AgDay Daily Recap -November 7, 2017

November 7, 2017 10:02 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
NOVEMBER 7, 2017


HEADLINES
THE PRESIDENT IS TALKING TRADE ON HIS TOUR OF ASIA. HARVEST IN NORTH DAKOTA--ISN'T AS BAD AS SOME EXPECTED. IN AGRIBUSINESS...A REASON TO PLANT WHEAT COVERAGE FROM THE FARM JOURNAL MILK CONFERENCE IN LAS VEGAS. AND THE ART OF HARVEST SOFT SHELL CRAB IN LOUISIANA. AGDAY-PRESENTED BY CHEVY SILVERADO. HIGH-STRENGTH STEEL FOR     HIGH-STRENGTH DEPENDABILITY.

TRUMP’S ASIA TRIP, TRADE AGREEMENTS
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WITH CONSTANT SABER-RATTLING FROM NORTH KOREA, SECURITY OF ITS GLOBAL NEIGHBORS GETS TOP BILLING DURING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ASIAN-PACIFIC TRIP.  BUT THE PRESIDENT ALSO CONTINUES TO PUSH THE KEY ISSUE OF HIS ECONOMIC AGENDA -TRADE. THE PRESIDENT WRAPPING UP TWO DAYS IN JAPAN, HE NOW                         &​nbsp;                      TRAVELS TO SOUTH KOREA WHERE THE COUNTRY'S SECURITY  REMAINS A TOP CONCERN. OVER THE NEXT WEEK HE'LL ALSO VISIT WITH HIS COUNTERPARTS IN CHINA, VIETNAM AND THE PHILLIPINES. WHILE IN JAPAN THE PRESIDENT SAID THE UNITED STATES IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS, BUT HE WANTED TO RESHAPE THE TWO NATIONS' TRADE RELATIONSHIP. THE PRESIDENT SAYS THE U-S HAS SUFFERED MASSIVE TRADE DEFICITS WITH JAPAN FOR MANY YEARS. WHILE THE PRESIDENT IS PUSHING FOR A BI-LATERAL TRADE DEAL, JAPAN STILL PREFERS A MULTI-NATIONAL AGREEMENT   SUCH AS THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP WHICH TRUMP ABANDONED. WE ARE MAKING TREMENDOUS PROGRESS I BELIEVE ON TRADE, IN PARTICULAR. BRINGING THE DEFICITS DOWN AND HAVING A VERY FAIR AND  EQUAL TRADE. AND I LOOK FORWARD TO FINISHING UP THE DISCUSSIONS. A LOT OF GREAT WORK AND GREAT FRIENDSHIPS HAVE BEEN BUILT AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BUILT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH." MEANWHILE THE ELEVEN REMAINING MEMBER NATIONS OF THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP WILL GATHER NEXT WEEK IN VIETNAM. THOSE COUNTRIES ARE CONFIDENT IN THE T-P-P, EVEN WITHOUT U-S INVOLVEMENT. THE CANADIAN AGRI-FOOD TRADE ALLIANCE IS URGING THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE A TRADE DEAL WITH THE ASIAN COUNTRIES. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, CANADIAN AG GROUPS SAY THE T-P-P IS THAT MUCH MORE RELEVANT.

CROP PROGRESS
IT'S BEEN A MIXED BAG FOR HARVEST THIS SEASON. SOME STATES ARE AHEAD WHILE OTHER HAVE BEEN WAY BEHIND. LETS SEE WHERE WE STAND NOW WITH USDA'S LATEST CROP PROGRESS NUMBERS. SOYBEAN HARVEST IS HEADED INTO THE HOMESTRETCH FOR MOST STATES IN THE MIDWEST. OVERALL 90-PERCENT IS HARVESTED. JUST A POINT BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. ANY DELAYS IN THE CORN BELT ARE JUST SINGLE DIGITS. WITH A MAJORITY OF BEANS OUT, FARMERS CAN TURN THEIR ATTENTION TO CORN. OVERALL CORN HARVEST IS 13 POINTS BEHIND WITH 70-PERCENT IN THE BIN. LAST WEEK WE WERE 18 POINTS BEHIND. STATE BY STATE - THE UPPER MIDWEST IS STRUGGLING TO FINISH. MINNESOTA CORN IS 27 POINTS OFF THE AVERAGE PACE. WISCONSIN IS 26 BEHIND. IOWA IS 17 BEHIND. THOSE ARE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS FROM LAST WEEK. AND THERE APPEAR TO BE FEW DELAYS IN GETTING WINTER WHEAT PLANTED. OVERALL IT'S 91-PERCENT COMPLETE. 75 PERCENT HAS EMERGED. AND THE CROP CONDITION RATING JUMPED THREE POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. 55-PERCENT IS NOW CALLED GOOD TO DESPITE MONTHS OF INTENSE DROUGHT.

