AgDay Daily Recap - September 7, 2018

September 7, 2018 12:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
SEPTEMBER 7, 2018

HEADLINES

MORE TRADE UNCERTAINTY AS FARMER LEADERS MEET WITH TOP BRASS AT THE  WHITE HOUSE. FRESH RED MEAT EXPORT NUMBERS ARE OUT. IN AGRIBUSINESS..THE PRICE POTENTIAL OF WHEAT. SELLING HARD IN COMMITTEE--WHY DID THIS CONGRESSMAN GO FULL  AUCTIONEER? AND DISEASE PRESSURE FROM AN AGRONOMIST PERSPECTIVE. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO. 

MORE CHINESE TARIFFS?
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS THE ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERS ANOTHER 200 BILLION DOLLARS IN TARIFFS  AGAINST CHINESE GOODS, THE TRADE DEFICIT CONTINUES TO WIDEN AT NEARLY  37 BILLION DOLLARS IN JULY. A NEW RECORD. FOLLOWING THE END OF A PUBLIC COMMENT PERIOD THE ADMINISTRATION IS  CONSIDERING FRESH TARIFFS, TO WHICH CHINA SAYS IF THE U.S. ADOPTS NEW  TARIFFS, CHINA WILL BE FORCED TO ROLL OUT NECESSARY RETALIATORY  MEASURES. ANALYSTS SAY THEY ANTICIPATE CHINA COULD DEVALUE IT'S CURRENCY, OR  EVEN CRACK DOWN ON U.S. FIRMS INSIDE THE COUNTRY. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING WEDNESDAY THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE ON GOING BUT  THEY ARE NOT PREPARED TO MAKE THE DEAL CHINA WOULD LIKE TO MAKE. STATE FARM BUREAU PRESIDENTS SPOKE DIRECTLY WITH THE PRESIDENT AND  MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION ON WEDNESDAY. THE GROUP FOCUSING ON THE CHALLENGES FACING AGRICULTURE AND  CONTINUED CONCERNS AROUND TRADE. "IT REALLY ENCOURAGED THE ADMINISTRATION KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK GET THE TRADE AGREEMENTS  DONE WITH MAC. THEY'VE DONE THAT WITH MEXICO WORK ON CANADA THE EU GET A BILATERAL WITH  JAPAN KNOWING THAT CHINA IS GOING TO BE DOWN THE ROAD HOPEFULLY SOONER THAN LATER THAT WE CAN GET SOMETHING DONE.""WE KNOW THAT THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE BUT WITH THE MEXICO DEAL PRETTY MUCH DONE. WE  GOT ASSURANCES TODAY THAT THEY BELIEVE CANADA WILL WILL BE IN LINE RIGHT ALONG WITH MEXICO. SO  WITH THAT WITH THAT BEING SAID YOU KNOW THEY EVEN MENTIONED THE EUROPEAN UNION JAPAN AND POSSIBLY POSSIBLY EVEN CHINA IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE. SO I FEEL MORE POSITIVE.""INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS AN ONGOING PROCESS. WE NEVER REACH OUR GOAL WHERE WE WANT TO GO  WITH THAT. WE TALKED ABOUT BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AS WELL AND TRYING TO FIND NEW MARKETS  FOR OUR PRODUCTS. AND THAT'S JUST AN ONGOING PROCESS ALL THE TIME."THE MEETING LASTED NEARLY AN HOUR.  PRESIDENT TRUMP'S APPEARANCE WAS UNSCHEDULED, BUT SAID HE WANTED  TO STOP BY TO EXPRESS HIS APPRECIATION FOR AGRICULTURE, AS WELL AS HIS  BROAD SUPPORT FOR RURAL AMERICA.  CHINA SAYS IT'S PREPARING TO MEET MORE OF ITS OWN SOYBEAN NEEDS. THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE SOYBEAN ASSOCIATION SAYING THERE WILL BE NO  SHORTAGES IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR AND IT PLANS TO GROW 30 MILLION METRIC TONS OF BEANS BY THE YEAR 2020. THAT WOULD REQUIRE DOUBLING THEIR CROP IN 2 YEARS. ANALYSTS SAY PRESSURE IS BUILDING AS CHINESE INFLATION HIT A FOUR  MONTH HIGH IN JULY.

