AgDay Daily Recap - September 13, 2018

September 13, 2018 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
SEPTEMBER 13, 2018

HEADLINES

USDA ROLLING OUT IT'S LATEST FORECAST FOR MAJOR GRAINS...MARKETS REACT. ACROSS THE BOARD, WE HAD BIG SHOCKS AND BIG BEARISH SHOCKS IN CORN. PLUS, THE EAST COAST PREPARES FOR THE SHOCK OF  FLORENCE. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WHEAT MARKET MOVES. PROTESTORS STEP THINGS UP AT PACKING PLANTS. AND A MASSIVE RESEARCH PROJECT LOOKS INTO THE  HEALTH IMPACTS OF EATING DAIRY. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO. 

WASDE
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS THE SAYING GOES...BIG CROPS GET BIGGER. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS FROM THE LATEST NUMBERS COMPILED AT USDA. USDA ROLLING OUT IT'S SEPTEMBER FORECAST FOR  THE NATION'S CROPS. IT'S ANTICIPATING CORN PRODUCTION TO ROLL IN AT 14 POINT 8 BILLION BUSHELS..ON AN AVERAGE YIELD OF  181 POINT 3 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE. THAT'S UP BY NEARLY 3 BUSHELS PER ACRE FROM IT'S AUGUST FORECAST OF 178. IF IT HOLDS IT WOULD BE HIGHEST NATIONAL YIELD  EVER FOR THE U.S. AMONG THE MAJOR PRODUCING STATES, YIELDS ARE  FORECAST TO BE RECORDS IN ILLINOIS, IOWA,  NEBRASKA, INDIANA, OHIO, AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  ON SOYBEANS, USDA IS CALLING FOR A RECORD 4 POINT 69 BILLION BUSHEL CROP. YIELDS TIPPING THE SCALES AT 52 POINT 8 BUSHELS TO  THE ACRE--ALSO HIGHER THAN IT'S AUGUST FORECAST. MARKETS SEEING PLENTY OF REACTION TO THE  NUMBERS AS CORN FUTURES FELL DOUBLE DIGITS,  WHILE SOYBEANS STEPPED INTO THE GREEN DURING  <THE YIELDS FOR THE REPORT FOR THE POSITIVE REPORT THIS WEEK BASICALLY CONFIRMS WHAT WE WE'VE HEARD ALL SUMMER THAT THE CROP  IS PROGRESSING ALONG VERY NICELY. WE'VE HAD GOOD GROWING  CONDITIONS AND WE ARE SETTING OURSELVES UP FOR A BUMPER CROP. IF WE LOOK AT THE USDA NUMBERS WE'RE LOOKING AT THE SECOND  LARGEST PRODUCTION VALUE FOR CORN THAT WE'VE EVER HAD. AND WE'RE  LOOKING AT THE LARGEST PRODUCTION VALUE FOR SOYBEANS. SO WE'RE DEALING WITH A LOT OF SUPPLY. > SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE BALANCE SHEET. USDA SAYS ENDING STOCKS (1.774 B BU) FOR CORN IS  ON THE RISE AS A LARGER CROP MORE THAN OFFSETS  A DECLINE IN BEGINNING STOCKS.  FEED AND RESIDUAL USE FOR THE NEW YEAR ALSO  RAISED 50 MILLION BUSHELS BECAUSE OF A LARGER  EXPECTED CROP AND ANTICIPATION OF LOWER PRICES.  ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE, WITH SOYBEAN CRUSH UP 10 MILLION BUSHELS AND EXPORTS UNCHANGED, ENDING  STOCKS ARE PROJECTED AT 845 MILLION BUSHELS, UP  60 MILLION FROM LAST MONTH. USDA PUTTING THE NEW SEASON AVERAGE PRICE BETWEEN 7-35 AND 9-85. <0THAT'S NOT A BIG ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE CARRY OVER ESTIMATE  ON CORN TO REALLY CHANGE THE STORY THERE CORN STILL GOT A GOOD  STORY TO TELL. WE JUST NEED THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR CORN RIGHT NOW US WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE BEAN CROP AND THE BEAN MARKET  DIDN'T CARRY OVER UP 845 MILLION BUSHELS. WE SEE THIS COMING.  WE'VE SEEN THIS COMING FOR QUITE A WHILE. I STILL THINK THERES ROOM TO GO TO THE UPSIDE ON THE DEMAND SIDE ON THE DEMAND SIDE FOR  SOYBEANS. BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE DEALING WITH THAT 845 CARY THAT'S  GOING TO BE A WET BLANKET OVER THE MARKET ALL THE WAY THROUGH HARVEST. > ON THE COTTON SIDE OF THE LEDGER, USDA RAISING  IT'S PRODUCTION ESTIMATES BY 447-THOUSAND BALES  IN THE SOUTHWEST, DELTA AND SOUTHEAST. ALL COTTON PRODUCTION IS FORECAST AT 19.7 MILLION  480-POUND BALES, DOWN 6 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. ENDING STOCKS ARE NOW PROJECTED HIGHER AT 4.7  MILLION BALES. EXPORT EXPECTATIONS ARE HIGHER AS WORLD  CONSUMPTION CLIMBS. IF IT HOLDS, THE CURRENT STOCKS TO USE RATIO WOULD BE THE LOWEST IN 8 YEARS. 

