AgDay Daily Recap - September 14, 2018

September 14, 2018 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
SEPTEMBER 14, 2018

HEADLINES

CONGRESS HEARS ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION'S  TRADE PLANS...INCLUDING HOW THOSE AID PAYMENTS WERE CALCULATED. PLUS AN UPDATE AS FLORENCE MAKES LANDFALL. IN AGRIBUSINESS...LIVESTOCK MARKETS HANG TOUGH. AND MEET A CALIFORNIA COUPLE WORKING TO  PROTECT THEIR GRASSLANDS AND THE ENVIRONMENT. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO. 

TRADE AID
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS SENATORS ON THE AG COMMITTEE SEEKING  CLARIFICATION ON THE FUTURE OF TRADE AND AID  FROM THREE ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS WITH EXTENSIVE INVOLVEMENT. CHIEF U.S. AG TRADE NEGOTIATOR GREGG DOUD,  UNDERSECRETARY TED MCKINNEY AND USDA CHIEF  ECONOMIST ROB JO-HAN-SSON ANSWERING QUESTIONS  FROM THE COMMITTEE ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION'S  PLANS AND END RESULTS ON TRADE.  OUR NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN JOINS US  WITH MORE.  THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF CONVERSATION ON THE  SENATE AG COMMITTEE'S HEARING ON TRADE.  THOSE TESTIFYING SHARING WHAT THEY CLAIM ARE  TRADE DOWNFALLS.... <"CURRENTLY, THE EU RUNS AN AG TRADE DEFICIT OF OVER  15 BILLION DOLLARS WITH THE EU,">  AS WELL AS WHAT THEY SAY ARE ACCOMPLISHMENTS... <"WE ARE MAKING SOME HEADWAY, LAST YEAR THESE INCLUDED EASING REGULATIONS ON U.S. CITRUS INTO THE EU, U.S. DDGS INTO  VIETNAM, REINTERING U.S. CHIPPING POTATOES INTO JAPAN."> MCKINNEY SAYING WHEN THE YEAR IS COMPLETE, USDA WILL HAVE DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF FORMAL AG  TRADE MISSIONS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.  HOWEVER, A LOT OF ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON USDA'S  CHIEF AG ECNOMIST ROBERT JO-HAN-SON WHO HELPED  DEVELOP THE PRESIDENT'S TRUMP TARIFF AID PLAN  AND HOW HE CAME UP WITH THE NUMBERS FOR FARMER PAYMENT ASSISTANCE. <"WHEN WE PUT THIS PROGRAM TOGETHER, CERTAINLY ONE WAY WE  COULD HAVE DONE IT IS KEYING OFF PRICES, WE DECIDED NOT TO USE THE PRICE DRIVEN METHODOLOGY BUT LOOK AT GROSS TRADE  DAMAGES.">HE SAYS THAT'S WHY TRADE DAMAGES ARE SIMPLY  GOING TO BE HIGHER FOR THOSE COMMODITIES THAT  HAVE EXPORTED SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES TO CHINA. <"THAT'S WHY YOU SEE LARGE PAYMENTS DIRECTED  AT SOYBEANS BECAUSE SOYBEANS WAS OUR LARGEST EXPORT TO CHINA.  AND ON THE OTHER HAND FOR PRODUCERES OF CORN, WE DON'T SELL AS MUCH CORN TO RELATIATING COUNTRIES. THAT'S WHY PAYMENTS ARE SMALLER."> SOME AG GROUPS SUCH AS THE NATIONAL  ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS SAYS THEIR  ASSISTANCE OF 14 CENTS PER BUSHEL IS TOO LOW.  SAYING IN A STATEMENT: - CHINA HASN'T PURCHASED  ANY WHEAT FROM THE UNITED STATES SINCE MARCH,  FURTHER WE ESTIMATE THAT HTE ONGOING TRADE  WAR WILL CAUSE A 75 CENT BUSHEL PRICE DECREASE AND A REDUCTION IN GLOBAL WHEAT PRODUCTION-  SOME SENATORS DURING THE HEARING QUESTIONING  WHY COTTON FOR EXAMPLE IS SEEING A PAYMENTS  WHEN THEIR PRICES HAVEN'T BEEN AS HURT AS OTHER  SECTORS. <"WE SELL A LOT OF COTTON TO CHINA. THAT'S THE REASON WHY WE WOULD  EXPECT THESE TARIFFS TO SIGNFICANTLY IMPACT COTTON EXPORTS TO  CHINA. BECAUSE WE USE THE WTO APPROACH OF LOOKING AT TRADE DAMAGES AND NOT NECESSARILY LOOKING AT PRICES, WE SHOW  DAMAGES FROM THE TARIFFS TO BE WHAT THEY ARE FOR SOYBEANS AND  COTTON ETC."