Ahead of the Open -- August 9, 2013

August 9, 2013 03:15 AM
 

Corn futures are called 1 to 2 cents lower in lackluster trade.

  • Corn futures didn't stray too far from unchanged in overnight trade, but were choppy and ended under light pressure.
  • If soybeans can extend overnight gains in early daytime trade, it could spill over into the corn pit.
  • Meanwhile, the National Weather Service forecast for August 14-18 calls for below-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with a mix of precip. Wetter conditions are expected to be seen in the western Belt and normal to below-normal precip is expected in the eastern Belt.
  • Traders still view weather as non-threatening, especially due to the hope drier areas of the western Belt will receive some near-term relief.
  • Traders' focus will also be on evening positions ahead of Monday's first survey-based crop estimate. According to pre-report average trade guesses, traders expect the crop to come in near 14.005 billion bushels.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 5 to 10 cents higher in corrective trade.

  • Soybean futures saw followthrough buying in overnight trade. Traders are responding to the pickup in demand.
  • Traders still have yesterday's stronger-than-expected weekly sales data on their minds, as it suggests prices are at levels that have increased demand.
  • The non-threatening forecast remains a limiting factor for market bulls, as below-normal temps across the Corn Belt are limiting moisture stress.
  • The NWS forecast for August 14-18 calls for above-normal precip for drier areas of the western Belt and normal to below-normal precip for the eastern Belt.
  • Traders will also be focused on evening positions ahead of the weekend and ahead of Monday's first survey-based crop estimate.
  • According to pre-report trade guesses, traders look for USDA to peg the soybean crop around 3.336 billion bushels.
  • News that China's consumer price index (CPI) stabilized in July at 2.7% above year-ago -- slightly lower than the 2.8% rise that was expected -- is encouraging as it signals China's economy is stabilizing.

 

Wheat futures are called to open 1 to 3 cents higher on short-covering.

  • All wheat flavors enjoyed light short-covering in overnight trade. Key this morning will be if traders see the need to continue covering short positions ahead of the weekend.
  • Wheat is also seeing spillover from soybeans this morning. But they also need the help from the corn market to gain upward momentum.
  • Traders remain concerned that U.S. wheat has lost its competitive edge, especially with harvest ongoing in Europe.
  • Traders will also be focused on evening positions ahead of Monday's key USDA reports.
  • Traders look for the report to show the all wheat crop near 2.106 billion bushels.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open steady to weaker on profit-taking.

  • Live cattle futures surged yesterday on news that Tyson Fresh Meats has notified its suppliers of plans to no long accept cattle fed with Zilmax (beta-agonist) beginning Sept. 6.
  • But futures ended off session highs, signaling the potential of profit-taking this morning.
  • Also, the market will digest news Cargill says it has no plans to alter its cattle procurement practices.
  • Traders are still waiting on cash cattle trade to begin and if futures are able to avoid sharp price pressure, $1 to $2 higher cash trade is still possible.
  • Meanwhile, the boxed beef market remains lackluster. Choice values were 35 cents weaker yesterday and Select rose 38 cents on 190 loads changing hands.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open steady to weaker on concerns about the pork market.

  • Pork cutout values slipped $1.03 yesterday, raising concerns the market has posted a secondary top.
  • Because of weaker pork values, packer demand for cash supplies has softened. Bids are expected to be mostly steady today.
  • While price action has been choppy this week, lean hog futures are working on solid weekly gains, which should help to limit price pressure today.
  • Upside potential is being limited by the expected seasonal rise in supplies.
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