NORTH DAKOTA HARVEST UPDATE
THIS SUMMER TIMELY RAINS IN AUGUST SALVAGED NORTH DAKOTA'S 2017 CORN CROP. PRODUCTION WILL BE DOWN FROM THE RECORD HARVEST LAST YEAR, BUT PRODUCERS ARE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT THEY ARE REGISTERING ON THEIR YIELD MONITORS. CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTS. FARMERS USUALLY DON'T LIKE SURPRISES, BUT THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOUR BUSHEL-PER-ACRE AVERAGE FAR EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. DAVID HAGER, HARVEY, ND FARMER:  "IT'S SURPRISINGLY GOOD  CONSIDERING THE LITTLE BIT OF RAIN WE HAD.  IT'S BETTER THAN WE  THOUGHT IT WOULD BE." DAVID HAGER SAYS HE'S AVERAGING 110 TO 120 BUSHELS PER ACRE. THOSE NUMBERS MAKE THIS CROP AVERAGE. STATEWIDE THE AVERAGE FOR CORN IS COMING IN AT 133 TO 134 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE.  MOISTURE IN AUGUST TURNED THIS CROP AROUND. IN MID JULY 55 PERCENT OF NORTH DAKOTA'S CORN WAS RATED AT FAIR, POOR OR VERY POOR. DALE IHRY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ND CORN GROWERS:  WE HAD A GOOD TURNAROUND IN THE CORN.  FORTUNATELY WE DIDN'T HAVE A KILLING FROST IN MOST OF THE STATE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER, SO THE ABILITY TO MATURE THAT CORN AND DRY DOWN HAS BEEN A HUGE FACTOR ON YIELDS. ONLY FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON HAGER'S CORN ALL SUMMER, BUT MOISTURE FELL AT EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME. HAGER:  YOU DRIVE A HALF MILE THROUGH THE FIELD AND THE YIELD MONITOR IS ANYWHERE FROM HIGH TO WAY LOW, JUST BECAUSE OF THE      SOIL TYPE AND LACK OF RAIN ON POOR SOIL. NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS PLANTED 3.4 MILLION ACRES OF CORN. STATEWIDE, THE BUSHEL-PER-ACRE AVERAGE RANGES FROM AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW.  IN A YEAR PLAGUED WITH EXCEPTIONAL TO SEVERE DROUGHT, PRODUCERS ARE VERY HAPPY TO BE CUTTING AN AVERAGE CROP. I'M CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTING TO AGDAY.                                         &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       

MIDWESTERN STORMS
LAST YEAR NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS HARVEST THE BEST CROP IN STATE HISTORY, AVERAGING 158 BUSHELS PER ACRE. POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS CHARGED THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN CORN BELT SUNDAY, BATTERING PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. A FARM IN JAY COUNTY, INDIANA TOOK A DIRECT HIT....A CLOSE CALL FOR THE FAMILY. " MY HUSBAND AND I WERE IN CHECKING THE PIGS WHEN THE TORNADO HIT. AND WE WERE ACTUALLY IN THE BARN AND WE MADE IT THROUGH, THANK GOD." ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN OHIO AT LEAST 8 PEOPLE WERE INJURED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS AN E-F 1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE STORMS ALSO HIT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVNIA KILLING TWO MEN.

CROP COMMENTS
NOW LET'S TURN TO MIKE HOFFMAN FOR AN UPDATE ON CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. OUR FIRST CROP COMMENT COMES FROM JOSH SCHICK OVER NEAR GRIDLEY, ILLINOIS. HE SAYS THE CROP IS IN THE BIN. NOW, HE'S JUST DOING SOME FALL FIELD WORK. JOHN KENNAYOVER IN ASHTON, ILLINOIS IS LOADING THE LAST TRUCK. CORN HARVEST IS COMPLETE! HE SAYS THE CORN YIELD IS GOOD, JUST A LITTLE BELOW 2016. JOHN SAYS SOYBEAN YIELDS ARE VERY GOOD. AD LIBAND NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.