CROP PRODUCTION
THE LATEST CROP PRODUCTION REPORT FROM USDA SAYS COTTON HARVEST IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. 10 PERCENT IS NOW PICKED...WITH TEXAS LEADING THE  WAY AT 18 PERCENT HARVESTED.  MAJOR PARTS OF THE LONE STAR STATE HAVE BEEN IN  DROUGHT BUT USDA CONTINUES TO EXPECT STRONG  YIELDS. THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN IMPACTED THE MOST THIS YEAR. USDA  ESTIMATED A 40 PERCENT ABATEMENT RATE FOR TEX'S IN THEIR AUGUST  REPORT. CROP CONDITIONS IN OKLAHOMA ARE ALSO WORSE THAN LAST YEAR. TEXAS CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED A BIT BUT IT HAD  DETERIORATED IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO  2012 AND 2013 BUT THE USDA AUGUST ESTIMATE FOR THE TEXAS YIELD PER PLANTED ACRE IS HIGHER THAN IN 2012 AND 2013.THE  TEXAS YIELD PER HARVESTED ACRE IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER THAN IN  THE LAST FEW YEARS BUT IT'S ACTUALLY ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN IN 2016. 

U.S., CHINA TRADE
CURRENT TRADE TENSION CONTINUING TO BE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON EXPORT EXPECTATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY REPORTS THAT THE U.S. AND CHINA  MAY ONCE AGAIN RESUME TRADE DISCUSSIONS. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTING THE U.S. IS  REACHING OUT VIA LETTER ASKING FOR A FRESH  ROUND OF TRADE TALKS. THE REPORT SAYS THE U.S. IS PROPOSING TO HAVE  THE DISCUSSIONS IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT ASKING FOR MINISTERIAL-LEVEL DELEGATIONS. LAST MONTH CHINA SENT A MID-LEVEL TRADE  DELEGATION TO WASHINGTON WHICH RESULTED IN NO  RESOLUTIONS. THE U.S. CONTINUES TO THREATEN AN ADDITIONAL 200 MILLION DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS. 

CHINA AND SOYBEANS
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, CHINA SLASHING IT'S OWN FORECAST FOR SOYBEAN IMPORTS. IT SAYS FARMERS ARE REDUCING THEIR USE OF  SOYBEAN MEAL IN ANIMAL FEED DUE TO CURRENT  TRADE CONFLICTS. IT'S MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AFFAIRS  SAYS IMPORTS OF SOYBEANS IN THE NEW CROP YEAR WILL BE  ABOUT 83 MILLION TONS-- OFF ABOUT 10 MILLION TONS  FROM A YEAR AGO. 

