND ALL THOSE THINGS COME  THEN THAT PRODUCER CAN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DO IT AGAIN NEXT YEAR HOPING ALWAYS FOR A  BETTER CROP. HRC AND PLC REMAIN BUT THE NEW BILL USES AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE DATA RATHER THAN DATA FROM NASS TO DETERMINE PAYMENTS. THE CHANGE DESIGNED TO REDUCE A WIDE  GAP IN PAYMENTS BETWEEN NEIGHBORING COUNTIES FOR THE NASS DATA IS NOT AS ROBUST IN SOME  AREAS OF THE COUNTRY PARTICULARLY WHERE CERTAIN NO CROPS MAY BE RELATIVELY NEW. IT ALSO INCLUDES THE RECENT CHANGES FOR COTTON AND A REWRITE OF THE DAIRY MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM.  I DON'T THINK THERE'S A SINGLE PERSON AG CIRCLES THAT WOULD TELL YOU THAT COTTON AND DAIRY  WEREN'T THE COMMODITIES WITH THE POOREST SAFETY NET AT CEDAR ACRES WILL STAIR STEP HIGHER UP  TO 29 MILLION. BUT RENTAL RATES WILL GO DOWN WITH THE HOUSE'S PROPOSAL. THAT'S BEEN ONE OF THE  COMPLAINTS WE'VE CERTAINLY HEARD A LOT ABOUT PARTICULARLY FROM YOUNG FARMERS AND RANCHERS THAT THE ABILITY TO TAKE ON NEW LAND OR THE ABILITY TO GET STARTED IN AGRICULTURE THEY'RE  COMPETING AGAINST THE CRP PROGRAM. AND SO IF YOU CAN GET THOSE RENTAL RATES LINED UP A LITTLE  MORE FAIRLY IN TERMS OF CASH FLOW RATES THAT MIGHT HELP OPEN THAT DOOR A LITTLE BIT.  CONSERVATION PROGRAMS WILL ALSO BE CONSOLIDATED WITH A FOCUS ON EQUIPE. IT ALSO MAKES AN  INVESTMENT IN ANIMAL HEALTH IN A MASSIVE VACCINE BANK.    REPUBLICANS ON THE COMMITTEE ALSO ROLLED IN A PACKAGE OF 15 AMENDMENTS DURING THE  HEARING RANGING FROM STATE TO STATE COMMERCE TO ORGANIC FOOD STANDARDS TO RULE BROADBAND. NOW ONCE THE FARM BILL CLEARS THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE IT HAS TO GO TO THE FULL FLOOR FOR A VOTE  THAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN MAY. ON THE SENATE SIDE FARMERS WANT A FARM BILL. NUMBER ONE I  DON'T WANT EXPEDITED AND THEY WANT TO GET IT RIGHT AND THEY WANT TO HAVE BOTH PREDICTABILITY AND STABILITY. SO THAT'S ON US. I SAT DOWN RECENTLY WITH SENATE AG COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN PAT  ROBERTS AND HE SAYS THEIR SIDE OF THE LEGISLATURE HAS A VERY DIFFERENT DYNAMIC. THIS IS NOT A  TIME FOR A REVOLUTIONARY FARM BILL REVOLUTIONARY BUT IT'S NOT REVOLUTIONARY. IT IS A TIME FOR  PREDICTABILITY FARMERS WANT TO KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON THERE. COMMUNITY BANKERS WANT TO KNOW THEY ARE IN A TOUGH SPOT.   THE SENATE IS YET TO SET A DATE FOR ITS MARKUP OR THE FARM BILL PROCESS AS A WHOLE. BUT  LEADERS FROM BOTH SIDES SAY THEY'RE NOT INTERESTED IN AN EXTENSION. I KNOW THAT THERE'S A  TEMPTATION AMONG SOME TO CONTINUE TO KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD TO EXTEND CURRENT LAW FOR SHORT PERIODS TO AVOID HARD TOUGH DECISIONS. I BELIEVE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT FARM BILL IS  A REALLY BAD IDEA. YOU KNOW YOU GET TO PASS THE AUGUST RECESS AND IT GETS TOUGHER AND  TOUGHER TO GET THINGS DONE IN WASHINGTON. SO WE GOT A BIT OF A TIME CLOCK. 