TEASE
WE'LL  SEARCH FOR INCENTIVES TO PUT WHEAT IN THE GROUND--NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS. AND LATER, HARVESTING SOFT SHELL CRAB TAKES PLENTY OF    TIMING AND KNOW-HOW. BUT THIS INDUSTRY HAS  BEEN GOING THROUGH PLENTY OF GROWING PAINS. DETAILS FROM LOUISIANA TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY.

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS STARTED A FRESH WEEK ON THIS THE 11TH MONTH OF THE YEAR. GOODBYE. TODAY IN SOYBEANS THEY WERE UP THE MARKET IS FIRMING UP AHEAD OF THE USDA REPORT. THAT'S LATER ON IN THE WEEK. THE TRADERS ARE REALLY TRYING TO STAKE OUT THEIR CLAIM AND GETTING A JUMP ON THEIR POSITIONS AMID THE EXPECTATIONS OF A BULLISH REPORT. CORN NOT SO MUCH. IT HAS BEEN MIXED AND THE MARKET HAS BEEN MOVING SIDEWAYS AS IT IS. THEY'RE UNCERTAIN ABOUT WHAT THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE FOR THE YIELD NUMBERS. CERTAINLY THE MARKET HAS  BEEN HAD SOME GYRATIONS BUT IT REALLY HAS STAYED WITHIN A VERY  TIGHT RANGE OVER THE LAST NUMBER OF MONTHS WITH IT HANGING OUT    HERE ON ITS LOWS. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT THAT EVEN IF WE DO GET A   BEARISH REPORT THERE'S NOWHERE FOR THE MARKET TO GO CATHER WAS MIXED. MEATPACKERS CONTINUE TO PAY OFF AND THEY KEEP FUTURES PRICES VERY STRONG. WE HAVE A BIG USDA REPORT ON THE GRAIN SIDE THAT MAY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN EFFECT ON THE CATTLE MARKET. AND SO WE'RE GOING TO WATCH FOR THAT. THAT'S NOT COMING UNTIL LATER IN  THE WEEK. HAWGS ON THE OTHER HAND WAS LOWER AGAIN. CASH PRICES WERE EASIER TO START THIS WEEK OFF AND THE EXPECTED YOU KNOW FALL SUPPLIES ARE REALLY PLENTIFUL CERTAINLY AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY AND IT MAY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER. THAT'S                         &n​bsp;                      ALL FROM THE FLOOR AT THE SEA AND HE GREW IN VIRGINIA MCGATHEY.

