Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- June 17, 2013

June 17, 2013 03:16 AM
 

Corn futures are called 2 to 5 cents lower amid bull spreading.

  • Front-month July corn ended the overnight session 2 cents lower, with the rest of the market down 5 to 6 cents.
  • Pressure on July corn is being limited by tight supplies and last week's basis improvement.
  • Gulf corn basis is steady this morning to stand 92 cents above July futures for immediate delivery.
  • New-crop futures are being pressured by improved weather conditions, as soggy areas of the Corn Belt did not receive as much rain as expected over the weekend. And forecasts call for warm, sunny weather early this week. But rains are forecast to return late-week and yesterday's National Weather Service (NWS) 6-10 day forecast calls for above-normal precip across the bulk of the Corn Belt, with the exception being normal to below-normal precip for Nebraska.
  • Pressure on new-crop corn should be limited by some nervousness about the establishment of the crop and what this afternoon's crop condition data.

 

Soybean futures are called 10 to 15 cents lower on perceptions of improved weather.

  • Soybeans ended the overnight session 9 to 15 cents lower, with losses evenly dispersed among old- and new-crop contracts.
  • Traders say better-than-expected weekend weather conditions should lead to stepped-up planting progress this week across the Corn Belt.
  • There are some scattered showers in the forecast for this week across the Corn Belt and the NWS 6-10 day forecast calls for above-normal precip across the Upper, Central and eastern Belt.
  • Gulf soybean basis is steady this morning to stand 76 cents above July futures for immediate delivery.
  • Price action could turn increasingly volatile today as traders are unsure what this afternoon's progress and condition data from USDA will reveal.

 

Wheat futures are called to open 2 to 4 cents lower amid harvest progress.

  • Chicago wheat ended the overnight session mostly 4 cents lower, with Kansas City down 1 to 2 cents and Minneapolis 1 to 4 cents lower.
  • Harvest-related hedge pressure is maintaining a negative tone in the wheat market. There is some rain in the forecast for HRW wheat areas this week, which could temporarily delay harvest activity.
  • Sunday's NWS 6-10 day forecast signals open harvest weather is ahead, with normal to below-normal precip expected in the Central and Southern Plains.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady to 2 cents lower for late summer delivery on anticipation of new-crop supplies.
  • USDA announced late Friday it has not detected additional GMO material in wheat samples in Oregon, but Japan and South Korea continue to ban U.S. western white wheat shipments.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open slightly to moderately lower on followthrough selling.

  • Following last week's losses, live cattle are expected to be weaker this morning on followthrough selling and concerns about demand for cash cattle.
  • June cattle ended last week at a $1 discount to last week's $2 lower cash cattle trade of $120 in the Southern Plains.
  • Cash sources say feedlots did not clean up showlists last week, meaning market-ready supplies were (once again) carried over this week.
  • Choice boxed beef values slipped $1.10 on Friday to return below the $200-per-cwt. level, with Select down 58 cents. Traders will be watching to see if beef movement picks up on the decline in beef values.
  • Feeder cattle futures are expected to see a weaker start, but pressure should be limited by weakness in the corn market.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open slightly to moderately higher on strength in the pork cutout market.

  • Following Friday's mixed trade, lean hog futures are expected to be stronger to start the week in reaction to tight market-ready supplies and strength in the pork cutout market.
  • Pork cutout values surged $3.89 on Friday to boost packers' profit margins. Sharp gains in belly prices contributed to the price boost.
  • The cash hog market is called steady to higher this morning as packers compete for tight market-ready supplies.
  • July lean hog futures are now the lead-month contract and ended last week at about a $2 discount to the cash index, which opens fresh upside potential.
     
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