> HOWEVER, JOHANSON SAYS THE METHOLOGY COULD CHANGE IF THERE'S A SECOND PAYMENT COMING LATE  IN 2018 OR EARLY 2019.  <"THAT MAY INCLUDE A SEPERATION OF OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS PRICES,  TRADE, OTHER TARIFFS WHICH MAY OCCUR OR AS LIKE SOME SENATORS  MAY ASK TODAY, IT MAY INCLUDE BASIS IMPACTS WE MAY SEE IN  DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY,"> THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF CONVERSATION ON THE  SENATE AG COMMITTEE'S HEARING ON TRADE.  THOSE TESTIFYING SHARING WHAT THEY SAY ARE  TRADE DOWNFALLS....  <"CURRENTLY, THE EU RUNS AN AG TRADE DEFICIT OF OVER  15 BILLION  DOLLARS WITH THE EU,">  AS WELL AS WHAT THEY SAY IS PROGRESS MADE WITH  TRADE.  <"ALL TOLD WHEN THE YEAR IS COMPLETE, WE WILL HAVE  DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF FORMAL AG TRADE MISSIONS FROM YEAR'S PAST."> <"BEEF AND PORK FOR EXAMPLE IN THE SOUTH KOREA AFTER KORUS  AGREEMENT HAS BEEN AT RECORD LEVELS."> <"WE ARE MAKING SOME HEADWAY, LAST YEAR THESE INCLUDED  EASING REGULATIONS ON U.S. CITRUS INTO THE EU, U.S. DDGS INTO VIETNAM, REINTERING U.S. CHIPPING POTATOES INTO JAPAN."> SOME AG GROUPS SUCH AS THE NATIONAL  ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS SAYING THEIR <"BEEF AND PORK FOR EXAMPLE IN THE SOUTH KOREA AFTER KORUS  AGREEMENT HAS BEEN AT RECORD LEVELS."> DESPITE USING THOSE MODELS, DOUD SAID IN HIS TESTIMONY - AT THE WORLD TRADE  ORGANIZATION, THE U.S. IS PUSHING FOR THE LARGEST  AG DISPUTES IN HISTORY AGAINST CHINA FOR ITS  MARKET SUPPORT POLICIES AND UNFAIR  ADMINISTRATION OF QUOTAS.  IF CHINA HAD ADMINISTERED T-R-QS THEY WOUDL AHVE  IMPORTED BILLIONS MORE WE CURRENTLY HAVE 7 OFFENSIVE WTO DISPUTES FOR  U.S. AG AND 6 MORE ON RETALIATORY DUTIES ON OUR TRADING PARTNERS ON AG AND OTHER PRODUCTS. YET, QUESTIONS STILL COMING UP ABOUT THE FUTURE  OF TRADE.. MICHIGAN SENATOR DEBBIE STABENOW  ASKING  THE TRADE TEAM HOW SOON MEXICO COULD DROP ITS  TARIFFS ON U.S. AG PRODUCTS AFTER THE U.S. PUT  TARIFFS ON MEXICO'S STEEL AND ALUMINUM.  <" MANY OF OUR U.S. AG PRODUCTS INCLUDE DAIRY, APPLES AND PORK FACE SUBSTANCIAL TARIFFS IN MEXICO DUE TO STEEL AND  ALUMINUM TARIFFS. WHAT'S THE TIMELINE AND PATH FORWARD TO RESOLVE  THESE TARIFFS?   FIRST OF ALL, IT'S ADMINISTERED BY  DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND NOT USTR. STABENOW: I HOPE YOU WILL WEIGH IN THOUGH. DOUD: I APPRECIATE YOUR COMMENTS. MY  UNDERSTANDING IS THAT PART OF THE DISCUSSION IS ON A SEPERATE  TRACT AND NOT A PART OF WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON RIGHT NOW. 10 REALLY? BECAUSE IT ALL GOES TOGETHER FROM A PRODUCER STANDPOINT  AS YOU KNOW. 19"> MCKINNEY AND DOUD BOTH TOUCHING ON THE  POTENTIAL FOR AG MARKETS.  DOUD SAYING A BI-LATERAL DEAL WITH JAPAN IS STILL   A TOP PRIORITY FOR HIM.  THANKS BETSY. 