NEW MPP
U-S DAIRY PRODUCERS HAVE UNTIL THE END OF THIS MONTH TO ENROLL IN THE  NEW DAIRY MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM. ENROLLMENT OPENED IN APRIL AFTER USDA MADE CHANGES TO THE PROGRAM.  ALSO FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR - THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION  ANNOUNCED IT DEVELOPED A NEW INSURANCE POLICY FOR DAIRY FARMERS  THAT PROTECTS AGAINST LOSSES IN REVENUE FROM MILK SALES.  THE NEW PRODUCT OFFERS SEVERAL COVERAGE LEVELS BASED ON THE VALUE OF FARMERS' MILK. FARM BUREAU SAYS THE MAJORITY OF DAIRY FARMERS ARE PAID BASED ON THE  AMOUNT OF MILKFAT AND PROTEIN. THE NEW INSURANCE POLICY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE LATER THIS SUMMER.

CHINA AND U.S. SOYBEAN IMPORTS
LAST MONTH CHINA ANNOUNCED IT WAS CONSIDERING TARIFFS ON SHIPMENTS  OF U-S SOYBEANS. ON WEDNESDAY, THE TOP EXECUTIVE WITH BUNGE SAID CHINA HAS ESSENTIALLY STOPPED BUYING U-S SUPPLIES AHEAD OF ANY TARIFF IMPLEMENTATION.  SOME ECONOMISTS SAY CHINA'S IMPORTS HAVE AT LEAST DECREASED BUT  THERE ARE DIFFERENT FACTORS BEHIND IT.  ECONOMISTS SAY HISTORICALLY, CHINA IMPORTS LITTLE OF U.S. SOYBEANS THIS  TIME OF YEAR.MOST OF U.S. EXPORTS GO TO CHINA THE FIRST COUPLE OF  MONTHS OF THE MARKETING YEAR WHICH BEGINS SEPTEMBER FIRST.  ONE ECONOMIST - JOHN BAIZE, WHO IS A CONSULTANT FOR THE U.S. SOYBEAN  EXPORT COUNCIL SAYS A SHIPMENT OF U.S. SOYBEANS WERE SHIPPED TO CHINA  JUST LAST WEEK.  HE SAYS TARIFFF SITUATION WORKS BOTH WAYS, SOME U.S. COMPANIES ARE  NOT EAGER TO SEND SHIPS OF SOYBEANS TO SEA IF A TARIFF IS IMPLEMENTED  AND THOSE SHIPS HAVE TO TURN AROUND OR COULD BE DENIED IN CHINA - A SIMLIAR SITUATION WHICH IS HAPPENING WITH U.S. SORGHUM.  "I DON'T THINK ANY COMPANY IN THEIR RIGHT MIND IS GOING TO SELL A BUNCH OF SOYBEANS TO CHINA  NOW ON A DELIVERED BASIS WHEN THE POTENTIAL THAT SHIPMENT WILL GET STOPPED. I THINK YOU'D SAY  MOSTLY IT'S A STANDSTILL FOR EVERYBODY FOR NOW. 22 BUYERS DON'T HAVE TO PURCHASE NOW. THEY CAN BUY LATER ON IF THE TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT. AND THEY'LL KNOW MORE LATER IN THE YEAR. IN THE INTERRIM, THEY'RE BUYING EVERYTHING THEY CAN GET FROM SOUTH AMERICA."MIKE STEENHOEK EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE SOY TRANSPORTATION  COALITION SAYS THERE IS CERTAINLY EVIDENCE OF A DECREASE. HOWEVER, HE SAYS THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION WHETHER IT'S A DRAMATIC PULL-BACK OR IF IT'S SIMPLY A REDUCTION, WHICH SEEMS TO HAPPEN THIS TIME DURING  THE MARKETING YEAR. 

