AgDay Daily Recap - September 12, 2018

September 12, 2018 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2018

HEADLINES

PREPPING FOR USDA'S NEWEST FORECAST. WATCHING FOR HURRICANE FLORENCE-- EAST COAST  FARMERS ARE BRACING FOR IMPACT. IN AGRIBUSINESS...SEASONAL PRICE PATTERNS. AND MEET A MISSOURI CATTLEMEN SPENDING LESS  TIME ON THE FARM AND MORE TIME IN THE  STATEHOUSE  AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO. 

WASDE PREVIEW
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. LATER TODAY USDA RELEASES FRESH SUPPLY DEMAND  NUMBERS.  ANALYSTS ARE WATCHING TO SEE IF USDA STILL  EXPECTS A RECORD LARGE SOYBEAN CROP. (AND IF THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR THE LARGEST SOYBEAN CARRYOUT SUPPLY FOR THE U.S. ON TOP OF  IT) USDA RELEASES ITS CROP PRODUCTION AND WASDE  REPORTS AT MIDDAY. SOME ANALYSTS ANTICIPATING U.S. CORN YIELDS TO  DECLINE SLIGHTLY, WITH GUESSES AT 177 BUSHELS PER ACRE, DOWN ONE BUSHEL FROM LAST MONTH.  ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE, THE TRADE ANTICIPATING BEAN  YIELDS TO RISE-- IN AT NEARLY 52 BUSHELS PER ACRE. THAT'S A BUSHEL HIGHER THAN A MONTH AGO. HOWEVER CARRYOUT NUMBERS MAY HOLD THE  MARKET'S SWAY. EXPECTED TO BE STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO CROPS INCLUDING WHAT COULD BE A RECORD  NUMBERS OF U.S. SOYBEANS IN STORAGE. <"WHEN YOU LOOK AT U.S. CORN AND WORLD CORN IN THE BALANCE  SHEETS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 20 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR DRAW  DOWN ON BOTH OF THOSE BALANCE SHEETS, THE U.S. AND THE GLOBAL CORN SITUATION. 1:00 WHEN YOU LOOK AT BEANS, IT'S THE OPPOSITE. WE ARE GOING TO NEARLY DOUBLE OUR U.S. BEANS IN ONE YEAR IF THESE  PROJECTIONS ARE NEAR REALITY AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE A GOOD 10  PERCENT INCREASE IN THE GLOBAL CARRYOUT IN BEANS IF THE GLOBAL NUMBER IS CORRECT."> CROP SCOUTS ON THE PRO FARMER MIDWEST CROP  TOUR IN LATE AUGUST SAY MIDWESTERN SOYBEANS  LOOK GOOD WHICH MAKES THEM NERVOUS ABOUT PRICE.  MY CONCERN IS THE PRICE OF BEANS IF IT'S GOING TO GO  DOWN MORE. I THINK  WE'VE GOT REALLY GOOD WEATHER HERE FOR THIS FALL. YOU KNOW, OTHER  THAN THE FROST WHICH NO ONE HAS SAID THAT WORD YET, BUT OTHER  THAN A FROST, THAT'S THE ONLY THING THAT COULD SLOW DOWN THESE  BEANS."> 

AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT
ALSO IN THE REPORT AN UPDATE ON GLOBAL WHEAT STOCKS. MULTIPLE LOCATIONS AROUND THE WORLD DEALING  WITH ADVERSE WEATHER ISSUES DURING THIS  GROWING SEASON. ONE OF THOSE PLACES IS AUSTRALIA...WHERE PARTS  OF THE COUNTRY HAVE BEEN WRAPPED IN DROUGHT. A NEW WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST PUT'S THE  AUSSIE WHEAT CROP AT A TEN YEAR LOW.  THE COUNTRY CUTTING ITS FORECAST BY NEARLY 13  PERCENT.  AUSTRALIAN AG ECONOMISTS PUT WHEAT PRODUCTION  FOR THE 18-19 SEASON  AT 12-POINT-ONE MILLION TONS, DOWN FROM THE JUNE FORECAST OF 21-POINT-9  MILLION TONS. <I THINK THE TRADE WILL BE INTERESTED IN ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE  GLOBAL PRODUCTION SITUATION. WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF MAJOR PRODUCERS  CUT PRODUCTION RECENTLY. WE'LL SEE WHAT USDA DOES WITH THAT. THE  WHEAT BALANCE SHEET GLOBALLY TIGHTENING UP A LITTLE YEAR OVER  YEAR."> 