NAFTA AGREEMENT IN QUESTION
SPEAKING OF TRADE, WORK AND WAITING CONTINUES ON WHETHER WE'LL SEE A NEW NAFTA AGREEMENT.MEXICAN SECRETARY OF THE ECONOMY SAYING THIS WEEK THERE WAS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE U.S. AND CANADA REACHING A TRADE DEAL IN THE COMING DAYS. PRESIDENT TRUMP ALSO REVEALINIG PLANS TO  REBRAND THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE  AGREEMENT AS THE "USMC" PACT—FOR THE U.S.,  MEXICO AND CANADA. HE SAY'S THEY'LL DROP THE C IF CANADA AND THE U.S. DON'T REACH AN AGREEMENT.  

WASHINGTON TRADE POLICY
FARMERS WITH THE NATIONAL FARMERS UNION FALL LEGISLATIVE 'FLY-IN' SPENDING THE WEEK IN  WASHINGTON D.C. TALKING AG POLICY AND TRADE. IOWA SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY, TELLING REPORTERS HE BELIEVES A TRI-LATERAL NAFTA DEAL  WITH CANADA INCLUDED IS A BETTER APPROACH WHEN  IT COMES TO PASSING THE MEASURE IN CONGRESS.  <"WITH CANADA, I THINK THEY'RE MAKING PROGRESS. I WOULD  SUGGEST A COMPROMISE THAT CANADA DOES NOT WANT TO AGREE WITH  THE UNITED STATES ON ADMINISTRATIVE PANNELS FOR SETTLING TRADE  DISPUTES, I WOULD LET CANADA HAVE THEIR WAY ON THAT AND CANADA OUTTA GIVE US OUR WAY WITH AMERICAN DAIRY PRODUCTS."> 5:27  < I THINK MAYBE IF IT'S JUST THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO, IT  MIGHT BE MORE DIFFICULT GETTING IT THROUGH THE CONGRESS. 5:54> THE U.S. AND CANADA HAVE ROUGHLY UNTIL THE END  OF THE MONTH TO SETTLE THEIR DIFFERENCES BEFORE  THE TEXT OF THE U.S. AND MEXICO AGREEMENT IS  THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S BEIGE BOOK SHOWING SOME OF THE FED'S 12 DISTRICTS REPORTING SLOWING  GROWTH LAST MONTH...EVEN AS THE OVERALL  ECONOMY EXPANDED. THIS WEAKNESS CAME ON THE  BACK OF CONCERNS OVER TRADE. THE FED'S ST. LOUIS BANK REPORTING THAT FARMERS IN ITS REGION BELIEVE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE  SOYBEAN CROP IS YET TO BE PRICED. THE REPORT SAYS IT'S QUOTE "LEAVING FARMERS EXPOSED TO CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS."  AND THAT INCLUDES TRADE DISRUPTIONS AND TARIFF  DISPUTES. FARMER MAC ECONOMIST JACKSON TACKISH SAYS  TARIFFS HAVE A FAR REACHING IMPACT ON THE AG  ECONOMY. HE JOINED ME THURSDAY WHILE I FILLED IN ON  AGRITALK RADIO TO DISCUSS THAT AND THE LENDER'S QUARTERLY REPORT "THE FEED" <YOU CAN'T UNDERSTATE THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADE FORU.S.  AGRICULTURE ABOUT ONE IN EVERY FOUR OR FIVE HOURS DEPENDING ON  HOW YOU MEASURE IT OF FARM INCOME COMES FROM FOREIGN SOURCES.  SO WE NEED TRADE PARTNERS AND WE'VE GOT REALLY GREAT TRADE PARTNERS OUT THERE FOR US FARMERS. NOW WITH SOME OF THESE  RETALIATORY TARIFF ISSUES THAT ARE GOING ON RIGHT NOW WE HAVE SIX  MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS THAT HAVE ISSUED RETALIATORY TARIFFS AFFECTING AGRICULTURE. THOSE SIX PARTNERS REPRESENT ABOUT 53  PERCENT OF ALL EXPORTS FORU.S. AGRICULTURE SO IT'S A BIG GROUP. YOU  KNOW. 0> JACKSON TAKASCH\FARMERMAC 3:28 YOU CAN'T UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE 3:56 SO ITS A BIG GROUP YOU KNOW. TARIFF IMPACTS, PRICE SUPPORT AND FARM INCOME  ALL PART OF THE DISCUSSIONS AROUND COMPLETING A  NEW FARM BILL. CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE TELLING  THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN THE HOUSE THEY BETTER  PLAN ON BEING AT WORK NEXT WEEK. 