WHEAT TOUR UPDATE
ANOTHER WHEAT QUALITY COUNCIL HARD RED WINTER WHEAT TOUR, IS IN THE  BOOKS AND THIS YEAR'S CROP IS STACKING UP TO BE ONE OF THE  WORST IN  THE LAST FEW YEARS. SCOUTS PUTTING THE FINAL YIELD AT A 37 PER BUSHEL AVERAGE....THE LOWEST SINCE 2015. LAST YEAR THE CROP AVERAGE WAS 48 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE. BUT WITH THE CROP SO IMMATURE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR YIELDS TO MAKE  THAT MARK. KANSAS PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 243.3 MILLION BUSHELS, THAT'S DOWN 27% YEAR OVER YEAR AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE LATE  1960'S. 

CROP COMMENTS
MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LOOK AT CROP COMMENTS. MIKE.  GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.  CROP COMMENTS WILL START IN INDIANA COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA.  A "NASS"  CROP REPORTER SAYS MOST OF THE FIELDS HAVE BEEN TOO WET YET TO GET  INTO. SO FAR, SOME FARMERS HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO SPREAD SOME LIME.THEY WERE HOPING TO GET AHEAD OF FIELD WORK THIS WEEK. AND IN KENTUCKY FARMERS ARE STRUGGLED WITH WET AND COOL CONDITIONS  THIS SPRING. AS OF MONDAY JUST 15-PERCENT OF THE STATE'S CORN CROP HAD  BEEN PLANTED. THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS 35-PERCENT. AND JUST FIVE PERCENT OF WINTER WHEAT IS HEADED. IT'S USUALLY A THIRD BY NOW. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY.  TOMORROW IS NOT GOING TO BE QUITE AS WINDY AS MANY TIMES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR JUST A LITTLE BIT  IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AND WE'LL SEE A LITTLE WIND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST AND  THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BUT OVERALL NOT AS MUCH AS NORMAL. WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP BUT FIRST HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS YOUR NEXT PIECE OF EQUIPMENT IS ON MACHINERY PETE DOT COM. SEARCH EQUIPMENT FROM  DEALERSHIPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO FIND WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR. ONLY ON MACHINERY PETE DOT  COM. 

TEASE
CATTLE MARKETS TRYING TO CLIMB A MOUNTAIN OF PRODUCTION. WE'LL GET SOME DIRECTION ON PRICES COMING UP NEXT. AND LATER, HANDLING COVER CROPS THE WRONG WAY CAN COST YOU AT  HARVEST. DETAILS ON FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS IT WAS A MIXED DAY FOR COMMODITIES ALTHOUGH WHEAT  FOUND MORE GREEN. LETS GET DETAILS FROM THE CME. THE WHEAT MARKET TRADED SHARPLY HIGHER HERE ON THURSDAY. BOTH CHICAGO AND KANSAS CITY  CONTRACTS POSTED SHARP GAINS. THE KANSAS CITY FUTURES CAME WITHIN A COUPLE OF A SENSE OF  THEIR MARCH HIGHS UP AROUND 565. SO REALLY A PRETTY STRONG PERFORMANCE. THE WEAK QUALITY COUNCIL WAS OUT ON THEIR ANNUAL CROP TOUR OF HRW WHEAT COUNTRY THIS WEEK AND THE FINDINGS  WERE PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE. THE CROP WAS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT AND A  LOT OF AREAS AND THE YIELDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY HAD BEEN IN RECENT  YEARS. SO SOME FRIENDLY HEADLINES BUT NOT NECESSARILY UNEXPECTED HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. WE'VE GOT GLOBAL WEATHER ISSUES IN MULTIPLE PARTS OF THE WORLD AND THAT'S USUALLY WHAT IT  TAKES TO SUSTAIN A RALLY IN THE WEEK. AND THAT'S WHAT WE'VE SEEN HERE SO FAR. THE LIVE CATTLE  MARKET TRADED SHARPLY HIGHER HERE ON THURSDAY AMID A VERY STRONG CASH TRADE CASH CATTLE  TRADED 126 IN BOTH KANSAS AND TEXAS. THAT WOULD BE ABOVE THE 124 THAT WAS POSTED EARLIER THIS WEEK AND LAST WEEK I BELIEVE AGAIN JOE VACLAVIK FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME GROUP HERE  IN CHICAGO.