USMEF JULY NUMBERS
ALSO ON THE TRADE FRONT, THE US MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION RELEASING IT'S  LATEST NUMBERS THURSDAY. LOOKING AT JULY, EXPORTS OF U.S. PORK AND BEEF BOTH HIGHER THAN A YEAR  AGO...ALTHOUGH SOME VALUES SUFFERED DUE TO TRADE TARIFFS. PORK EXPORTS TOPPING 176-THOUSAND METRIC TONS (176,413). THAT'S UP ONE  AND A HALF PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO WORTH ROUGHLY 465 MILLION  DOLLARS. THAT VALUE IS ABOUT 5 PERCENT LOWER YEAR OVER YEAR. PORK EXPORTS FOR THE YEAR ARE STILL PACING AHEAD OF LAST YEAR'S RECORD. THE BIGGEST DRAG ON SALES REMAIN DUTIES FOR MEXICO AND CHINA.  THAT PUSHED PRICES DOWN 25 PERCENT IN MEXICO AND 19 PERCENT IN CHINA. WITH VOLUMES TO CHINA DROPPING MORE THAN 30 PERCENT IN JULY YEAR  OVER YEAR. BEEF EXPORTS POSTING ANOTHER NEAR-RECORD MONTH LED BY SALES TO  SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN. JULY BEEF EXPORTS CLIMBING 12 PERCENT IN VOLUME TO 116-THOUSAND  (116,575) METRIC TONS WORTH 722 MILLION DOLLARS. FOR THE YEAR, BEEF EXPORTS REMAIN ON RECORD PACE. ON THE PORK FRONT, NEARBY LEAN HOG FUTURES SURGING THURSDAY ON  FRESH REPORTS OUT OF CHINA. 

AFRICAN SWINE FEVER IN CHINA
OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO REPORT NEW CASES OF AFRICAN SWINE FEVER. TENS OF THOUSANDS OF HOGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULLED IN AN EFFORT  STOP THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS. THE UNITED NATION'S FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO  RELEASE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HANDLING PIGS AND PIG RELATED PRODUCTS  FROM CHINA....GLOBAL BANS MAY INCREASE IN AN EFFORT TO STEM THE SPREAD. CHINA'S AG MINISTRY ANNOUNCING IT IS CLOSING LIVE HOG MARKETS IN   AFFECTED PROVINCES AND IMPOSED A BAN ON TRANSPORTING PIGS AND PORK  PRODUCTS FROM THOSE AREAS.  IN THE U.S. THE NATIONAL PORK BOARD IS FOCUSING ON FEED INGREDIENTS-- A  KEY AREA WITH POTENTIALLY A HIGH RISK OF DISEASE TRANSPORT.  

POSSIBLE NAFTA AGREEMENT
BACK TO TRADE, THE U.S. AND CANADA CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD A NAFTA  AGREEMENT. PRESIDENT TRUMP TELLING REPORTERS HE DOESN'T EXPECT NEGOTIATIONS GO  PAST TODAY. CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU INDICATING DURING THE WEEK,  THEY'RE WILLING TO DEAL ON DAIRY IF THE COUNTRY IS ABLE TO SECURE OTHER CONCESSIONS DURING NEGOTIATIONS. AMONG THOSE ISSUES ARE PERMANENT EXEMPTIONS FOR STEEL AND ALUMINUM  AND AUTO TARIFFS.  AG SECREATRY SONNY PERDUE SAYS IT'S NOT ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY" FOR CANADA TO  REMAIN PART OF NAFTA...ALTHOUGH HE'S OPTIMISTIC. 