SMITHFIELD SHUT DOWN IN CAROLINAS
CHINESE OWNED MEGA PRODUCER- SMITHFIELD IS PREPARING FOR THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FLORENCE- -SHUTTERING IT'S HOG PROCESSING FACILITIES IN THE  CAROLINAS. SMITHFIELD FOODS SHUT DOWN ITS TAR HEEL PLANT AHEAD OF FLORENCE.  THE PLANT, THE LARGEST IN THE WORLD, CAN  PROCESS 35,000 HOGS PER DAY.  THE FIRM WILL ALSO CLOSE ITS FACILITY IN CLINTON,  NORTH CAROLINA. SOME ESTIMATES SAY THE AREA HOLDS ROUGHLY 10% OF PORK PROCESSING CAPACITY. SMITHFIELD ALSO SAYING PREPARATIONS ARE UNDERWAY ON ITS APPROXIMATELY 250 COMPANY- OWNED FARMS AND 1,500 CONTRACT FARMS. 

HURRICANE FLORENCE
THE STORM EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN STALL  DROPPING WHAT SOME ESTIMATE TO BE 20 -30 INCHES  OF RAIN. STEVE GOLDSTEIN, NOAA LIAISON TO FEMA/NOAA METEOROLOGIST: TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER.  AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH FLORENCE  MAKING LANDFALL LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IN COASTAL NORTH  CAROLINA, THOUGH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AREA WELL AHEAD OF THIS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW  FLORENCE MAY STALL AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN MOVE VERY  SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE COAST. THIS COULD MEAN THAT PARTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR 24 HOURS OR  MORE." 

TRUMP TRADE PLAN
WE SHOULD GET MORE INSIGHT INTO THE PRESIDENT'S TRADE PLANS LATER TODAY. SEVERAL KEY OFFICIALS ARE SET TO TESTIFY ABOUT  CURRENT NEGOTIATIONS AND THE TARIFF AID PLAN  FOR FARMERS DURING A SENATE AG COMMITTEE  HEARING. CHIEF U.S. AG TRADE NEGOTIATOR GREGG DOUD, UNDERSECRETARY TED MCKINNEY AND USDA CHIEF  ECONOMIST ROB JOHANSSON ARE EXPECTED TO  ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PROGRESS OF TRADE  TALKS AND THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE RECENTLY  ANNOUNCED TARIFF AID PACKAGE.  THE HEARING IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN AT 10 AM ET.  