AGRIBUSINESS
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK I HAVE TO HAVE CHIP NELLINGER BLUE REEF AGRIMARKETING CHIP  AS WE LOOK AT THESE CATTLE MARKETS. THERE SOME DYNAMIC THINGS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW WHAT'S CATCHING YOUR EYE. YEAH WELL THE BIGGEST THING THAT JUMPS OUT. WE FINALLY HAVE THAT APRIL  CONTRACT OFF THE BOARD AND SO JUNE YOU KNOW IS THAT THE VOLUME FOR A WHILE BUT NOW IT'S WHEN  EVERYBODY IS GOING TO BE WATCHING AND WE'RE COMING ON NEARLY 20 DOLLARS UNDER WHERE THE CASH MARKET IS. WOW JUST FINALLY THEY SAY THE JUNES CAUGHT FIRE A LITTLE BIT HAD A CLOSE OVER  106 WHICH HAS BEEN REALLY HARD TO GET THROUGH BUT THAT'S THE QUESTION THE CATTLE ON FEED  REPORTS FOR SIX OR SEVEN MONTHS HAVE ILLUSTRATED WE'VE GOT BIGGER SUPPLIES COMING. THE  MARKET KNOWS THIS. IT'S WHAT'S HELD US BACK A LITTLE BIT. BUT IN THE SAME BREATH WE'VE RALLIED  BOXED BEEF TEN BUCKS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THE CASH MARKET STILL STRONG. SO THIS IS A  REAL BATTLEGROUND FOR THEM. NOBODY KNOWS HOW THAT'S GOING TO PLAY OUT AND IT COULD LEAD TO SOME REALLY VOLATILE TRADE. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS ESPECIALLY AS YOU LOOK AT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  WE HAVE A LOT OF CATTLE WE'VE REBUILT THOSE INVENTORIES SINCE 2011 AND NOW WE'RE DRY AGAIN.  DOES IT RAIN. ARE WE GOING TO GET SOME PASTURE AND IF NOT WHERE DO THOSE CATTLE GO. YEAH  THAT'S THAT'S A LOGISTICS ISSUE. IT'S UNFORTUNATE IF YOU'RE IN THAT AREA AND YOU'RE FACING THAT  DECISION RIGHT. DO WE. ARE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE ENOUGH FEED AND FORAGE IN PASTURE. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO LIQUIDATE SOME OF THIS STUFF. SO THAT'S UNFORTUNATE FOR THOSE PEOPLE. BUT  THAT'S USUALLY JUST A LOGISTICS THING THAT THOSE CATTLE WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE WHERE THERE'S  THERE'S BETTER FORAGE AND PASTURE AND GRASS. BUT THAT PLAYS INTO THE EQUATION AS WELL THEY'VE  HAD THEIR PROBLEMS IN THE PLAINS. IT'S REALLY GOING TO BE A WILDCARD HERE. THE DEMANDS REALLY GOOD AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT'S HELPED KEEP IT TOGETHER AND WE CAN MAYBE RALLY A LITTLE MORE.  BUT I DON'T THINK PRODUCERS SHOULD GET TOO BOLD UP RIGHT NOW ESPECIALLY IF WE DO RALLY A FEW  MORE DOLLARS BECAUSE WE DO HAVE TO FACE THOSE SUPPLIES THAT COME LATER THIS SUMMER AND WE JUST REALLY HAVE TO BE DILIGENT TO KIND OF MANAGE RISK OUT HERE BECAUSE YOU COULD STILL  HAVE SOME REALLY BIG SWINGS. YEAH REAL QUICK DO YOU THINK FUTURES IN CASH NEED UP. WELL THE  APRIL FINALLY DID GRUDGINGLY. I THINK IT WILL. BUT NOW THAT JUNE YOU KNOW YOU SAW A COUPLE OF  MONTHS LEFT IN THE JUNE. SO THE QUESTION IS ONCE WE GET INTO LATE MAY THE CASH MARKETS USUALLY BREAK SO THE JUNE IS GOING TO KEEP A LITTLE BIT OF A DISCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND LIKELIHOOD THAT WE DO SEE A BREAK IN CASH PRICES. ALL RIGHT GOOD STUFF CHIP APPRECIATE YOU BEING HERE. WE'LL BE BACK MORE AGDAY JUST A MINUTE.