CROP PROGRESS
MEANWHILE USDA ROLLING OUT IT'S LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT A DAY LATE. THE AG DEPARTMENT CITING A TECHNICAL ISSUE AS  THE CAUSE OF THE DELAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMBERS, WHEAT  HARVEST IS WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN  PLAINS. 93 PERCENT OF THE SPRING WHEAT CROP IS NOW CUT. THAT'S 8 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE. AND ON THE WINTER WHEAT SIDE, 5 PERCENT OF THE  NEW CROP IS NOW PLANTED. USDA RELEASING IT'S FIRST LOOK AT THE NATIONAL CORN HARVEST. SO FAR JUST 5 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CROP IS  SHELLED. THAT'S JUST A COUPLE OF POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE. TEXAS, KENTUCKY AND NORTH CAROLINA LEAD THE  WAY.

HURRICANE FLORENCE
CAROLINA FARMERS RUSHING TO GET THE  CROP OUT BEFORE HURRICANE FLORENCE COMES ASHORE. IN SOYBEANS FIELDS, 31 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS NOW  DROPPING LEAVES. THAT'S 12 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE. LOUISIANA AND NORTH DAKOTA LEAD THE WAY IN CROP  MATURITY. FOR NORTH DAKOTA THE CROP IS 16 POINTS AHEAD OF  THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. FARMERS ARE RUSHING HARVEST AND WORKING TO PROTECT LIVESTOCK AS HURRICANE FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH IN THE ATLANTIC.  NORTH CAROLINA RESIDENTS ARE STOCKING UP ON SUPPLIES AND  PREPARING FOR WHAT COULD BE A CATEGORY 4 OR 5  HURRICANE...WITH WINDS TOPPING 130 MILES PER  HOUR. WEATHER OFFICIALS SAY FLORENCE IS SO WIDE THAT A LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE IS PUSHING 300 MILES AHEAD OF ITS  EYE. AND ONCE ASHORE, SWIRLING CLOUDS THAT COULD DROP 20 TO  30 INCHES OF RAIN SOUTH CAROLINA TO OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE LATEST DATA SAYS THERE'S A CHANCE THE STORMCOULD SLOW AND STALL ONCE IT REACHES LAND.  THE SEVERAL COASTAL STATES ARE EVACUATING. THOSE THAT STAY SAY THEY'RE GETTING PREPARED.  KEN GRAHAM, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: (SO STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND OF COURSE THE  WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. A LOT OF TREES DOWN A LOT OF POWER  OUTAGES SO WE'RE TRYING TO GET EVERYONE TO BE READY FOR THE  SYSTEM AND LOOKING AT THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  EVERYBODY ALONG THE COASTLINE NEEDS TO HAVE ALL THEIR PLANS IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY, AND LOOK AT THIS THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL  STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WELL INLAND EVERYBODY NEEDS TO  HAVE THEIR PLANS IN PLACE BY THURSDAY. ") NORTH CAROLINA FARMERS ARE RUSHING TO GET  CROPS OUT OF THE FIELD. LIVESTOCK OWNERS--ESPECIALLY HOG PRODUCERS  ARE PREPARING FOR THOSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. NORTH CAROLINA HOG FARMERS ARE MAKING FINAL  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR LIVESTOCK BEFORE  HURRICANE FLORENCE ARRIVES.  PRODUCERS ARE MANAGING LAGOONS, PREPARING  FOR POWER OUTAGES AND MOVING HOGS OUT OF  BARNS IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS TO HIGHER GROUND  SINCE THE CATEGORY 4 STORM IS SLATED TO DUMP AT  LEAST 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN POCKETS OF NORTH CAROLINA.  PRESIDENT OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORK COUNCIL,  BRANDON WARREN, SAYING QUOTE - WE ARE  CONTINUING THIS WORK UNTIL THE STORM WILL FORCE US INSIDE- END QUOTE.  A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORY ON THESE SIZE OF  HURRICANES. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  LANDFALLING CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES ARE RARE IN  THE MAINLAND U.S. THERE HAVE BEEN JUST 24 SINCE 1851—. CATEGORY 5 LANDFALLS ARE EVEN MORE RARE WITH  JUST THREE ON RECORD.  ALL BUT THREE OF THESE BIG STORMS HIT 27 SOUTH OF  SOUTH CAROLINA. THAT MAKES FLORENCE BOTH RARE AND UNIQUE. 

