AgriTalk After The Bell: “Stay Exposed to Price Risk on Corn.”

April 19, 2018 04:29 PM

This short-term marketing strategy has been most popular among analysts on recent AgriTalk After the Bell hosted by Chip Flory. On Thursday’s ATB, John Payne from Daniels Trading also favors “doing nothing” on old-crop corn and soybeans, explaining the markets are entering into a time period with increased uncertainty. U.S. corn planted acres, impacts of this spring’s weather on corn yield potential and the development of the Brazilian corn crop (which Payne says “looks good” in northern areas, but the weather pattern has turned dry in southern Brazil) are all sources of uncertainty that should bring an end to the short-term narrowing of daily trading ranges. As the market begins to factor in these uncertainties, volatility should increase to improve marketing opportunities for corn, soybeans and cotton later this spring and early summer.

Doing nothing on marketings must be a decision, not a default. And doing nothing is only a short-term strategy. But Payne says now is a good time to “stay exposed to price risk on corn.”

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Spell Check

Palo Alto, CA
4/19/2018 07:12 PM

  How can you say do nothing is a strategy? Even in the short term. If you can lock in a profit in these tough times a person should look to do so. Not doing so is speculating with your inventory and 2018 crop (could just as well speculate on the board outright). Way too many farmers claim this is the their intended strategy as a way of explaining inaction on their part to their banker.


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