Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- June 19, 2013

June 19, 2013 03:16 AM
 

Corn futures are called to open 2 to 6 cents lower amid profit-taking.

  • Following yesterday's strong gains, corn futures were softer overnight amid profit-taking.
  • Traders continue to keep an eye on the weather, as warmer temps are giving the crop a boost. But with rain returning in the forecast, traders remain concerned about the soggy start to the growing season.
  • Today's price action is also important for a technical standpoint after July corn filled the late March gap yesterday and closed within the gap area.
  • Gulf corn basis is 7 cents higher for immediate delivery to stand $1.02 over July futures, with basis for July delivery up 3 cents. This reflects tight supplies but also a potential increase in demand.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 1 to 2 cents lower as traders reevaluate positions.

  • Soybean futures didn't stray too far from unchanged in overnight trade following yesterday's late-session decline as traders are reevaluating positions.
  • Traders are also finding it difficult to extend long positions after a few days of warmer, drier weather has allowed planting across the bulk of the Corn Belt to resume.
  • But traders also recognize the wet spring has delayed establishment of the crop.
  • China National Grain and Oils Information Center sees the country's soybean imports rising to 6.9 MMT this month, which would be up from 5.1 MMT in May.
  • Gulf soybean basis is 4 cents stronger for immediate delivery to stand 78 cents over July futures to suggest some fresh demand news is coming.

 

Chicago and Kansas City wheat are expected to be softer this morning, while Minneapolis is called firmer on crop concerns.

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures were marginally to 2 cents lower in overnight trade on spillover from neighboring pits, while Minneapolis wheat was 1 to 2 cents higher on concerns about the spring wheat crop.
  • In general, traders are hesitant to extend positions either way this morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's statement on monetary policy, which is due at 1:00 p.m. CT.
  • News that India will talk about increasing its wheat exports and domestic sales from government reserves on Friday is reminding traders about the plentiful global supply situation.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning to reflect lackluster demand. It stands 40 cents over July futures.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open steady to weaker on followthrough from yesterday's losses.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to see followthrough from yesterday's losses as well as a lack of bullish enthusiasm due to concerns about beef demand.
  • Choice beef values slipped 95 cents yesterday to $200.24, while Select was up 36 cents to $184.39.
  • Yesterday's beef movement of 197 loads is decent, but it isn't strong enough to force packers to raise bids this week.
  • Cash cattle trade will likely be delayed until tomorrow or Friday as packers have not yet begun bidding for cattle.
  • Feeder cattle futures are expected to be steady to weaker on concerns about demand for fed cattle.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open slightly to moderately higher on improvement in the pork cutout market.

  • Lean hog futures are expected to be stronger this morning after yesterday's day of bull spreading due to strength in the pork cutout market.
  • Pork cutout values improved $1.90 yesterday, with gains in loins leading the way. Movement of 345.5 loads is an improvement.
  • Packers are expected to keep bids steady today as they are enjoying improved profit margins. But if the pork market continues to strengthen it should boost packer demand for cash supplies.
  • July lean hog futures are trading at nearly a $4 discount to the cash index, which is also encouraging to bulls.
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