CROP COMMENTS
CINDI CLAWSON IS JOINING US THIS MORNING AND HAS  A LOOK AT CROP COMMENTS ALL FROM THE  BLUEGRASS STATE.  WE ARE STARTING OFF IN STURGIS, KENTUCKY.  JORDAN DOSSETT SAYS YIELDS ARE PRETTY GOOD,  NOT SETTING RECORDS BUT GOOD CONSIDERING THE  LACK OF MOISTURE THE AREA RECEIVED IN JULY AND  AUGUST.  USDA SAYS 77 PERCENT OF THE STATE'S CORN CROP IS  RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT.  AND JAMES BOYD OVER IN HODGENVILLE, KENTUCKY IS  DRYING GRAIN THIS WEEK. HE SAYS THE MOISTURE  CONTENT IS AVERAGING 19-POINT-5 PERCENT.. JAMES SAYS HE STARTED TO HARVEST BEFORE RAIN  ARRIVED ON SATURDAY. THE GROUND FINALLY DRIED  OUT ENOUGH TO HARVEST AGAIN YESTERDAY.  LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE WIND SPEEDS WE'RE EXPECTING  ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND IT'S GOING TO  BE MORE SO IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE PLAINS. EARLY TODAY WE  START TO SEE THOSE WINDS PICKING UP IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND  THEN OF COURSE HURRICANE FLORENCE IS GOING TO BE BRINGING SOME  STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND EVEN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. SO THAT'S  SOMETHING WE'LL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING OUR EYES ON OF A LOT MORE IN  YOUR FORECAST COMING UP IN JUST A FEW MINUTES. BUT FOR NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN ITEMS. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL CHECK MARKETS AND LOOK AT RECENT MOVES IN WHEAT.AND LATER A MASSIVE STUDY IN THE HEALTH OF DAIRY  PRODUCTS MIGHT SURPRISE YOU. WE'LL HAVE DETAILS  ON IN THE COUNTRY. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS MARKETS REACTING TO USDA'S REPORTS AND WEATHER. LETS SEE WHERE THINGS  CLOSED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. TODAY WAS KIND OF A SHOCKER. CORN ENDED UP FINISHING DOWN 14 CENTS ON THE DAY. IT'S A DECENT MOVE LOWER ESPECIALLY SINCE WE'VE GONE LOWER. THE MOVE TO GO LOWER AND SHORT, SHARP MOVES LOWER IS LESS AS YOU GO. SO, I WOULD SAY TODAY WAS AN EXAGGERATED DAY TO THE DOWNSIDE CONSIDERING WHERE THE CORN PRICES ARE TRADING ALREADY. THAT'S THE BIGGEST INTRA DAY DECLINE SINCE JUNE AND I THINK WITH CORN ENDINGSTOCKS MOVING TO 1.77 FROM A 1.63 AVERAGE, THAT'S ANOTHER REAL BIG SHOCKER. ACROSS THE BOARD WE HAD BIG SHOCKS AND BIG BEARISH SHOCKS IN CORN. FINALLY, AN ALL-TIME HIGH YIELD OF AN EXPECTATION OF 177.8 AND THAT'S BUSHELS PER ACRE. AGAIN, ALL THREE OF THE BIG ONES WITH CORN ALL CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE OR BEARISH. IT'S ALREADY GOING TO BE A BIG CROP. BUT RIGHT NOW THAT'S ME FOR CORN WITH THE USDA REPORT, KIND OF A BEARISH ONE ALL AROUND. SHORT MOVES LOWER. I'M SCOTT SHELLADY HERE AT THE CME GROUP FLOOR IN CHICAGO. USDA ALSO RELEASING IT'S WHEAT  FORECASTS...KEEPING EXPECTATIONS FOR GLOBAL SUPPLIES UNCHANGED. ANALYSTS INCREASING RUSSIAN CROPS BY 3 MILLION  TONS ON NEW HARVEST RESULTS. HOWEVER THOSE GAINS WERE OFF-SET BY SMALLER  CROP IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA.  USDA PUTTING GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS 5 PERCENT  BELOW LAST YEAR'S RECORD.  

