Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- July 24, 2013

July 24, 2013 03:16 AM
 

Corn futures are called to open 1 to 5 cents lower this morning.

  • Corn futures were higher for much of the overnight session, but faded in the last few minutes of trade to end lower. September corn was 6 3/4 cents lower overnight, while new-crop contracts were fractionally to 2 cents lower.
  • Heavy pressure on August beans weighed on corn late in the overnight session and will keep pressure on the market this morning.
  • Additional pressure will come from the weather as forecasts call for below-normal temps and scattered rain chances across the Corn Belt into next week. As a result, traders feel the first big wave of corn pollination will occur under non-stressful conditions.
  • On the demand front, South Korea purchased 120,000 MT of optional origin corn overnight. Traders are waiting to see if China shows up as a buyer of U.S. new-crop corn on the drop below $5.00 in December corn futures, as it did the last time this happened.

 

Soybean futures are expected to open with a mixed tone this morning.

  • August soybean futures finished 36 cents lower and the September contract was 8 1/4 cents lower overnight, while new-crop contracts were mildly firmer.
  • Price action yesterday and overnight signals a top is in place for old-crop soybeans. August futures posted a bearish reversal yesterday and sharply extended those losses overnight. Meanwhile, the cash market across the countryside and at the Gulf was under pressure yesterday.
  • There continues to be talk China may release 3 MMT of government soybean reserves onto the domestic Chinese market, which would likely curb demand for U.S. soybeans.
  • Concerns with the slowed development of this year's crop should limit selling in new-crop futures. But forecasts call for below-normal temps and scattered rain chances into next week, which will limit buying interest.

 

Wheat futures are expected to open the day session 2 to 5 cents higher.

  • SRW, HRW and HRS wheat futures finished slightly higher overnight amid a round of light short-covering.
  • But with corn struggling to find a low, buying interest in wheat will remain limited to mild corrective buying.
  • Fresh demand news is needed to fuel buying interest in wheat. Algeria bought at least 400,000 MT of optional origin wheat overnight, though that business is likely to be filled with French wheat. Traders are awaiting results of the Egyptian tender.
  • Scouts found better-than-average yield potential in spring wheat fields in southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota on the first leg of the Wheat Quality Council HRS tour on Tuesday. The day 1 average yield came in at 43.3 bu. per acre compared to 42.9 bu. last year and the five-year average of 41.7 bu. per acre on similar routes. Scouts will be in northwestern and north-central North Dakota today.

 

Live cattle futures are called steady to lower. Feeder cattle futures are also expected to open weaker.

  • Light and choppy trade is expected in live cattle futures this morning as traders wait on direction from the cash cattle market.
  • There are hopes for steady to firmer cash cattle prices compared with last week's mostly $119 trade in the Plains. Showlist numbers are down from week-ago, especially in Texas, but packers may be hesitant to raise cash bids with the boxed beef market reeling.
  • Boxed beef prices were $1.70 to $2.64 lower Tuesday, though packers moved an improved 202 loads of product on the day. Still, the price action signals the product market is still searching for a low.
  • Feeder cattle futures are expected to face light selling amid an expected weaker start in live cattle and a mostly firmer tone in corn overnight.

 

Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone.

  • Lean hog futures could face profit-taking pressure following yesterday's strong gains. But early price action is likely to be two-sided.
  • August lean hog futures have narrowed the gap with the cash market, but remain at a slight discount, which will limit selling interest and could encourage more buying.
  • Cash hog bids are expected to be steady at most Midwest locations today. Some packers are still looking to fill in late-week slaughter runs. Saturday slaughter plans could increase if margins improve.
  • The pork cutout value firmed 62 cents and packers moved 403.6 loads of product on the day, which is the best day for the pork product market in a while.
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