FARM BILL
MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE-SENATE FARM BILL CONFERENCE COMMITTEE HAVE  STARTED TO HASH-OUT THE NEXT FARM POLICY. LEADERSHIP WAS STILL WAITING  FOR THE SCORE SHEET FROM THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE. DESPITE HOPES TO FINISH THE NEW BILL BEFORE THE CURRENT MEASURES EXPIRES AT THE END OF THE MONTH, THERE'S CONCERN OVER THE FOOD STAMP  TITLE.  THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL INCLUDES MANDATORY WORK  REQUIREMENTS FOR RECIPIENTS OF "SNAP".   THE SENATE VERSION DOES NOT. 

RACING THE WEATHER
FARMERS WITH HARVEST-READY CROPS IN THE SOUTH WERE WORKING  OVERTIME TO BRING IN SOME CROPS PRIOR TO  TROPICAL DEPRSSION GORDON DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY RAINS  AND HIGH WINDS. THE STORM IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SATURDAY. FOR ARKANSAS FARMER JOHN CARROLL HIS FIRST ATTENTION WAS RICE, THEN  CORN. "IF THIS CROP GOES DOWN IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 30 PERCENT. TIME TO PICK IT UP OFF THE GROUND. THE LAST IS DIFFERENT THEN BACK TO THE TIME IT WAS LAST YEAR DUE TO A SPIRALING BUT SPIRAL WAIT UNTIL  THE MACHINE."CARROLL ALSO HAS SOYBEANS IN THE FIELD WHICH WERE NOT READY FOR  HARVEST. 

CROP COMMENTS
FROM TROPICAL WEATHER TO SOMETHING A BIT CHILLER. MIKE HOFFMAN TELLS ABOUT AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF AUTUMN. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. AUTUMN RETURNS IN TWO WEEKS OFFICIALLY, BUT IT GOT AN EARLY START IN MINNESOTA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS TEMPERATURES PLUNGED BELOW THE  FREEZING MARK IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS EARLY YESTERDAY. IT WAS 28 DEGREES  IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS, BREAKING THE SEPTEMBER 6TH RECORD OF 31 DEGREES. IN ST. LOUIS COUNTY, MINNESOTA - WHICH IS DUE NORTH OF DULUTH - IT GOT  DOWN TO 24 DEGREES. OF COURSE THOSE AREAS ARE OUTSIDE THE PRIMARY CORN GROWING REGION OF THE STATE. OWATONNA MINNESOTA - IN SOUTHERN STEELE COUNTY - ONLY GOT DOWN TO  ABOUT 50 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE FIRST FROST DATE IN OWATONNA IS SEPTEMBER 28TH. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WIND SPEED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT BREEZY TODAY ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AS  WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN THINGS WIND DOWN A LITTLE BIT BUT THEN IT DOES BECOME WINDY OR  TOMORROW AS WE LOOK AT THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN. WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP BUT FIRST HERE ARE  SOME HOMETOWN. TEMPS.  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHEAT MARKETS AND  SOME OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICS IMPACTING PRICES. AND LATER, WE'LL TALK WITH AGRONOMISTS AT THE FARM PROGRESS SHOW  ABOUT DISEASE AND WEATHER PRESSURE ON CROPS THIS SEASON. 