HURRICANE FLORENCE
WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE FLORENCE LATER  TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING STORM WORKS ITS WAY  INLAND. ALREADY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND IS WORKING ITS WAY  ACROSS THE REGION.  EVEN AS THE HURRICANE DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY,  WINDS NEARING 100 MILES PER HOUR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD  GEORGIA BEFORE CUTTING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE  WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

CROP COMMENTS
MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US THIS MORNING WITH A LOOK AT CROP COMMENTS. MIKE GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.  RYAN HEINIGER IN DES MOINES COUNTY, IOWA  STARTED UP THE COMBINE ON MONDAY.  HE SAYS YIELDS ARE BETTER THAN HE ANTICIPATED  GIVEN THE BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE HIS AREA  RECEIVED THIS SUMMER. HE SAYS HIS SECOND FIELD IS  AVERAGING 214 BUSHELS PER ACRE. USDA SAYS 73 PERCENT OF THE STATE'S CORN CROP IS  CONSIDERED GOOD TO EXCELLENT.  AND HARVEST IS MOVING ALONG IN MISSOURI.  AN AGDAY VIEWER ON TWITTER TELLING US HARVEST IS  OCCURING IN THE SHOW-ME-STATE.  USDA SAYS 12 PERCENT OF MISSOURI'S CORN CROP IS  HARVESTED - 2 POINTS ABOVE THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE.  NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE WINDSPEED FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE HURRICANE HITTING NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA FLORENCE IS GOING TO  CAUSE SOME MAJOR WINDS DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO  48 HOURS. BUT IT'S ALSO GOING TO BE BREEZY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND A LITTLE BIT WINDY IN PARTS OF THE WEST HEADING  THROUGH THE DAY OR NIGHTTIME HOURS TODAY KIND OF PICK OUT THE EYE  THERE FROM FLORENCE WITH A LITTLE BIT LESS WIND RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE  OF THE EYE. BUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW THEN THAT WIND WILL SPREAD OUT IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT IT WILL BECOME PRETTY  WINDY IN PARTS OF THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST  COMING UP IN A FEW MINUTES. BUT FIRST CHECK OF SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS. 0 

TEASE
IT'S BEEN ANOTHER BIG WEEK FOR LIVESTOCK MARKETS. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT NEXT AT THE AGRIBUSINESS  DESK. AND LATER, HELPING THE ENVIRONMENT AND FUTURE  GENERATIONS BY BEING GOOD STEWARDS OF THE  LAND. 