FMD VACCINE BANK
THE NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL INTENDED TO GATHER IN WASHINGTON TODAY TO LOBBY FOR  ISSUES IMPORTANT TO THE INDUSTRY.  NPPC PLANNING TO FOCUS TRADE, PRICES AND THE  NEED FOR FUNDING FOR A FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE  VACCINE BANK.  <"IF WE GOT THIS TODAY GET A FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE OUTBREAK, IT  WOULD COST OVER A TEN YEAR PERIOD OVER 200 BILLION DOLLARS. 128  BILLION DOLLARS WOULD COME INTO THE ANIMAL LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY. THAT  WOULD INCLUDE BEEF AND PORK. IT WOULD ALSO IMPACT CORN AND SOY  FARMERS CAUSE OF THE LOSS OF THE USE OF CORN AND SOY IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION."> NPPC IS ASKING CONGRESS TO ESTABLISH MANDATORY  FUNDING FOR A FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE VACCINE  BANK THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE FARM BILL. AFRICAN SWINE FEVER IS ALSO CREEPING UP ON IT'S  RADAR OF TOP ISSUES. ON THE FUTURE OF PROTEIN, USDA AND THE FDA ARE  PLANNING A JOINT PUBLIC MEETING TO DISCUSS THE  USE OF CULTURED CELL TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOP PRODUCTS DERIVED FROM LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY. IT'S SCHEDULED FOR OCTOBER 23-24 -- 2018,  USDA SAYS THE MEETING WILL FOCUS ON THE  POTENTIAL HAZARDS, OVERSIGHT CONSIDERATIONS,  AND LABELING OF CELL CULTURED FOOD PRODUCTS  DERIVED FROM LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY.  THE FIRST DAY OF THE MEETING WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE SAFE PRODUCTION OF THESE CULTURED FOOD  PRODUCTS AND THE OVERSIGHT REQUIRED.  THE SECOND DAY OF THE MEETING WILL FOCUS ON  LABELING CONSIDERATIONS.

CROP COMMENTS
MIKE HOFFMAN JOINING US AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR CROP COMMENTS. GOOD MORNING, MIKE. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.  KYLE WENDLAND IS CUTTING SILAGE IN NORTHEAST  IOWA. HE BEGAN DURING LATE AUGUST BUT BATTLED  MUD AND RAIN. KYLE THINKS FARMERS SHOULD MAKE  GOOD PROGRESS THIS WEEK.  OUR NEXT PICTURE COMES FROM LUKE SAYES IN VICK,  LOUSIANA.  HE SAYS IRRIGATED SOYBEANS ARE EXCELLENT IN HIS  AREA. LUKE SAYS THE OTHER CROPS VARY. COTTON  LOOKS GOOD BUT IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY FROM  WET WEATHER. HE SAYS CORN YIELDS ARE 10 TO 15  BUSHELS PER ACRE LOWER THAN NORMAL.  USDA SAYS  NOW TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR WINDSPEED FORECAST IS GOING TO BE A BIT  WINDY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IT WILL BECOME  WINDY THOUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND ALSO OUT  WEST AS YOU CAN SEE THERE FROM WYOMING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THEN BESIDES THE BREEZE IN PARTS OF THE  PLAINS AND THE WEST WILL START TO LOOK IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE  OBVIOUSLY FLORENCE WILL BE COMING TOWARD LAND AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND IT WILL BE GETTING VERY WINDY PARTS  OF THE CAROLINAS. WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP AT FIRST HERE  ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS. 