AGRIBUSINESS
WINTER WHEAT PLANTING IS NEARING COMPLETION BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT ACREAGE THIS YEAR. TYNE MORGAN HAS MORE FROM THE ROAD IN TODAY'S ANALYSIS.HERE NOW WITH ARLEN'S SUDERMAN ARLEN LET'S TALK WHEAT. I SAW A PICTURE ON TWITTER THE OTHER DAY AND THIS FARMER SAID YES I'M PLANTING WHEAT. NO I DON'T KNOW WHY. YOU KNOW WHAT I'M HEARING A LOT OF THAT FROM THE FIELD RIGHT NOW. WHEN YOU LOOK AT PRICES SO WHAT IS THE INCENTIVE TO PLANT WHEAT AT THIS POINT. THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. I LIKE THAT QUOTE. IT DEPENDS ON WHAT PART OF THE COUNTRY YOU'RE IN. WE HAVE SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE THEY DON'T HAVE A LOT OF ALTERNATIVES. BUT WE ALSO HAVE AREAS THERE WHERE THEY'VE FINALLY  RECEIVED SOME RAIN AND SOME GOOD MOISTURE SO THEY'VE DECIDED PUT SOME WHEAT IN AS A COVER CROP. THEY'LL GRAZE IT OFF. THEY'LL  DECIDE IN THE SPRING WHETHER TO ADD FERTILIZER TO IT AND TRY TO SAVE IT THEN FOR GRAIN. BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE PUTTING WHEAT IN AS A ROTATIONAL CROP. CERTAINLY IT DOESN'T IT DOESN'T PAY OFF ECONOMICALLY RELATIVE THE ALTERNATIVE CROPS AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE AT A 100 YEAR LOWS FOR WHEAT ACRES. YEAH YOU DO NOT EXPECT THOSE WHEAT ACRES TO SEE MUCH OF AN INCREASE THIS YEAR. NO I THINK WE'LL BE DOWN ANOTHER FOUR TO SIX PERCENT THIS YEAR. GOSH THAT REALLY JUST HURTS THE WHEAT INDUSTRY. SO I MEAN    REALLY IT'S ALL ABOUT PRICE RIGHT NOW SO WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN TO GET MORE FAVORABLE PRICES AND BUY BACK SOME OF THOSE ACRES WELL WE'RE GROWING WEED ALL OVER THE WORLD. AND BECAUSE OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES WE'RE ENCOURAGING EXPANSION OVERSEAS LIKE IN THE BLACK SEA AREA WHILE WE CONTRACT ACRES. SO WE NEED TO GO FOR THE QUALITY MARKET FARMERS REALLY NEED TO PLANT FOR PROTEIN. WHEAT THEY NEED TO MANAGE FOR PROTEIN WHEAT AND SELL IT AS SUCH. SO WHEN DO YOU THINK WE COULD SEE IT TURN AROUND. I MEAN WHEN DO YOU THINK WE COULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIFE IN THESE THESE WHEAT PRICES WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE A WEATHER PROBLEM     SOMEWHERE IN A MAJOR PRODUCING AREA OF THE WORLD RIGHT NOW THERE IS NONE ON THE HORIZON. JUST ONE PROBLEM OR DO WE NEED MULTIPLE PROBLEMS CONSIDERING HOW MUCH OF A WORLD PRODUCT THIS REALLY IS. WELL WHEN YOU LOOK AT WORLD PATTERNS WE TEND TO HAVE YEARS AND THE WEATHER IS KIND OF FAVORABLE EVERYWHERE OR WHERE IT'S NOT FAVORABLE EVERYWHERE AND THEN IT TURNS AROUND QUICKLY AND THAT'S PROBABLY WHAT'S GOING TO END UP HAPPENING AT SOME POINT. ALL RIGHT ARLEN THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. STAY WITH US. WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK AND THEN WE'LL HAVE A CHECK OF    YOUR WEATHER ON AGDAY.

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN MIKE WE HAD SOME PRETTY NASTY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. WHAT DOES THIS WEEK LOOK LIKE. YEAH A LOT CALMER. FIRST OF ALL WE WERE NOT GOING TO SEE ANY THAT WARM HUMID AIR THAT DID HELP TO CAUSE SOME OF THOSE TORNADOES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE WARMER AIR HAS BEEN SHOVED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN THERE IN EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. BUT THIS FIRST COLD FRONT REALLY COOL THINGS DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDWEST OHIO VALLEY GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING SOUTHWARD IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT YET COMING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CANADA AND WE ALSO HAVE A POWERFUL SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST BUT IT'S NOT EXACTLY GOING TO COME BLASTING EASTWARD. LET'S PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION BY LATER  TODAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LOTS OF RAIN WITH THAT SYSTEM JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT ALL WITH A SECONDARY FRONT IT JUST KIND OF REINFORCES THE COLDER AIR THAT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE HEAD    THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT DOES MAKE   PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TAKE IT IN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THEN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM OUT WEST STILL KIND OF BARELY COMING ONSHORE I SUPPOSE AND HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH IT BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO MOVE EASTWARD. REAL QUICKLY THE WAY IT LOOKS SO PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WE'VE SEEN SOME DECENT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE  TENNESSEE VALLEY AND YOU CAN SEE AS WE ADD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS ONCE WE GET ALL OF THE INFORMATION HERE ON THE SCREEN YOU CAN SEE LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A LITTLE  BIT BACK ALONG THAT FRONT IN THE TEXAS MOUNTAIN THAT REAL HEAVY MAYBE A FEW SPOTS THERE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. TAKE A LOOK AT SNOWFALL ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WE'LL ADD SOME MORE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT WE'RE NOT TALKING ANY HUGE SNOWSTORMS COMING UP ANY TIME SOON. REALLY JUST THAT AREA FROM PANHANDLE IN NEBRASKA BACK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING. HIGHS TODAY THERE'S A COLD AIR 30S AND 40S PUSHED ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST LOWS TONIGHT  GOING TO DROP OFF PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS STILL 60S PRETTY MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST ENDING TO SEE THE COOLER AIR SHOVES THAT WARM STUFF ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA. THAT'S ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE LEFT WHERE IT'S REAL WARM. HIGH IS ONLY 25 IN BISMARCK ON OUR COMPUTER MODEL FOR TOMORROW. THAT'S ALL BECAUSE OF THE JET STREAM BIG TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. YOU NOTICE HOW IT KIND OF WEAKENS AGAIN THOUGH AND THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SO STILL LOTS OF CHANGES IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR CHEYENNE WYOMING COLDER IT'S JUST A BIT OF SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 29 MONROE LOUISIANA RATHER HUMID MOSTLY CLOUDY HIGH AROUND 80 AND FINALLY AKRON OHIO. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE AFTERNOON 46.