AEM REPORT
SALES OF U.S. TRACTORS AND COMBINES REMAIN STRONG FROM A YEAR AGO. ACCORDING TO THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT  MANUFACTURERS LATEST REPORT, SALES OF U.S. SELF- PROPELLED COMBINES RISING 24 PERCENT THROUGH  AUGUST COMPARED TO LAST YEAR AND SALES OF 4-WHEEL DRIVE TRACTORS GROWING 13 PERCENT. MACHINERY PETE SAYING USED COMBINE VALUES ARE  STRONG AS WELL. <"THE ONE AND TWO YEAR OLD ONES ARE STRONG WHEN THEY SHOW UP AT AUCTIONS. I THINK PEOPLE WANT THE WARRANTLY. THEY ARE ALSO  LOOKING AHEAD AT THE COST OF STEEL AND ALUMINUM COSTS GOING UP.  SO THEY THINK OH MY GOSH. HERE'S A ONE YEAR WARRANTLY. NOW WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, IT'S A HOT ITEM.">MACHINERY PETE SAYS HISTORICALLY, HARVEST IS  MORE OF A QUIET PERIOD TO BUY FROM AUCTIONS BUT HE'S SEEING MORE ACTION HERE IN 2018. DESPITE THE GROWTH, AEM SAYS THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR THE FUTURE INCLUDING -- A POTENTIAL  RE-WRITE OF NAFTA, TRADE WARS AND A DECLINE IN  NET FARM INCOME. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN THE MARKETS---TRADERS TRYING TO DIGEST THE LATEST DATA DUMP FROM USDA. LETS SEE WHERE THINGS STAND FROM OUR FRIENDS  ON THE FLOOR. LEAN HOGG'S ALL OVER THE PLACE. VERY VOLATILE WE'RE TRYING TO STAY  AWAY FROM DAY TRADING THE OCTOBER CONTRACT IT'S LIKE THROWN  BLINDFOLDED DARTS. HE'S JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CLARITY WE'RE LOOKING AT ESTABLISHING A LONGER TERM LONG POSITION IN THE DECEMBER AND  FEBRUARY CONTRACTS AND WE'RE USING THIS WITH A COMBINATION OF  FUTURES AND OPTIONS OPTIONS. A GREAT WAY TO GIVE YOU SOME LONG EXPOSURE WITH LIMITED RISK LEAVING YOU AT EASE AS WE GO THROUGH  THIS INTRA DAY AN ENTIRE WEEK. VOLATILITY IS NOW MOVING OVER TO THE  SOYBEAN MARKET. WE'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE FIRST  TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A LIFETIME. WE SAW YIELDS COME IN  BASICALLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. PRODUCTION CARRY OUT BASICALLY NEUTRAL SO WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT IS HOW WE STARTED THE WEEK WE  SAW AN IMMENSE AMOUNT OF PRESSURE COME IN MONDAY AND  TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATIONS WE WERE GOING TO SEE AN ULTRA  BEARISH USDA REPORT SO THAT BEARISH NEWS WAS PRICED INTO THE  MARKET. IT'S BEEN OLIVER SLOUP WITH BLUE LINE FUTURES FROM THE  FLOOR OF THE CME. 