FLOOR OF THE CME
IN AGRIBUSINESS A MILD BUT MIXED DAY FOR MARKETS. LETS GET DETAILS FORM  THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. WE'RE LOOKING AT THE GRAIN MARKET. IT'S BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET SESSION HERE LOOKING AT CORN  SPECIFICALLY KIND OF TREADING WATER NEAR THE UNCHANGED MARK AND REALLY RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF  A TECHNICAL RANGE AND AS FAR AS THE RESISTANCE LEVEL GOES THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT 370 IS GOING  TO BE A VERY BIG LINE IN THE SAND TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. NOW ON A LONGER TERM BASIS I DO BELIEVE THAT CORN HAS A PRETTY GOOD FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO FACE  HEADWINDS FROM A LOT OF BEARISH NEWS AND THE SOYBEANS AND WHEAT MARKETS ARE LOOKING AT  SOYBEANS. WE'VE FAILED TO GET OUT ABOVE SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE 850 TO 853 THAT PUT THE PRESSURE BACK ON THE MARKET AND REALLY RIGHT NOW KIND OF TRADING IN THE MIDDLE OF NO MAN'S  LAND BETWEEN CONTRACT LOWS AND THAT 850 LEVEL RIDER ABOUT 838. SO IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY  QUIET SESSION HERE IN THE LIVE CATTLE AND FEEDER CATTLE THERE HAS NOT BEEN A WHOLE LOT OF NEW  DEVELOPMENTS ON THE CASH SIDE OF THINGS. WHO WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT COME IN SEDITA POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER LAST WEEK GLEEN HODGES WHERE ALL THE ATTENTION HAS BEEN.  TODAY WE'VE GOT OCTOBER FRONT MONTH FUTURES TRADING AT LIMIT UP WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT SURPRISING I  WOULD'VE THOUGHT THAT THE FIRMS WOULD PLAY A LITTLE BIT OF CATCH UP BUT THEY'RE LAGGING BUT WE  STILL LIKE THE KURDS ON A LONGER TERM PICTURE ESPECIALLY IF THE SWINE FLU CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT  IN CHINA. THIS HAS BEEN OLIVER SLOUPE WITH BLUE LINE FUTURES FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME. 

AGRIBUSINESS
ALAN BRUGLER OUR GUEST HERE IN ANALYSIS TODAY AS WE LOOK AT THIS WHEAT MARKET IT FEELS LIKE  IT'S BEEN KIND OF A HEAVY LID ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN COURT IN SOME OF OUR OTHER GRADES ARE  GOING TO SEE ANY MOVEMENT IN THE WHEAT MARKET. YEAH I THINK WE WILL. THE PROBLEM IS OF COURSE WE'RE COMING OFF A RECORD GLOBAL SUPPLIES. YOU'VE HAD MASSIVE EXPORTS FROM RUSSIA  AND OTHERS BUT RUSSIA'S CROP IS DOWN THIS YEAR AS IS THE EU. SO YOU'LL START TO SEE THOSE  WORLD STOCKS RIGHT NOW. IN FACT OWN STOCKS USAGE RATIO PATIENCE IT'S GOING TO BE EXTREMELY TIGHT BY NEXT SUMMER. THE GUESSING GAME IS WHEN WILL RUSSIA START TO LIMIT THEIR EXPORTS.  WHEN WILL THE EU BOT BUTTON THERE'S UP OR MAYBE BY US. SOU.S. EXPORTS ARE PRETTY POOR RIGHT  NOW BUT WE THINK THEY'LL IMPROVE AS THOSE WORLD STOCKS GET A LITTLE TIGHTER. PROBABLY NO. JAN  SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR IN CORN IN THAT REGARD. OKAY. AND DO YOU EXPECT THAT TO START  TO LIFT OUR PRICES AT SOME POINT. YEAH. YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WE'RE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WE  WERE A YEAR AGO. WHEAT HAS A DOLLAR 84 AVERAGE ANNUAL TRADING RANGE DOLLERY FOR A BUSHEL.  SURE WE WERE PROBABLY WITHIN 30 OR 40 CENTS OF THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE EARLIER IN THE YEAR  HERE. SO THERE IS SOME ROOM TO THE DOWNSIDE AND YOU'LL FIND THAT BOTTOM. BUT AGAIN WE THINK ULTIMATELY HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS IS THE PATTERN HERE. ALL RIGHT WILL BE SOME TO WATCH  APPRECIATE IT SO MUCH WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE IN JUST A MINUTE. 