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN LOOKING AT THE DROUGHT  MONITOR MIKE YOU CAN SEE THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DROUGHT. LONG TERM SOME OFTHESE PLACES HAVE HAD RAIN. YEAH THEY HAVE. BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HELPING IN THE LONG  TERM DROUGHT IN FACT THAT EXCEPTIONAL AREA HAS EXPANDED SINCE FOUR WEEKS AGO. IN FACT YOU LOOK AT THE DARKEST RED HERE AND LOOK AT THE EXPANSION OF IT FROM THE PANHANDLES OF  OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION GOING BACK ONE MONTH NOT QUITE AS  MUCH. IT WAS ALREADY BEGINNING. BUT AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS WEEK BY WEEK THAT AREA HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT WORSE IT HAS NOT GOTTEN WORSE IN THE SOUTHEAST STILL DRY THOUGH  SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN FACT IT'S IMPROVED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE  PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND  NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. HERE'S THE MAP THIS MORNING YOU CAN SEE SHOWERS AROUND MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES BACK IN THE EASTERN IOWA AS WELL. WE'LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  KIND OF DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT ONCE AGAIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERN  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS NOT ARCTIC AIR. IT IS PACIFIC AIR WHICH WILL MEAN PLEASANT CONDITIONS NOT THE REAL COLD  STUFF THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING. ONE MORE SYSTEM COMING IN TO THE FAR NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BY MORNING THAT WILL BE SPREADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA DOESN'T HAVE A LOT  OF MOISTURE WITH IT BUT IT CAN TOUCH OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS A LITTLE BIT OF SHOWER  ACTIVITY. AND WE ACTUALLY HAVE A SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE BAHAMAS IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT IT'S GOING TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. SO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND GOING END UP GETTING SOME DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE  DAY TOMORROW. YOU CAN SEE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST SPOTTY  SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM  SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO MISSOURI AND ALSO ANOTHER AREA IOWA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS JUST KIND OF DEPENDS ON WHERE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS POP UP AND  YOU CAN SEE WE'LL KIND OF SPREAD THINGS EASTWARD A BIT. NOT BE AS HEAVY AS WE HAVE BEEN  OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES STILL 70S BEHIND THE FRONT THAT'S WHAT  I'M TALKING ABOUT THAT'S NOT ARCTIC AIR THAT'S PACIFIC AIR 58 THOUGH IN THE SUBIN LOTS OF 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING GOING TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE  CORN BELT 60S BY THE TIME YOU GET TO THE GULF COAST AND THE WARMTH CONTINUES EVEN EXPANDS A LITTLE BIT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TAKE A LOOK AT THE JETSTREAM YOU  CAN SEE THERE'S LITTLE RIPPLES. QUICK LITTLE SHOTS OF COOLER AIR FOR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE  NORTHEAST EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH WE'RE TALKING A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT.  THAT'LL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY MILD. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT  SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR HELENA MONTANA COMFORTABLE TODAY CLOUDS AND SOME SUNSHINE HIGH OF 75. SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HIGH OF 78 IN CANTON OHIO MILD TODAY WITH A SHOWER A THUNDERSTORM HIGHER AROUND 74.

TEASE
COVER CROPS AND THE CARBON PENALTY ARE THE FOCUS OF OUR FARM  JOURNAL COLLEGE TV LESSON TODAY. THAT'S NEXT. AND LATER, RESEARCHERS FIND EVIDENCE GROWING UP ON A LIVESTOCK  OPERATION MAY KEEP YOU HEALTHY LATER IN LIFE.

FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV
HOW YOU PLANT AND TERMINATE YOUR COVER CROP CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON  THE CROP YOU PLAN TO HARVEST. FIELD AGRONOMIST MISSY BAUER EXPLAINS IN TODAY'S FARM JOURNAL  COLLEGE TV LESSON. THE UNIFORMITY OF THE STAND OF YOUR COVER CROP IS PRETTY IMPORTANT ESPECIALLY IF SOMETHING  HAPPENS LIKE HAPPENED HERE AND IT DIDN'T GET KILLED TIMELY. LET ME SHOW YOU THIS AS AN EXAMPLE. YOU SEE HOW THICK THE RESIDUE IS HERE FROM WHERE THE COVER CROP WAS A VERY THICK  DENSITY THICK STAND GOOD ESTABLISHMENT. BUT BECAUSE IT DIDN'T GET KILLED ON TIME YOU CAN SEE  THAT IT REALLY AFFECTED THE CORN. AND WE JUST BRING IT OVER HERE AND SHOW YOU AN AREA WHERE THERE WASN'T A GOOD STAND OF A COVER CROP. NOW LOOK AT WHAT THE CORN IS DOING HERE. THE  CORN IS VERY GREEN IN COMPARISON. THIS IS ALL PART OF THAT CARBON PENALTY AND TRYING TO BREAK  DOWN THIS RESIDUE. IT'S ACTUALLY HERE. SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HAVING COVERED CROPS FLOWN ON IN THERE MAYBE IT'S NOT AS QUITE OF A UNIFORM STAND IN POPULATION OR DENSITY THROUGHOUT THE  FIELD YOU MIGHT SEE SOME OF THIS VARIABILITY OUT IN YOUR FIELD ITSELF. AGAIN THIS PROBLEM HERE IS  EXAGGERATED BECAUSE IT WAS A REALLY LATE KILL ON THE COVER OF CROP IF THIS WAS KILLED WHEN IT  WAS SMALLER WE WOULD SEE THIS DRAMATIC EFFECT. BUT THIS IS WHAT THE DIFFERENCES STAND DENSITY  OF YOUR COVER CROP CAN DO IF IT'S NOT TAKEN CARE OF PROPERLY.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK CAN GROWING UP ON A LIVESTOCK FARM HELP KEEP YOU  HEALTHY AND LESS STRESSED LATER IN LIFE? DETAILS AFTER THE BREAK. 

IN THE COUNTRY
IN THE COUNTRY - SPONSORED BY KUBOTA. TRACTORS, HAY TOOLS, UTILILTY VEHICLES, MOWERS AND  MORE. VISIT KUBOTA.COM TODAY.THIS WEEKEND I'M TAKING THE KIDS PIGS TO THE COUNTY FAIR FOR TAG IN.   AND NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME STRESS GETTING THEM IN THE TRAILER. STRESS AND LIVESTOCK IS A COMBINATION THAT NEW RESEARCH HAS FOUND MAY HAVE A LONG TERM CONNECTION. THE CITY FOLKS AT THE LA TIMES REPORTING ABOUT A NEW STUDY OUT OF GERMANY AND PUBLISHED IN PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF  SCIENCES. THE RESEARCHERS RECRUITED MEN UNDER 40 WHO FIT TWO DISTINCT STORIES: ONE GROUP HAVING SPENT THE YEARS BEFORE THEY TURNED 15 IN A CITY OF  MORE THAN 100-THOUSAND PEOPLE AND NEVER HAD A PET IN THEIR HOME. GROUP TWO-- SPENT THOSE EARLY YEARS ON A LIVESTOCK FARM. THEN THE SCIENTISTS SET TO STRESSING THESE GUYS OUT...USING THINGS LIKE  PUBLIC SPEAKING, ANSWER JURY AND JUDGE QUESTIONS OR DOING MATH. AND THEY MEASURED THEIR RESPONSES RIGHT DOWN THEIR BODY'S CHEMICAL  REACTION. TURNS OUT THE GUYS FROM THE FARM STRESSED MORE--BUT WERE OVER IT IN  5 MINUTES. WHILE THE CITY KIDS STRESSED A LITTLE LESS BUT IT LASTED FOR MORE THAN TWO HOURS. THE RESEARCHERS SAY IT HELPS CONFIRM SOMETHING CALLED THE HYGIENE  THEORY. THAT GROWING UP IN A SANITIZED URBAN ENVIRONMENT IS MAKING OUR IMMUNE  OR STRESS SYSTEMS MORE FRAGILE. THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT BEING EXPOSED TO DIRT, ANIMALS AND MICROBES  EARLY IN LIFE THAT TEACHES THE BODY TO HANDLE THESE SYSTEM STRESSORS. OR MAYBE ITS THE STRESS OF WORKING WITH FAMILY AS A KID...KNOWING  YOU'RE NEVER IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME. EVEN IF THAT'S WHERE DAD PUT YOU. STRESS OR NOT, THE WORK HAS TO GET DONE. WISH ME LUCK. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A  GREAT DAY. 

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