AGRIBUSINESS
<JEFF FRENCH WITH TOP THIRD AGMARKETING OUR GUEST HERE AT  AGRIBUSINESS TODAY JEFF AS WE LOOK AT THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY. A  COUPLE OF THINGS IN PLAY RIGHT NOW ON THE PORK SIDE. IT'S THIS AFRICAN SWINE FEVER OUTBREAK OVER IN CHINA. WHAT'S YOUR READ  ON THAT RIGHT NOW. WELL WE HAVE NINE CONFIRMED CASES  THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE PROVINCES. I KNOW IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE VERY EXPLOSIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S NOT UNDER WRAPS. YOU KNOW IF THE  CHINESE HAVE TO HOLD HER HUG HER IT'S FRIENDLY. EVERY PROTEIN  THROUGHOUT THE WORLD OBVIOUSLY YOU KNOW THEIR NUMBER ONE SUPPLIER ON EXPORT BASIS IS EUROPE. BUT IF EUROPE CAN'T FILL THOSE  PORT NEEDS THEY'RE GOING TO COME TO US AND MAYBE THEY CUT A  DEAL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A TARIFF ON THE PORK THAT'S GOING OVER THERE BUT YOU KNOW THEY CAN CUT A DEAL WHERE YOU CAN  POTENTIALLY MAYBE THEY GET RID OF THAT TARIFF. SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO  SEE. BUT IT CAME AT THE RIGHT TIME. I MEAN WE HAVE ABSOLUTELY  PLENTY OF PORK PLENTY OF BEEF IN THE FREEZER RIGHT NOW THAT WE  COULD SUPPLY THEM. SO IT'S BEEN A SAVIOR. YEAH. AS WE TALK ABOUT BEEF THOSE NUMBERS ALSO LARGE FROM AN EXPORT STANDPOINT BUT  ALSO FROM DOMESTIC SUPPLIES HERE. YES. AND FOR THE AUGUST  SEPTEMBER TIMEFRAME YOU'RE LOOKING AT A RECORD AMOUNT OF  CATTLE ON FEED. BUT. DEMAND HAS BEEN ROBUST. AND REALLY I LOOK  AT IT VERY SIMPLY WHERE AMERICANS ARE BACK TO WORK. AND WHEN  AMERICANS HAVE MONEY IN THEIR POCKET THEY LIKE TO EAT STEAK RIGHT. YOU KNOW IT TASTE GOOD. YEAH. SO DEMAND HAS BEEN GOOD.  I EXPECT TO BE GOOD. BUT WE DO HAVE SOME NUMBERS TO WORK  THROUGH. YOU KNOW THERE COULD BE SOME PULLBACKS ALL ALONG THE WAY. BUT THE FOURTH QUARTER FROM THE B SIDE. IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE  BIT TIGHTER. YEAH. REAL QUICK ON THE PRICE SIDE FOR PORK. ANY  IMPACT OF PRICES AS WE MOVE THROUGH SOME OF THESE ISSUES OVER  IN CHINA. IT'S GOING TO BE HIGHER. I MEAN ESPECIALLY IF WE GET  SOME EXPORT DEMAND. OK AND IT'S YOU KNOW YOU'RE STARTING NOW TO GET SOME SPECULATIVE BUYING TO WHICH IS GOOD TO SEE. 0> 

