Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- August 21, 2013

August 21, 2013 03:10 AM
 

Corn futures are called 6 to 8 cents higher on dry weather concerns and spillover from beans.

  • Corn futures ended the overnight session near its highs with gains around 6 cents.
  • Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealed a corn yield in Indiana of 167.36 bu. per acre, which compares to 113.25 bu. per acre last year and a three-year average of 141.14 bu. per acre. But scouts did note the need for rain.
  • The western leg of the Tour found a Nebraska corn yield of 154.93 bu. per acre, which compares to 131.79 bu. per acre last year and a three-year average of 147.93 bu. per acre. Scouts deemed this as an "ordinary" Nebraska corn crop.
  • Scouts travel into drought areas of Illinois and Iowa today. Final results from Illinois and western Iowa will be released tonight.
  • The short-term forecast for heat to continue with limited rainfall is expected to provide support. The latest National Weather Service forecast for Aug. 26-30 calls for above-normal temps across the Corn Belt, which would increase moisture needs. But the forecast also calls for above-normal precip for most of the Belt.
  • Gulf basis surged 8 to 20 cents for August delivery this morning and it rose 12 cents for September and 4 cents for October delivery. This signals export demand news is likely ahead.
  • News Argentina's deputy ag secretary expects the country to export 22 MMT to 24 MMT of its 2012-13 corn crop is limiting gains. The government has thus far authorized just 17 MMT of exports.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 20 to 25 cents higher amid a return of value buying and weather worries.

  • Soybean futures ended overnight trade near session highs with gains of 22 to 23 cents on a return of bargain buying.
  • Building dryness continues to support the bean market. The near-term weather outlook is mixed. Yesterday's NWS forecast for Aug. 26-30 calls for above-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with normal to mostly above-normal precip.
  • Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealed Indiana soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square at 1,185.14, which compares to 1,033.24 last year and a three-year average of 1,136.48.
  • Nebraska soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square totaled 1,138.94, which compares to 894.43 last year and a three-year average of 1,162.42.
  • Today, scouts will travel across western Iowa and finish up in Illinois. Final results from Illinois and western Iowa will be released tonight.
  • Statistics Canada expects Record-large canola production of 14.734, which would be a record, though the tally fell a bit short of the average pre-report guess.

 

Wheat futures are called 4 to 6 cents higher for SRW and HRW, while HRS wheat is expected to see lighter gains.

  • Wheat futures ended the overnight session roughly 4 to 6 cents higher for SRW and HRW, with HRS seeing slightly lighter gains.
  • Wheat futures will continue to follow the lead of the corn and soybean markets.
  • Strength in the U.S. dollar index is expected to temper gains, however.
  • Stats Canada pegs all wheat production at 30.56 MMT, which came in above expectations and 3.357 MMT above year-ago.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open mixed as traders wait on cash market clues.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to see a mixed start as traders wait on cash cattle trade to begin.
  • August live cattle continue to trade at a small premium to last week's $123 cash cattle trade, which signals traders have a positive attitude given tightening market-ready supplies.
  • Traders are also beginning to even positions ahead of Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report, which is expected to show On Feed at 95.8% of year-ago levels.
  • The boxed beef market continues to be lackluster. Choice values firmed 38 cents and Select declined $1.33, with just 150 loads changing hands.
  • Meanwhile, feeder cattle futures are likely to face pressure due to strength in the corn market and the U.S. dollar index.

 

Lean hog futures are called steady to lower on building pork supplies.

  • Lean hog futures saw a mixed close yesterday, but nearby futures ended steady to higher. Followthrough buying for nearbys is possible this morning as these contracts remain at a steep discount to the cash hog index.
  • The cash hog market is called steady to weaker amid building market-ready supplies. This gives packers little incentive to raise bids.
  • Pork cutout values firmed just 3 cents yesterday, but movement improved to 389 loads. Still, pork belly prices plunged $9.88 yesterday, which raises concern that other cuts will follow.
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