AgriTalk ATB: Will The Grain Flows Change?

July 9, 2018 03:45 PM
Arlan Suderman, chief global commodities economist of International FC Stone, talks how the flow of soybeans could move through Gulf ports.

If Chinese tariffs remain on U.S. soybeans for the next few months, we could see the flow of soybeans shift to more movement through the Gulf ports, rather than sharing load with PNW ports, said Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at INTL FCStone. Arlan was Chip Flory’s guest analyst on Monday’s AgriTalk After the Bell.

“But that’s only if the tariffs remain in place for a few months,” stressed Suderman. “And the reason the focus would shift to the Gulf is because of increased demand for U.S. beans from outside of China. European buyers won’t want to miss the big discount for U.S. beans compared to Brazilian supplies.”

Suderman also told Flory that he feels the corn market is trading at a price that reflects a national average corn yield of 182 bu. To 183 bu. per acre. And while that may be a bit aggressive, Suderman said yield models based on crop conditions and weather patterns would probably be generating an average corn yield estimate of about 179 bu. per acre at this time.

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