TEASE
WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT MARKETS TO DO THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT NEXT AT THE AGRIBUSINESS  DESK. AND LATER, THIS HARD WORKING CATTLEMEN HAS A  DAY JOB WITH BIG RESPONSIBILITY WE'LL MEET  MISSOURI'S NEWEST GOVERNOR TODAY ON IN THE  COUNTRY. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS IT WAS MIXED DAY FOR THE MARKETS  TUESDAY...AS TRADERS PREPARE FOR A HURRICANE  STRIKE AND ANOTHER BIG REPORT FROM USDA LATER  TODAY. DETAILS FROM OUR FRIENDS ON THE FLOOR. <​TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE SOYBEAN MARKET TODAY. JUST FEEL LIKE IT JUST DOES NOT FEEL LIKE WE'VE FULLY PRICED IN THE BEARISH FACTORS GOING ON IN THE MARKET TODAY. NUMBER ONE FACTORY THE AVERAGE YIELD ESTIMATE COMES IN FOR THE REPORT TOMORROW AND IT'S STOCKS COME IN AT A RECORD HIGH 846 MILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S UP NINETY SIX POINT SEVEN PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. THAT'S UP 180 PERCENT FROM TWO YEARS AGO. THE MARKET LOOKING AT CASH LEVELS CENTRAL NOI BASIS IS TRADING AT 30 CENTS UNDER THE BOARD TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WHILE THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS THAT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS CASH WILL BE TRADING A DOLLAR 20 PREMIUM. THANK YOU. TERRY ROGANSACK. COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME GROUP TRADING FLOOR. >

AGRIBUSINESS
<JEFF FRENCH TOP THIRD AGMARKETING OUR GUEST HERE AT THE  AGRIBUSINESS DESK TODAY. JEFF AS WE LOOK AT THE SEASONAL  TENDENCIES RIGHT NOW OBVIOUSLY WE'RE STEPPING INTO HARVEST SEASON. WHAT ABOUT ON THE TRADE SIDE OF THE LEDGER. ARE THERE  ANY PLAYS HERE RIGHT NOW. YEAH I MEAN THERE'S A BIG PLAY AND IT'S  IN THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT ON THE SOYBEANS 14 OUT OF THE 15 LAST 15 YEARS. YOU SELL BEANS MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER BUYING BACK FIRST  PART OF OCTOBER. IT'S A WINNER. AND YOU KNOW THIS YEAR IT  COINCIDES WITH THE START OF THE USDA REPORT POTENTIALLY SEEING RECORD YIELDS OUT THERE. SURE. ALL RECORD CARRY OUT OBVIOUSLY  BECAUSE OF THE TERRORIST IN PLACE ON CHINA. BUT WE COULD SEE  LOWER PRICES HERE. BUT IT'S ONE THING THAT EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT IT AND THE MARKET KNOWS ABOUT IT SO WE'LL JUST SEE IF IT ACTUALLY  HAPPENS AGAIN HERE THIS YEAR. WHAT WHAT TENDS TO BE BEHIND  THAT PUSH. AND THE REASON WHY WE GO FROM A LOW TO A HIGH IN THAT  IN THAT SPACE. WELL I THINK IT'S YOU KNOW THE RAMP UP TO HARVEST  RIGHT NOW THIS TIME. AND THE MARKET IS TRYING TO SEARCH FOR A BOTTOM AND LOOK FOR DEMAND. PROBLEM IS EVERYBODY IS KIND ON  THE SIDELINES NOT KNOWING REALLY WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN HERE ON  THE TRADE FRONT. YOU KNOW IF SOMETHING CHANGES THEIR YOGA YOU'RE GOING TO SEE PLENTY OF PEOPLE COME BACK IN ON THE BUY  SIDE AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER PRICES. HOW MUCH  WEIGHT IS THOUGH THE NEWS WE'RE GETTING AND THE THINGS THAT WE REPORTS WE'RE HEARING ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE YIELDS HERE FOR  SOYBEANS BECAUSE THEY THEY SEEM TO BE RATHER LARGE. YEAH THEY  DO. BUT YOU KNOW THE PRIVATE FORECASTS THAT WE'VE SEEN AND YOU KNOW IT'S NOT SHOWING NEW LOWS YET. AND YOU KNOW I THINK YOU  KNOW YOU HAVE A RELUCTANCE OF SOME SPECULATORS SELLING IT DOWN  HERE BECAUSE YOU KNOW WE'RE JUST A TWEET AWAY OF YOU KNOW THE MARKET BEING SHARPLY HIGHER. SO WE'LL SEE. WE'VE HELD THE LOWS  HERE ACTING PRETTY GOOD. BUT I THINK IF THE USDA CONFIRMS YOU  KNOW ANOTHER BUSHEL BUSHEL NOT HALF. INCREASE WE COULD SEE  PRICES MOVE LOWER. OK. WELL WE'LL DO SOME TO WATCH APPRECIATE  IT. THANKS JEFF. BACK FOR MORE JUST MINUTES. 0> 