WEATHER
<WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN AS  WE LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR AND MIKE YOU CAN SEE THAT SOME  OF THESE RECENT RAIDS ARE REALLY STARTING TO EAT AWAY AT THE DROUGHT. FROM MISSOURI TO TEXAS WE'RE REALLY SEEING THAT WHOLE  AREA SHRINK UP NICELY. NOW THERE ARE OTHER PARTS GETTING A LITTLE  BIT DRIER LIKE PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE  NORTHWEST. BUT I MEAN REALLY WHEN YOU GO BACK ONE MONTH TO  SEE WHAT THIS LOOKED LIKE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY ARE A WHOLE BUNCH MORE COLOR THERE. AND EACH WEEK WE'VE BEEN SHRINKING  UP THOSE AREAS MAKING THEM A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY WERE THE WORST  AREAS ARE FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS AND EVEN THIS LATEST ONE JUST KIND OF SEE SOME OF THAT COLOR  GOING AWAY BECAUSE OF ALL THE RAIN THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE  PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SO FLORENCE IS THE BIG DEAL ON THE MAP. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  COUNTRY TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING THINGS DRY. THIS IS A TROPICAL  LIKE SYSTEM THAT'S GOING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THAT'S GOING TO SPREAD SOME MORE RAINS FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE  NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS  NOTHING'S REALLY ABLE TO MOVE WITH FLORENCE THERE AND THAT'S BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST THREE OR FOUR DAYS. FLORENCE WILL  SLOWLY COME INLAND TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATER ON  TODAY. IT SHOULD BE INLAND. THERE ARE SOME MODELS KIND OF STILL KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE  BIT WORSE AND PROLONG THE ACTIVITY BUT IT SHOULD TRANSITION ONCE IT'S  INLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WEAKENS AND THAT WILL BE DURING  THE DAY TOMORROW. BY THE END OF TOMORROW SHOULD BE JUST AN  AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL PRODUCING A LOT OF RAIN. I MEAN WE'VE SEEN THESE AREAS THESE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS PRODUCE.  YOU KNOW A FOOT OF RAIN WAY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THAT IS  DEFINITELY STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THAT WILL CAUSE SOME SEVERE FLOODING AS WE  HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24  HOURS. NOT A LOT. BESIDES FLORENCE WHAT WE HAD IN THE NEXT 36  AND WHILE THE BLUE AREAS A FOOT OR MORE BIT THAT COULD BE DOUBLE  OR TRIPLE THAT IN SOME SPOTS. JUST KEEP THAT IN MIND. PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS IN SOUTH TEXAS AS YOU CAN SEE THERE AS WELL.  THE REST OF THE COUNTRY THERE'S NOT A LOT GOING ON ALTHOUGH SOME  THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY COMFORTABLE BUT 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE  NORTHEAST STILL KIND OF MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HOT IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO BE IN THE 50S 60S  70S ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL NOT NOT 70S IN THE  GREAT LAKES OBVIOUSLY 50S AND 60S THERE BUT THE 70S WILL BE INTO  THE SOUTHEAST ALL BECAUSE OF THE BIG RIDGE IN THE EAST. SO YOU  CAN KIND OF PICK OUT FLORENCE THERE AS WELL. FINALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE JET STREAM AS IT COMES FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE BIT  OF A COOL DOWN BEHIND IT. AND THEN WE START TO SEE THE TRANSITION  TO A TROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT  SOME LOCAL FORECASTS HEADING TO PROVO UTAH FIRST OF ALL PARTLY  SUNNY RATHER WARM HIGH OF 87 DEGREES. LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS HUMID WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE HIGH OF 90. AND NEW  HAVEN CONNECTICUT CLOUDS AND SOME SUN ON THE HUMID SIDE THE  AFTERNOON HIGH AROUND 77 DEGREES. 0> 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL TALK AGRONOMY AND THE GROWING SEASON ON FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV. AND LATER, WE'RE OFF TO THE GOLDEN STATE WHERE  THESE FARMERS ARE FINDING WAYS TO FEED THEIR  SHEEP AND HELP THE ENVIRONMENT. 

FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV
A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO AT THE FARM PROGRESS SHOW, I SAT DOWN WITH A COUPLE OF AGRONOMISTS  TO TALK ABOUT THE GROWING SEASON. IT'S TODAY'S FARM JOUNAL COLLEGE TV. <ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE SAW THIS YEAR KARL WAS WE KNOW  THESE EAR POPS AND THAT PROBABLY GOES BACK TO A PRETTY GOOD WINDOW FOR PLANNING. IS THAT WHY THESE POPULATIONS ARE SO MUCH  HIGHER. ABSOLUTELY. SO I'VE BEEN IN IN IOWA FOR THREE YEARS WITH  CHANNEL AND HANDS DOWN. THIS HAS BEEN THE BEST PLANNING CONDITIONS WE'VE PLANTED INTO BOTH FROM A CORN AND SOYBEAN  STANDPOINT. SO WE WE GOT REALLY GOOD ESTABLISHED STANDARDS. WE  DIDN'T LOSE MUCH LAST YEAR WE WERE LOSING A LOT OF POPULATIONS.  FUNGAL PATHOGENS LIKE PYTHIUM AND OTHER EARLY SEED SEASON  SEEDLING BLIGHTS. AND THIS YEAR WE JUST DIDN'T SEE THAT BECAUSE  THE SOIL CONDITIONS WERE REALLY BAD. AND YOU KNOW PROBABLY 10  DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE WHEN WE WERE PLANTED AND BRETT  THAT GETTING OFF TO A GOOD START IS THE BIG KEY HERE RIGHT. AND PROTECTING EARLY AND THEN PROTECTING LAKE. THESE ARE NOT THINGS  YOU CAN GO OUT TO YOUR FIELD AND JUST GET RID OF. I MEAN THEY'RE  GOING TO THEY'RE EITHER GOING TO BLOW IT OR THEY'RE GOING TO BE IN  THE SOIL RIGHT. DEFINITELY. SO YOU KNOW PATHOGEN PRESENCE IS A  BIG PART OF THAT TRIANGLE WE THINK ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE VERY LITTLE CONTROL OVER THE ENVIRONMENT. YOU KNOW WE CAN  TRY AND DO SOME TILLAGE ROTATION AND THINGS TO MANAGE BUT STILL  UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CEASE PRESENCE. AND SO OUR FOCUS IS REALLY ON THAT SUSCEPTIBLE HOSTS BY  BRINGING OUT PRODUCTS WITH YOU KNOW NOT ONLY TOLERANCE TO ONE  DISEASE BUT FIVE YOU GOT A WHOLE PORTFOLIO THERE REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE CONDITIONS ARE PATHOGEN LOAD BABY. >

TEASE
A FARM CAN DO MORE THAN JUST PROVIDE NUTRITIOUS FOOD. IT CAN ALSO HELP SCRUB THE ENVIRONMENT. WE'LL MEET A CALIFORNIA FAMILY DOING JUST THAT  NEXT. 

IN THE COUNTRY
IN CALIFORNIA, THE GOVERNOR THIS WEEK, SIGNING A  LAW THAT MOVES THE STATE ENTIRELY AWAY FROM  FOSSIL FUELS FOR ELECTRICITY--HOPING TO UTILIZE  100 PERCENT RENEWABLE ENERGY...WITH A GOAL OF ZERO CARBON EMISSIONS. BUT FOR THE CARBON THAT IS IN THE ATMOSPHERE--  UC DAVIS SHOWS US HOW LOCAL FARMERS ARE DOING  THEIR PART. <I LOVE THIS PART. THIS IS LIKE MAKE THE RIGHT. I COULD LITERALLY SIT  OUT HERE AND WATCH THEM EAT LIKE FOR HOURS. THEIR FAVORITE  BECAUSE OF HOW YOU MANAGE THEM AND HOW THEY IMPACT THE  LAND AND. ARE NOT QUITE AS HARD ON AS PIGS ARE AND THE CHICKENS  ARE. PAID. HERE'S WHERE WE JUST MOVED FROM NORWAY OVER THERE  TO WHERE THE SHEEP ARE AND THEN OVER THERE AS WE'RE ABOUT TO GO. WE STARTED OUT OVER HERE. SO IT'S ALREADY COME BACK. WE  COULD EAT WHEN WE'RE FINISHED. WE COULD EVEN COME BACK AGAIN  AND GRACE ANOTHER TIME THROUGH WITH THE SHEEP WHEN WE MOVE  HIM AROUND THERE IN KIND OF A SMALL AREA. THEY'RE EATING DOWN ON  THE GRASS. WE TAKE THEM OFF OF THAT AREA AND MOVE THEM TO THE  NEXT AREA. AND THOSE PLANTS REGENERATE AND SO THOSE NUTRIENTS THAT CAME FROM THE ANIMAL ARE WERE READILY AVAILABLE NOT ONLY  FROM PLANTS BUT ALSO FOR ALL THE SOIL MICROBES AND SO THAT JUST KIND  OF CREATES MORE ACTIVITY AND IN THEORY MORE CARBON SEQUESTRATION. > 

CLOSE
AND THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FROM ALL OF US WITH AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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