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. METEOROLOGIST MIKE HUFF AND MIKE AS WE LOOK AT THE DROUGHT  MONITOR WE CAN SEE WE'RE SLOWLY STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE EDGES HERE. YEAH I THINK WE'RE  KIND OF EATING AWAY AT IT. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. FROM MISSOURI ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNING AREAS AS WELL. OREGON BEING ONE OF THEM. MOST OF THAT STATE HAS  GOTTEN WORSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. NORTHERN PLAINS TRYING TO GET DRY IN SPOTS AGAIN AND  PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. BUT LET'S GO BACK A MONTH. YOU CAN SEE THERE WAS A LOT MORE RED AND ORANGE AND EVEN THE YELLOW AREA WHICH IS JUST KIND OF DRY AND NOT QUITE OFFICIALLY INTO A  DROUGHT IN THOSE AREAS. BUT AS YOU CAN SEE HOW THINGS HAVE JUST GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT LESS. IT'S A  SLOW PROCESS TYPICALLY AND I WILL SAY THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE'RE GOING TO SEE A WHOLE  BUNCH OF RAIN IN ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  UNFORTUNATELY OUR MODELS SHOWING IT ALL STAYING SOUTH OF THE DROUGHT AREAS NORTHEAST KANSAS  AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. THERE'S THE MAP AND THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF GORDON RIGHT  HERE YOU CAN SEE THAT IS GOING TO JUST BARELY MOVE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THAT. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A HUGE AREA GETTING RAIN AT ANY ONE TIME  BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE CAN PUT IT DOWN IN THE BUCKET LOADS. NO DOUBT AND SOME OF THAT  MOISTURE IS GOING TO START TO FLOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT  INTO TOMORROW MORNING. YOU CAN SEE HOW WE'RE GOING TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SPREAD THAT MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND  OTHER PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON IT'S  GOING TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THAT STATIONARY FRONT. WE ALSO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST AND HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AS THEY TYPICALLY DON'T. ONCE THEY GET  INTO THE MOUNTAINS. BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SO THERE'S A  PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE PAST 24 HOURS ADDING IN THE NEXT 36 WELL YOU CAN SEE SOME AREAS OF TEXAS. I WANT TO POINT THAT OUT FIRST BECAUSE YOU COULD STILL USE THE RAIN GETTING SOME DECENT  RAIN. SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THERE'S THE REMNANTS OF GORDON AND YOU CAN JUST KIND OF PICK IT OUT  THERE. THERE IS A SMALL POCKET THERE WHERE OUR COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING A FOOT OF RAIN  IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GREAT LAKES  AND NORTHEAST STILL KIND OF WARM AND MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERIOR STATES STILL 70S THOUGH FROM  MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD. AND IT'S STILL KIND OF MUGGY DOWN SOUTH BUT THOSE ARE COOL NUMBERS FOR  THIS TIME OF THE YEAR LOTS OF 60S SHOWING UP ACROSS THE CORN BELT FOR AFTERNOON HOUR TOMORROW. THERE'S THE JET STREAM AND YOU CAN SEE WE DON'T HAVE ANY MAJOR TROUGHS OR RIDGES  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE'LL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR  THE EAST COAST BY THE WAY LATER NEXT WEEK. BUT YOU CAN SEE A BIG RIDGE OTHERWISE POPPING BACK UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT  SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR GILLETTE WYOMING PORTLAND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGH OF  86 DEGREES. TAKING A LOOK AT ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. MUGGY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORM AROUND.  HIGH 91. AND FINALLY ROCHESTER NEW YORK. COMFORTABLE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH OF 75. 