WEATHER
<WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN MIKE ALL EYES ARE ON FLORENCE WATCHING TO SEE WHAT  THIS IS GOING TO DO THIS COULD BE A REALLY BIG STORM. IT COULD BE MAJOR IN TWO WAYS THE WIND AND THE WAVES AS IT COMES ONSHORE  AND IN THE RAIN AFTERWARDS INLAND. SO THOSE ARE THE TWO REALLY BIG  ISSUES BUT IT'S STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE WE EVEN BEGIN TO  SEE THE EFFECTS OF FLORENCE ON THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS ARE COMING  IN BUT THE ACTUAL EFFECTS STILL WATCHING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  AND THE GOLF THAT STILL HAS A CHANCE BEFORE IT COMES INTO THE  TEXAS COAST AND BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM OBVIOUSLY THAT IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS A CATEGORY 3 OR 4 HURRICANE LIKE FLORENCE  WILL BE. HIGH PRESSURE THOUGH DOMINATING AND STALLED OUT FROM  THE GREAT LAKES CENTRAL PLAINS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST WE HAVE TWO STATIONARY FRONTS AND BASICALLY EVERYTHING'S JUST LIKE A BIG  TRAFFIC JAM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS FLORENCE COMES  WESTWARD. EVERYTHING ELSE IS COMING TO A HALT. THAT'S WHY WE'RE  WE'RE SITTING HERE WITH VERY NICE WEATHER IN SOME AREAS AND NOT  SO NICE IN OTHERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST KIND OF BEING SHUNTED NORTHWARD AS YOU'LL SEE OVER  THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AND PUTTING THE MAPS INTO MOTION WILL  HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND FLORENCE OBVIOUSLY IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE COAST AT 7:00A.M. IT'S STILL A LITTLE A LITTLE WAYS OFF SHORE AND IT'S SLOWING DOWN. MOST  COMPUTER MODELS ARE CAUSING IT TO SLOW DOWN AND IT'S STILL ON OUR  MODEL SHOWING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY IT MIGHT EVEN BE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE THINGS ACTUALLY  DO START TO COME INLAND THE ACTUAL EYE OF FLORENCE SO  PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE AT PAST 24 HOURS. HIT AND MISS AND THE  EAST FAIRMOUNT TEXAS LOUISIANA GULF COAST AREA NOT TOO MUCH AROUND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WE'LL  ADD SOME MORE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LOUISIANA SOUTHERN  MISSISSIPPI A LITTLE BIT MORE UP IN THED.C. AND NEW YORK CITY AREA AND THEN WE JUST START TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF FLORENCE BY THE  END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. NOW TAKING A LOOK AT HIGH  TEMPERATURES VERY COMFORTABLE GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST LOTS OF  70S COMFORTABLY WARM I WOULD CALL IT MOST OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. OBVIOUSLY A LITTLE BIT MUGGY OR IN THE  SOUTHEAST WHERE LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 70S BUT WE'RE  SEEING LOTS OF 50S AND 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND  THE CORN BELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT HEATS  UP A LITTLE BIT. THERE WILL BE A FEW 90S SO MUGGY CONDITIONS  SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS THE JET STREAM I WANT YOU TO WATCH THIS LITTLE FEATURE RIGHT THERE. THAT'S  KIND OF FLORENCE. AND YOU'LL NOTICE WHAT HAPPENS AS WE PUT THIS  MAP INTO MOTION IT COMES IN AND IT KIND OF SITS THERE KIND OF MOVES SOUTH FOR A WHILE AND COMES NORTH GETS PICKED UP BY THE  MAIN JET STREAM EVENTUALLY. THAT'S WEDNESDAY. IT'S STILL ON THE  WEATHER MAP. SOME WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOR A WHILE THE WAY IT LOOKS. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE  A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. HEAD TO WALLA WALLA  WASHINGTON. FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT HIGH OF 71  WICHITA FALLS TEXAS HUMID. COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND HIGH OF  84 IN EVANSVILLE INDIANA A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS HIGH A  COMFORTABLE 80 DEGREES. 0>