AGRIBUSINESS
<ANGIE SETZER WITH CITIZEN GRAIN OUR GUEST HERE THAT  AGRIBUSINESS DESK TODAY. HAPPY TO HAVE YOU BACK. WELCOME  BACK. ALL RIGHT LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS WHEAT MARKET IT'S SOMETHING YOU TRADE QUITE A BIT AND BOYS BEEN DYNAMIC THE LAST MONTH OR  SO. DYNAMICS A GOOD WORD. IT IS A GOOD WORD I WAS TRYING TO USE  THE WORD OF THE DAY. YEAH IT'S DEFINITELY BEEN SOMETHING THAT YOU WOULD CALL EXCEPTIONALLY VOLATILE IS WHAT I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT. AND  YOU KNOW THE REALITY IS WE WENT INTO THIS LAST MARKETING YEAR WITH  THIS MINDSET THAT WE HAD HAD FOR THE LAST FIVE OR SIX THAT WE JUST  ARE AWASH IN WE. THAT'S BEEN MY FAVORITE SAYS GAMORA. WELL ALL  OF A SUDDEN IT WAS SUDDENLY LIKE FOLKS REALIZED WAIT A MINUTE. CHINA IS SITTING ON HALF OF THAT AND IF YOU HAVE PRODUCTION ISSUES  IN OTHER AREASU.S. CANADA RUSSIA AUSTRALIA YOU KNOW CETERA.  SUDDENLY SUPPLIES ARE A LITTLE BIT TIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THINGS GET INTERESTING AND EXCITING. SO THAT'S DEFINITELY WHAT  WE'VE BEEN SEEING IT SEEMS LIKE RUSSIA HAS BEEN THE  DOMINATING HEADLINES AS OF LATE. THE IDEA OF WILL THEY OR WON'T THEY WHEN IT COMES TO LIMITING EXPORTS. AND SO A LOT OF FOLKS THIS  PAST WEEK HAVE SAID WELL OBVIOUSLY THEY WON'T BECAUSE IT'S BEEN  RECORD EXPORT PACE. WELL IF YOU TALK TO ANYONE WHO ACTUALLY TRADES CASH WE IN RUSSIA THEY'VE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD BEFORE.  SO WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO. THEY'RE DEFINITELY GOING TO MAKE  SURE THEY GET THEIR PIECE OF THE PIEI.E. SHIPPING OUT SUPPLIES  MUCH AS THEY CAN BEFORE A REDUCTION TAKES PLACE AND THEY  SUDDENLY ARE UNABLE TO HIT SUPPLIES. SO THE QUESTION IS DO WE HAVE ENOUGH WHEAT OR ARE WE SHORT THIS YEAR. WE HAVE PLENTY OF  WHEAT BASED ON SPREADS RIGHT NOW I MEAN WE'RE OBVIOUSLY GOING  TO BE ABLE TO COVER OUR NEEDS AND THINGS OF THAT NATURE. THE CONCERN AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GLOBAL  MARKET STRUCTURE KNOW AND OBVIOUSLY IT SEEMS LIKE ANY TIME WE  GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THEU.S. WHEAT CAN BE PRICED INTO THE GLOBAL MARKET WE SEE THE SIGNIFICANT RALLY LIKE WHEAT'S JUST AFRAID  TO BE EXPORTED. SO IT PREFER TO SIT IN THE BIN WHICH. HONESTLY WE HAVE CREATED THIS FALSE DYNAMIC IN THE MARKET STRUCTURE THROUGH  BSR TO KEEP THAT WHEAT IN THE BIN. SO WE HAVEN'T A LOT OF WAYS FALSIFIED OR CHANGED UP THE MARKET STRUCTURE ACTUALLY ACTS AS  WELL. SO YOU HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE FACT THE BASIS IS 40 OVER YOU  KNOW FUTURES ARE HIGH AND STUFF OF THAT NATURE. SO THERE'S A LOT OF  STORIES LEFT TO TO SEE AND WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A FUN RIDE HERE  AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE WINTER WE GOT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH AUSTRALIA. SEE WHAT REALLY HAPPENS IN RUSSIA  VERSUS WHAT THEY TALK ABOUT. SO BUCKLE UP AND PUT YOUR HELMETS  ON. ALL RIGHT ANGIE THANKS. WE'LL BE BACK WORK IN JUST A MINUTE. 