KAVANAUGH HEARING
AS RAUCOUS AS THINGS GET IN THE CONFIRMATION HEARING FOR SUPREME  COURT NOMINEE BRETT KAVANAUGH...YOU MIGHT SAY  THINGS ARE NEARLY AS CANTANKEROUS OR CONTENTIOUS ON THE OTHER SIDE  OF THE CAPITOL. A PROTESTOR EXPRESSED HER DISPLEASURE OF TWITTER CEO JACK DORSEY  WHO WAS TESTIFYING AT A HOUSE COMMITTEE HEARING. DESPITE EFFORTS TO RE-GAIN CONTROL OF THE HEARING, THINGS REALLY  TOOK-OFF WHEN MISSOURI CONGRESSMAN BILLY LONG STEPPED-IN WITH HIS  UNIQUE STYLE OF "ORDER". LONG IS A LONG-TIME AUCTIONEER IN HIS HOMESTATE. MOST OF THE FOLKS IN  THE HEARING ROOM SEEMED TO ENJOY LONG'S CROWD CONTROL. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK - FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE T-V. WE LOOK AT THE LACK OF  WIDESPREAD DISEASE PRESSURE THIS GROWING SEASON. AND I'LL HAVE SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT HEADING INTO HARVEST SEASON. 

FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV
WHILE ON THE PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR TWO WEEKS AGO,  AGRONOMISTS AND CROP SCOUTS WERE SURPRISED BY HOW LITTLE DISEASE  PRESSURE THEY FOUND THIS SEASON ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THAT'S NOT TO  SAY ALL FIELDS WERE CLEAN, BUT THE CASES WERE LIMITED. WE TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE T-V. WHAT WE SAW FROM A DISEASE STANDPOINT REALLY MOVE IN WITH SOME OF THOSE WARM AND HUMID  CONDITIONS WAS GREAT LEAF SPOT PREDOMINANTLY. SO IT MOVED IN PRETTY EARLY AND IN A BIG CHUNK  OF THE STATE. BUT THEN AGAIN WE KIND OF FLIPPED A SWITCH MOTHER NATURE THREW ANOTHER WRENCH  IN THERE. WE DRIED OUT AND A LOT OF AREAS TEMPERATURES MODERATED AND THE GRAY LEAF SPOT LUCKILY SLOWED DOWN AND HAD A LOT OF AREAS. BUT AS OF LATE AGAIN WE'VE WE HAVE HAD HIGH  HUMIDITY IS PRETTY PRETTY HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN AND WE'RE SEEING THAT GREENLEAF'S BOXCAR  TAKE OFF SOME MORE AS OF JUST THE LAST WEEK OR SO WHAT'S WHAT'S REALLY ON MY MIND AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING OUT THERE IS THE PROGRESSION OF STOCK CANNIBALIZATION. RIGHT YOU KNOW SPECIALLY  DUE TO WHERE WE SAW EXCESSIVE MOISTURE YOU KNOW IN THE DES MOINES METRO AREA WE HAD  10 12 INCHES OF RAIN COME IN A PERIOD OF OF 24 HOURS. OH RIGHT ABOUT A MONTH AGO. AND YOU'RE  STARTING TO SEE NOW A LOT OF THOSE YELLOW SPOTS IN CORNFIELDS SHOWING UP. WHERE WE EITHER LAST  NIGHT DUE TO LEGIAN OR DUE TO THE NATURE OF OCCASION. AND WHAT WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW IS CANNIBALISATION WHERE THAT CROP IS STRESS DUE TO LACK OF NITROGEN IN THOSE AREAS. YEAH  DEFINITELY. YOU KNOW THE VARIABLES AND ENVIRONMENT RAINFALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE  SEASON ACROSS THE U.S. EVERY YEAR TO YEAR IS PRETTY WILD TO BE HONEST SO YOU KNOW PRODUCT SELECTION CAN HELP A LOT WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THOSE STRESSORS ESPECIALLY DISEASE. THIS YEAR IS  NO DIFFERENT RIGHT. SOME OF THE DISEASES WE EXPECT TO SEE MAYBE WE DIDN'T SEE AS MUCH OF  WE SAW A LOT OF JEALOUS SOUTHERN RUST WAS LATE COMING IN RIGHT. PROBABLY NOT A HUGE YIELD  THIS YEAR BUT LAST YEAR IT CAME IN A LOT EARLIER AND WAS MORE PROBLEMATIC. SO YOU KNOW IT'S IT'S  PROBABLY WEIGHING A LOT OF PEOPLE'S MINDS ARE MAKING HARVEST PLANS HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. WHAT THEY NEED TO GO GET TO PROTECT FROM FROM STOCK LODGING AND LOSING  THOSE YEARS ONTO THE GROUND. 