TEASE
WE'LL CHECK ON THE TRADE IMPACTS TO AMERICA'S PRODUCE GROWERS NEXT ON THE PACKER TV. AND LATER, WE'RE OFF TO MISSOURI WHERE EACH  WEEKEND, THE STATE'S NEWEST GOVERNOR TRADES HIS SUIT AND TIE FOR TIME ON THE FAMILY FARM 

PACKER TV
ON THE PACKER TV, ACCORDING TO A NEW STUDY FROM RABOBANK, U.S. MANDARIN, WALNUT, GRAPE,  CHERRY AND PEACH EXPORTS WILL BE THE HARDEST  HIT BY CHINESE RETALIATORY TARIFFS. THE STUDY ESTIMATES SALES OF U.S. FRUITS AND NUTS  TO CHINA FOR THE YEAR ENDING JULY 2019 WILL RANGE  FROM JUST OVER 5% DOWN FOR ALMONDS TO 25%-30%  LOWER FOR GRAPES AND CHERRIES. HOWEVER, THAT SAME STUDY REPORTS THAT TOTAL  DEMAND FOR MOST U.S. FRUIT AND NUTS WILL  INCREASE OVER THE NEXT YEAR. ANALYSTS SAY INCREASING CHINESE DEMAND SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE TARIFFS.  ALSO FROM THE PACKER, DESPITE RETALIATORY  TARIFFS IN KEY MARKETS, U.S. FRESH APPLE EXPORTS  HAVE PERFORMED WELL SO FAR IN 2018. U.S. APPLE EXPORTS FROM JANUARY THROUGH JULY THIS YEAR ARE UP 21% IN VALUE AND 19% IN VOLUME  COMPARED WITH A YEAR AGO, ACCORDING TO THE  LATEST TRADE DATA. EXPORTS TO CHINA WERE DOWN BY NEARLY 20% IN THE  JANUARY THROUGH JULY PERIOD COMPARED WITH  YEAR-AGO LEVELS.  CHINA IMPOSED RETALIATORY TARIFFS OF ABOUT 50%  ON U.S. APPLES EARLIER THIS YEAR IN RESPONSE TO  U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINESE STEEL, ALUMINUM AND  OTHER GOODS. 

TEASE
LOOK PAST THE JEANS AND WORK TRUCK--YOU'LL FIND MISSOURI'S NEWEST GOVERNOR. HIS STORY NEXT.

