AgWeb Survey Correctly Predicts USDA's Corn Estimate

August 10, 2012 06:20 AM

AgWeb users were close to predicting USDA's corn yield estimate

Most of the nearly 3,000 respondents to an AgWeb poll conducted over the last week predicted that the USDA's estimate for 2012 corn yields would be in the mid-120s. The USDA estimated today that average yields would be 123.4 bu. per acre, the lowest yield since 1995/1996.

A full 49% of our survey respondents predicted that the USDA's forecast would be in the 120s. Twenty-four percent estimated the USDA number would be 130 or more, which was the audience consensus at our recent Corn College event in Coldwater, Mich. A larger percentage, 29%, said the USDA number would be below 120.

Click here to see the complete poll results.

In the AgWeb poll, the most bullish forecasts came from Colorado, Montana, and several New England states. The most bearish forecasts emanated from Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.

Commodities markets may have anticipated an even worse estimate from the USDA. Some private analysts had forecasted a number below 120 bushels per acre. Corn future prices for September and December delivery, which ran up in this week, were down slightly on Friday morning following the announcement.

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