TEAS
HARVEST SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR SOME IN THE SOUTH. BUT THE MIDWEST HAS  YET TO START. NEXT - I'LL HAVE SOME THOUGHTS ON THE PLEASURE  OF HARVEST SEASON. 

IN THE COUNTRY
WELL I KNOW HARVEST HAS BEEN ROLLING FOR SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY  SINCE MAY--THOSE WHEAT GROWERS OF COURSE-- BUT FOR EVERYONE ELSE IN  THE MIDDLE, COMBINES ARE POPPING UP IN FIELDS ALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  I'LL BE HONEST, IT'S ONE OF MY FAVORITE TIMES OF YEAR. WE TALK FOR MONTHS ABOUT THE WEATHER, EXPECTATIONS, ACREAGE BATTLES  AND CROP SIZE....BUT NOW IS WHERE THE TIRES MEET SOIL. IT'S THE TAPE MEASURE FOR AMERICAN AGRICULTURE'S PRODUCTIVITY. ITS HARVEST SEASON.   AND WHILE I KNOW THE STRUGGLES WITH DROUGHT HAVE BEEN REAL, IN DIFFERENT POCKETS, OVERALL, THIS SEASON LOOKS DECENT. MAYBE THAT'S WHY IN CONVERSATIONS ON CROP TOUR, FARM PROGRESS SHOW  AND THIS WEEK IN KENTUCKY, FARMERS SEEM OPTIMISTIC. SURE THERE ARE PLENTY OF WORRIES, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TRADE, GRAINS  PRICES AND FINANCES...BUT HARVESTING JUST A FEW MORE BUSHELS THAN EXPECTED CAN MAKE THE BITTER TASTE JUST A LITTLE SWEET. LIKE IN BASEBALL, WHO DOESN'T LIKE HITTING A TRIPLE INSTEAD OF A SINGLE.  BOTH COUNT AS HITS ON YOUR AVERAGE BUT THAT TRIPLE IS SO MUCH MORE  FUN.  I HAD TWO GREAT QUOTES FROM FARMERS THIS WEEK-- ONE FROM A DARREN  LUTTRELL IN DUNDEE KENTUCKY-- HIS FATHER ALWAYS SAID--THERE'S NO  PERFUME SWEETER THAN THE SMELL OF FRESHLY TILLED SOIL IN APRIL. AND MIKE KOCHENHOUR ALSO OF KENTUCKY SAYS FARMING IS LIKE GOLF. YOU  MAY PLAY BUT YOU'LL NEVER WIN. A GOLFER WILL NEVER SHOOT AN 18 -- LIKE FARMING, IT'S ABOUT ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS AND ALWAYS STRIVING TO  IMPROVE. THIS YEAR, AS THAT AUGER STRETCHES OUT TO FILL A PERFECTLY PACED GRAIN  CART--I HOPE DESPITE ALL OF LIFE'S CHALLENGES, YOU CAN TAKE A MOMENT TO ENJOY THE FRUITS OF YOUR LABOR. AND WHETHER YIELDS ARE STRIKEOUTS OR  TRIPLES MAY THE SATISFACTION OF THIS MOMENT BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE YOU  TOWARD NEXT SEASON'S PURSUITS. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF US AT AGDAY I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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