Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- June 3, 2013

June 3, 2013 03:15 AM
 

Corn futures are called to open 5 to 10 cents higher on planting delays.

  • Corn ended the overnight session mostly 5 to 6 cents higher to build on last week's gains.
  • Planting delays are lifting new-crop corn futures, with old-crop futures supported by the tight supply situation.
  • December corn is testing the March high of $5.73 3/4. Closes above it would have bulls targeting the February high of $5.96 1/2.
  • The National Weather Service forecast for June 8-12 calls for above-normal precip across the bulk of the Corn Belt, which is raising questions about how many of the remaining unplanted corn acres will be claimed as Prevent Plant, be switched to soybeans or be planted under less-than-ideal conditions.
  • Gulf corn basis has softened by 1 to 2 cents for June delivery to stand 79 cents over July futures.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 20-plus cents higher on tight old-crop supplies and planting delays.

  • Soybean futures ended the overnight session 23 to 28 cents higher.
  • Soybean futures are the upside leader despite expectations corn planting delays will result in some acres being switched to soybeans.
  • Tight old-crop stocks are adding to strength in the bean pit.
  • Next resistance for November beans is the February high of $13.50 3/4.
  • Mixed economic data from China is being put on the backburner this morning. While China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose in May, its final HSBC PMI, which focuses on smaller manufacturers, fell to its lowest reading since October 2012.
  • Gulf soybean basis is steady this morning to stand 80 cents over July futures for early June delivery.

 

Wheat futures are called to open 4 to 10 cents higher on spillover from neighboring pits.

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat ended the overnight session 6 to 8 cents higher, with Kansas City up mostly around 3 cents.
  • Additional support is coming from concerns about flooding in parts of Europe ahead of its wheat harvest and ongoing planting delays in the U.S. and Canadian Prairies.
  • Initial tests conducted by South Korea's Ministry of Food and Drugs have found no evidence of GMO content in U.S. wheat shipments. Final test results are expected Wednesday.
  • Weakness in the U.S. dollar index is also supportive for the wheat pit this morning.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning to stand 49 cents over July futures for immediate delivery.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open mixed as traders wait on direction from the boxed beef market.

  • Live cattle futures ended last week on a positive note to post slight gains for the week. But bulls still have a lot of work ahead to improve the technical posture of the market.
  • Futures are expected to see a choppy start as traders wait to see how the boxed beef market starts the week.
  • Choice beef values slipped $1.90 on Friday and Select softened by $1.89, but movement was solid at 162 loads.
  • Plus, packers' profit margins are well in the black, which gives them plenty of room to raise bids this week even if the beef market softens.
  • Strength in the corn market is expected to weigh on feeder futures this morning. Plus, August feeder futures are trading at around a $14 premium to the cash index.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open steady to firmer on light followthrough buying.

  • After posting solid gains last week, lean hog futures are expected to see light followthrough buying.
  • Futures are expected to see a boost from tightening market-ready supplies.
  • Packers are in need of supplies to start the week, which is expected to result in a steady to mostly firmer start to the cash hog market.
  • June lean hog futures are trading at around a $1.50 premium to the cash hog index.
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