TEASE
SOME OF THE NATION'S ELITE DAIRY PRODUCERS AND TRADE ANALYSTS ARE IN LAS VEGAS THIS WEEK. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE DAIRY FROM THE FARM JOURNAL'S MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE. AND LATER, SOFT SHELL CRAB A SEAFOOD FAVORITE. WE'LL HEAD TO LOUISIANA TO CHECK ON THE CHALLENGES THE INDUSTRY IS FACING.

DAIRY REPORT
FARM JOURNAL'S MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE IS UNDERWAY OUT IN LAS VEGAS. AND THIS YEAR PRODUCERS IN ATTENDANCE ARE LOOKING ANSWERS TO WHAT'S BEEN A STAGNANT MILK MARKET. TYNE MORGAN IS IN VEGAS THIS WEEK ALONG WITH MARKET ANALYST MIKE NORTH. MIKE WHEN WE LOOK AT THESE DAIRY PRICES TODAY WE LOOK AT THAT JUST OVER LOAD OF MILK THAT WE HAVE. YOU KNOW WHAT IS THE GENERAL MOOD IN DAIRY COUNTRY RIGHT NOW. IT'S NEVER GOOD. AND THAT'S LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE PRICES THAT MANY ARE LOOKING AT FOR 2018. WE HAVE A 50/50 AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WE HAVE A 15 80 AVERAGE FOR THE WHOLE YEAR AND THAT IS A PRICE ZONE THAT DOESN'T GET ANYONE EXCITED. IT'S A LOT OF RED INK OUT THERE AND THAT SOURS A LOT OF ATTITUDES. SO THEN HOW DO WE SWITCH THESE PRICES WHAT DO WE NEED TO HAPPEN. YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRADE. WE LOOK AT DOMESTIC DEMAND YOU KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO GIVE AT THIS POINT. WELL I HATE TO BOIL IT DOWN TO SIMPLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BUT THAT'S REALLY THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION. THE REALITY IS WE HAVE TOO MUCH PRODUCT. IF YOU LOOK AT NEARLY EVERY PRODUCT CATEGORY WE'RE CARRYING MUCH MORE THAN WE DID LAST YEAR. AND WE DON'T HAVE THE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION TO HANDLE AT ALL. SO EXPORTS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HOPE. WHILE EXPORTS ARE COMING AND THEY'VE CERTAINLY BEEN GROWING BUT THEY'RE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO CLAW BACK THESE BIG INVENTORY BUILDS THAT WE'VE MADE OVER THE LAST YEAR. CAN DOMESTIC DEMAND GROW ENOUGH TO MAKE UP FOR KIND OF THE LACK OF EXPORTS THAT CAN'T AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM YES BUT IN THE SHORT RUN THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH INVENTORY TO GROW FAST. IT WOULD REQUIRE ABOUT A 4 TO 5 PERCENT GROWTH AND WE GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT A 1 AND A HALF PERCENT GROWTH. SO MIKE IN IN THE GRAIN MARKETS WE TALK ABOUT A BLACK SWAN YOU KNOW THAT POSSIBLY IT COULD BE A BLACK SWAN THAT REALLY TURNS THESE THESE PRICES AROUND. COULD SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPEN IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY TO TURN PRICES AROUND AND IF SO WHAT WHAT KIND OF A BLACK SWAN EVENT BE. SO WE'VE HAD A COUPLE OF THEM THEY'RE  KIND OF SMALLER SWANS BUT NEW ZEALAND HAD A ROUGH START TO ITS GRAZING SEASON AND SO IT'S BEHIND THE PRODUCTION CURVE. THE EUROPEANS HAD BAD WEATHER IN GERMANY AND FRANCE THIS YEAR THAT HELD BACK PRODUCTION THAT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE GROWN MORE RAPIDLY. WE'VE HAD SOME BUYOUT PROGRAMS IN EUROPE THEY HAD THE PHOSPHORUS REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE NETHERLANDS. IF WE SAW SOMETHING IN THE UNITED STATES IT GROSSLY RETRACTED SUPPLY THAT WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE BLACK SWAN EVENTS. MAYBE IT'S QUOTAS AT THE CO-OP LEVEL MAYBE IT'S YOU KNOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT PROGRAMS BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THOSE ARE. WHEN WE COME BACK, SEAFOOD FARMING IN LOUISIANA.

