AgriTalk After The Bell: What are the odds?

May 17, 2018 08:33 PM

Thursday on AgriTalk After the Bell with Chip Flory, Bryan Doherty from Stewart-Peterson detailed some of the research he and others in his group use as a “pricing guideline.”

The bottom line is Doherty looks at 25 years of price history for corn and soybeans, evaluate the average “low-to-high” price moves, then he uses the average percentage move to determine, “on average,” the odds of reaching a price level above the market. For example, in the current marketing year, the research suggests a 59% probability of December 2018 corn futures reaching $4.50 this year.

Doherty details other potential price moves, and how he works with growers to determine how aggressive growers should be with downside price coverage, on today’s ATB.

Doherty says, “This research gives you a starting point in your analysis, then, of course, you can add the fundamental analysis. But most importantly, the research takes some of the emotion out of a marketing plan and gives a statistical starting point for a marketing plan. That’s never a bad idea.”

Click on the player for the entire Agritalk After The Bell conversation

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