Terry Linn from The Linn Group today chronicled recent happenings in global soybean trade, including the amazing run in crush margins that turned into a record crush pace in March. “Crush margins got as strong as $1.70 and are still in the 60 cent to 70 cent range… which is still very strong,” Linn told AgriTalk After the Bell Host Chip Flory. Asked if there was “room to the upside” on USDA’s current soybean crush estimate of 1.97 billion bushels, Linn explained the capacity to crush soybeans could be a limiting factor. However, he added that the current pace suggests crush could be as high as 2.05 billion bushels in the 2017-18 marketing.
“That’s 80 million bushels more than what USDA has plugged in for crush… that’s enough to make a difference in the price outlook,” said Linn. He also cautioned, however, that even if crush does hit that level, dropping 2017-18 bean carryover to 470 million bushels, “That’s still a comfortable supply of beans.”