IN THE COUNTRY
SOFT-SHELL CRAB PRODUCTION CALLS FOR A COMMITMENT BECAUSE OF THE TEDIOUS TASK OF MONITORING THE CRABS THROUGHOUT THEIR MOLTING PROCESS. DECREASING CRAB POPULATIONS ARE THREATENING THE INDUSTRY, BUT FOR THOSE PRODUCERS HANGING ON, THE DEMAND FOR SOFT-SHELL CRABS IS STRONG. LSU AGCENTER'S CRAIG GAUTREAUX HAS THIS REPORT. SEE, HE CAN'T PULL THAT, HE'S TRYING TO MAKE THIS CLAW.DANIEL EDGAR HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOFT-SHELL CRABS FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS. HE SAYS THERE ARE MANY FACTORS INVOLVED IN PRODUCING THE PERFECT SOFT-SHELL, BUT ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT IS HAVING A SYSTEM THAT CAN MAINTAIN GOOD WATER QUALITY.DANIEL EDGAR:  THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IS WHEN YOU ADD MORE CRABS TO THE SYSTEM, YOU'RE GOING TO RAISE YOUR AMMONIA LEVEL, YOU'RE GOING TO RAISE YOUR NITRITE LEVEL. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE CHALLENGE FOR DOING SOFT-SHELL CRABS.DECREASING CRAB POPULATIONS IS ANOTHER HURDLE. JULIE LIVELY, A RESEARCHER WITH THE LSU AGCENTER'S SCHOOL OF RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES, IS EXAMINING A VIRUS SPECIFIC TO BLUE CRABS. THIS VIRUS HAS NEARLY A 100 PERCENT MORTALITY RATE AND COULD EXPLAIN SOME OF THE DIE-OFFS IN SOFT-SHELL FACILITIES.JULIE LIVELY:  WE'RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND IF THIS VIRUS IS ACTUALLY A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR THE SOFT-SHELL INDUSTRY, AND IF WE CAN IDENTIFY WHAT IS CAUSING THE PROBLEM, TO GIVE BEST MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS TO SOLVE IT.SOFT-SHELL CRABS ARE CONSIDERED A DELICACY BY HUMANS AND ARE PREFERRED BY MANY SPECIES OF FISH. DURING THE MOLTING PROCESS, THEY ARE VIRTUALLY DEFENSELESS AGAINST PREDATORS.EDGAR:  YOU'VE GOT REDFISH AND DRUM THAT EAT HARD CRABS. AND JACK CREVALLES, THEY EAT HARD CRABS. BUT OUT THERE, EVERYTHING EATS A SOFT-SHELL.ANOTHER ISSUE WITH RAISING SOFT-SHELL CRABS IS THEY MUST BE MONITORED AROUND THE CLOCK AND REMOVED AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME. LIVELY: THAT'S ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WITH SOFT-SHELL IS THAT PEOPLE HAVE TO CHECK THEIR SYSTEM EVERY FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AT LEAST TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE NOT STARTING TO HARDEN. IF PRODUCERS LIKE EDGAR ARE SUCCESSFUL IN PRODUCING THE RIGHT SOFT-SHELL, THEY HAVE NO PROBLEM SELLING THEM ON THE MARKET BECAUSE DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY. WITH THE LSU AGCENTER, THIS IS CRAIG GAUTREAUX REPORTING. LOUISIANA HAS SEEN ITS NUMBER OF SOFT-SHELL PRODUCERS DROP FROM AROUND 250 PRODUCERS TO FEWER THAN 50 IN THE PAST 15 YEARS.

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR ALL OF US AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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