Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- August 19, 2013

August 19, 2013 03:12 AM
 

Corn futures are called 7 to 12 cents higher on weather concerns.

  • Corn futures ended the overnight session 5 to 10 cents higher and are expected to build on those gains in early daytime trade.
  • Dry weekend conditions provided the market a boost in overnight trade, with traders also concerned about the impacts of warmer and dry conditions this week on the filling crop.
  • Traders expect this afternoon's crop condition data to reflect deterioration.
  • Traders are also keeping an eye on reports from the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Scouts on the eastern and western legs of the tour began gathering samples this morning. Final results from Ohio and South Dakota will be released tonight.
  • Gulf corn basis is 5 cents weaker for immediate deliver to stand $1.00 over September futures to reflect lackluster demand.

 

Soybean futures are called 15 to 25 cents higher on concerns about the weather.

  • Soybean futures ended the overnight session 8 to 21 cents higher, with nearbys leading gains.
  • November soybeans ended 20 1/4 cents higher on concerns about the dry near-term forecast, which raises concerns about the filling crop.
  • The NWS forecast for Aug. 24-28 calls for above-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with a mix of precip.
  • Traders are also keeping an eye on data from the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, as scouts began taking samples on the western and eastern legs of the Tour this morning. Final results from Ohio and South Dakota will be released tonight.
  • November soybean futures have violated downtrending resistance drawn off June and July reaction highs. A close above this level and followthrough buying tomorrow would be a bullish technical clue.
  • Gulf soybean basis is unchanged this morning for all delivery months. Basis for immediate delivery is $1.40 over November futures.

 

Wheat futures are called 5 to 10 cents higher on spillover from neighboring pits.

  • Wheat futures ended the overnight session mostly 5 to 6 cents higher across all flavors on spillover from neighboring pits.
  • Buying is being limited to spillover from corn and soybeans and outside markets are choppy this morning.
  • French analyst Agritel expects the country's soft wheat crop to be the largest in nine years at 37 MMT. That's above the farm ministry's peg of 36.1 MMT.
  • This provided another reminder that U.S. wheat is not competitively priced on the global market.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning to stand 35 cents over September futures. Wheat needs a pickup in export demand to provide fundamental support to the market.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open higher in reaction to Friday's higher cash trade.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to see a boost from last week's late cash cattle trade.
  • Cash trade picked up late Friday afternoon at $123, which is up $2 from the previous week.
  • Higher-than-expected cash trade raises expectations a seasonal bottom has been established and gives traders encouragement to reestablish long positions.
  • All eyes will be on the boxed beef market as traders gauge demand. Beef prices firmed last week due to tighter supplies, but movement remained lackluster.
  • Feeder futures are expected to see spillover from live cattle and ongoing strength in the cash market, although strength in the corn market this morning could limit buying interest.

 

Lean hog futures are expected to open steady to weaker on building supplies.

  • Lean hog futures are expected to be weaker this morning due to expectations for a seasonal increase in hog marketings.
  • December lean hog futures posted a low-range close on Friday. Followthrough this morning to fill last week's midweek gap would be a clue a near-term high has been posted.
  • Pork cutout values firmed $1.27 on Friday, but movement was lackluster at 286.2 loads.
  • The cash hog market is expected to be steady to weaker this morning as packers are thought to be well supplied on early week needs.
  • But pressure on futures should be limited as October lean hog futures will start the week at around a $16 discount to the cash index.
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