WEATHER
<WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WHILE ALL EYES ARE GOING TO BE IN THE  SOUTH EASTERN PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES AS WE'RE WATCHING  HURRICANE FLORENCE. BUT WE WILL HAVE SOME OTHER PARTS OF THE  COUNTRY THAT SEE SOME RAIN AND SOME WET WEATHER AS WELL.  THAT'S GOING TO BE ALSO IN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN PARTS OF  THE GULF. OBVIOUSLY FLORENCE IS GOING TO BE MAKING A LOT OF RAIN FOR THE CAROLINAS. A COUPLE OF FRONTS THAT ARE GOING TO BE  AFFECTING PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST. NOT  A TON OF RAIN WITH THOSE BUT THERE WILL BE SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET VERY VERY  SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WE'RE LOOKING AT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  BECAUSE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN. SO NOT ONLY DOES THE SLOW MOVEMENT PROLONG THE POUNDING OF STRONG WINDS BUT IT'S  GOING TO PROLONG THE RAINFALL AND THAT MEANS SOME DEVASTATING  AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE SEEING AND HEARING MANY MANY STORIES OF FLOODING IN THE SOUTH EAST AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE DON'T SEE A LOT HAPPENING IN THE  NATION'S MIDSECTION. WE DO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  STARTING TO GET BACK INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TENNESSEE  VALLEY AND OF COURSE THE GULF COAST STATES AND AS FAR AS  PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THIS IS THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT YOU'RE REALLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO START PICKING UP WHAT'S GOING ON WITH  FLORENCE AS WE REALLY START TO SEE THAT RAIN MOVING THROUGH AND  COURSE IT'S OFF THE CHARTS. OUR CHARTER ONLY GOES UP TO THREE INCHES. BUT THIS WOULD BE 11 12 INCHES AND THAT'S JUST THROUGH  SEVEN O'CLOCK FRIDAY. SO THIS IS WE'RE GOING TO BE SEEING  EXTREME AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. OBVIOUSLY SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WE'LL BE SEEING SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS  WELL. TEMPERATURE WISE WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF RAIN IS PRETTY  WARM TEMPERATURES AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY STILL SOME TRIPLE DIGITS OUT IN ARIZONA. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE  PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE AS WE GET THROUGH  TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS WELL GETTING DOWN INTO THE 50S EVEN  SOME 40S IN THE NORTHWEST. BUT MILDER 60S AND 70S IN THE  EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THAT JETSTREAM  AND YOU CAN BLAME THE REDS IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE HEAT BECAUSE  WE'RE GOING TO BE SEEING THAT RIDGE STICKING AROUND WE DON'T SEE  A LOT OF MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WE'RE GOING TO SEE THAT TROUGH IN THE WEST AND THAT KEEPS THOSE FRONTS REALLY NOT  MOVING A LOT BUT WE KEEP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL WE  START BREAKING DOWN THAT RIDGE A LITTLE BIT AS WE GET INTO NEXT  WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST. NOW LET'S CHECK OUT THE WEATHER WHERE YOU LIVE. WICKENBURG ARIZONA SUNNY AND  HOT FOR YOU TODAY WITH A HIGH OF 101 DEGREES. EDNA TEXAS  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HIGH OF 84 AND WAVERLY  VIRGINIA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, OUR DROVERS TV REPORT INCLUDING PRODUCTION AND PRICE EXPECTATIONS FROM USDA. AND LATER, RESEARCHERS LOOK INTO THE HEALTH  IMPACTS OF DAIRY AND COME AWAY SOME SURPRISING  RESULTS. DETAILS ON IN THE COUNTRY.