IN THE COUNTRY
THE NUMBER OF POLITICIANS THAT COME FROM REAL WORKING FARMS CONTINUES TO SHRINK. IN MISSOURI, NEW GOVERNOR MIKE PARSON JUST  CLEARED HIS FIRST 100 DAYS IN OFFICE.  IN THAT TIME, HE'S DEALT WITH A DROUGHT, A TRAGEDY  IN BRANSON AND THE UPHEAVAL FROM ERIC  GREITEN'S  RESIGNATION. PAUL ADLER WITH AGDAY AFFILIATE KY3 REPORTS THAT  ON TOP OF IT ALL, HE'S BACK ON HIS LOCAL FARM  NEARLY EVERY WEEKEND. <YOU'RE REALLY JUST GOING TO CHECK ON COWS LIKE COWS. CAVING IF  YOU PICTURE MISSOURI'S GOVERNOR IN A SUIT EACH WEEKEND THAT ISN'T  THIS GOVERNOR HE'S WORKING SURVEYING HIS POLK COUNTY FARM MAYBE CALFSKIN GET SOME SORT OF DISEASE OR SOME SORT OF INFECTION. THINGS GO DOWNHILL PRETTY QUICK. PARSON WATCHES OVER  100 HEAD OF CATTLE AND IN THE PAST 100 DAYS THE STATE OF MISSOURI TO WAR WHILE WE MET ON A DRIZZLY DAY A DROUGHT DRIED UP CORN  STREAMS AND PONDS THIS SUMMER AND IT GRABBED HIS ATTENTION.  THE PARSON ROUNDED UP STATE AGENCIES TO HELP FARMERS. I THINK WE DID AS MUCH OR WE COULD DO THEN HE DID WHAT HE COULD AT  HOME. I FED HAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AUGUST AND I'VE NEVER FED HAY IN AUGUST BEFORE AND SO IT'S DISHEARTENING AS A FARMER WHEN  YOU'VE GOT TO DO THINGS LIKE THAT JOB ONE BEFORE THE DROUGHT.  CHANGING THE TONE FROM THE TOP. FORMER GOVERNOR ERIC GREITENS  OFTEN PUNCHED UP HIS WORDS WITH THE FIGHTERS LANGUAGE. IT WAS  REALLY IMPORTANT TO ME IS IMPORTANT TO THE ADMINISTRATION. I THINK IT WAS MORE OF A THING. WE JUST NEED TO REASSURE THE PEOPLE OF  MISSOURI THAT THINGS ARE GONNA BE OK HERE. CARSON LEARNED HE'D  BE MISSOURI'S 57TH GOVERNOR RIGHT HERE ON THIS FARM LESS THAN 2 YEARS AGO. THAT DIDN'T EVEN SEEM LIKE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THEY  SAVED MY LIFE THAT I'LL ALWAYS BE GRATEFUL FOR THE PARSON ROLLED INTO  SURGERY AT CACC SOUTH ON DECEMBER 24TH 2016 OPEN HEART SURGERY AS ROOSEVELT HALLWAY. I THOUGHT YOU KNOW WHAT. YOU  KNOW I'VE BEEN GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO LIVE A PRETTY GOOD LIFE AND  I'VE LIVED IT. AND IF IT TOMORROW IS TO BE THAT I'M GOING TO DO A BETTER JOB THAN WHAT I DID BEFORE. PARSONS SAYS HE FEELS BETTER  THAN EVER NOW. HE'S HAPPY VISITING WITH NEIGHBORS INCLUDING THE  BOY WHO GIVES HIM UPDATES ON HIS KHAOS. SO DON'T LOOK FOR A PRESIDENTIAL RUN SOMEDAY WHEN HE'S DONE SERVING AS GOVERNOR.  WE'LL BE BACK IN THE OZARKS ON PARSON FARM. I'M COMING HOME  AND I WANT TO COME ALSO SPEND SOME TIME WITH MY FAMILY YOU  KNOW AND I HOPE AT THE END OF THAT CAREER PEOPLE ARE GOING TO  SAY YOU KNOW WHAT. YOU KNOW MIKE CARSON DID A PRETTY GOOD  JOB. > PARSON TELLS KY3 HE'LL MAKE A DECISION ABOUT  RUNNING FOR ANOTHER TERM AS GOVERNOR IN ABOUT  A YEAR. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US HERE AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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