DROVERS TV
ON DROVER'S TV, USDA'S LATEST SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT, REDUCING IT'S FORECAST FOR TOTAL MEAT  PRODUCTION. THE DROP RELATED TO LOWER PORK AND TURKEY  PRODUCTION. ON THE BEEF SIDE, FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED EVEN  AS SLAUGHTER NUMBERS RISE--OFFSET BY LIGHT  CARCASS WEIGHTS. USDA ALSO RAISING IT'S FED STEER TARGET PRICES  FOR Q 3 TO BETWEEN 115 AND 117 DOLLARS PER  HUNDRED WEIGHT. FROM THE TEAM AT DROVERS, ANIMAL RIGHTS  ACTIVISTS ARE EXPANDING PROTESTS INCLUDING  VIGILS AT MEAT PROCESSING PLANTS.  THE 'SAVE MOVEMENT' IS A NETWORK OF 100 ORGANIZATIONS WHO WANT TO QUOTE "BEAR WITNESS"  TO ANIMALS GOING TO SLAUGHTER. AND HOLD VIGILS IN AN EFFORT TO STOP TRUCKS FROM ENTERING SLAUGHTER FACILITIES. DROVERS EDITOR GREG HENDERSON SAYS SOME PROTESTERS ARE EVEN TRYING TO PET THE ANIMALS  AND GIVE THEM FOOD AND WATER. <GROUP LEADERS HAVE SAID THEIR GOAL IS TO HAVE A VIGIL AT EVERY  SLAUGHTER HOUSE ACROSS AMERICA. THE ANIMAL AG ALIANCE HAS  BEEN WORKING TO NOTIFY MEAT COMPANIES ABOUT THIS LATEST PROTEST TREND AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT THEIR  BUSINESS, DRIVERS AND PROTESTERS TOO. > A CELL PHONE VIDEO WAS RELEASED LAST MONTH SHOWING A TRUCK MAKING CONTACT WITH A PROTESTOR. HENDERSON SAYS THE PROTESTER IS  NOT INJURED IN THE VIDEO.  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, A LOOK NEW DAIRY RESEARCH AND THE IMPACT ON YOUR HEALTH. 

IN THE COUNTRY
NEW RESEARCH IS COMING OUT ALL OF THE TIME, AND ITS IMPORTANT WE CONTINUE TO LEARN ABOUT OUR  HEALTH AND WELLNESS. WELL A NEW STUDY ON DAIRY PRODUCTS MAY CHANGE  THE WAY PEOPLE LOOK AT ITS IMPACT ON HEALTH. RESEARCHERS IN CANADA FOLLOWING 130-THOUSAND  PEOPLE IN 21 COUNTRIES FOR 9 YEARS. THEY  PEOPLE IN THE STUDY WERE PUT INTO FOUR  CATEGORIES, THOSE WHO ATE NO DAIRY, PEOPLE WHO  HAD LESS THAN ONE SERVING EACH DAY, PEOPLE WHO  HAD ONE TO TWO SERVINGS PER DAY AND THOSE WHO  ATE MORE THAN TWO SERVINGS PER DAY. ONE OF THE MAIN COMPARISONS WAS MADE BETWEEN THOSE WHO ATE NO DAIRY AND THOSE THAT CONSUME  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS--MORE THAN 3 SERVINGS PER  DAY. THE TEAM FROM MCMASTER CONCLUDED THE HIGH INTAKE GROUP HAD LOWER RATES OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE AND STROKE. THEY ALSO HAD A LOWER MORTALITY RATE. DR. MAHSHID DEHGHAN, LEAD AUTHOR, MCMASTER UNIVERSITY "DAIRY IS A RICH SOURCE OF ENERGY, FOR EXAMPLE CHEESE IS A HIGH  SOURCE OF ENERGY, BUT WE DO NOT ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO CONSUME  MANY SERVINGS OF CHEESE PER DAY, AS YOU MENTION IT'S A HIGH  ENERGY, HIGH SATURATED FAT, BUT AT THIS LEVEL (PRESCRIBED) WE  ASSUME THIS IS A SAFE AMOUNT OF DAIRY TO CONSUME AND THE MAIN MESSAGE OF OUR STUDY IS FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT CONSUME (DAIRY).  WE'RE SAYING THAT WE NEED TO ENCOURAGE, NOT DISCOURAGE PEOPLE  WHO DO NOT CONSUME DAIRY TO INCREASE THEIR DAILY CONSUMPTION. WE DO NOT ENCOURAGE PEOPLE WHO HAVE VERY HIGH DAILY  CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE THEIR CONSUMPTION." OVERALL THE MCMASTER UNIVERSITY RESEARCH TEAM  FOUND ROUGHLY A 34 PERCENT LOWER RISK FOR  STROKE FOR THOSE CONSUMING MORE SERVINGS OF  DAIRY. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US HERE AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY. 

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