Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- May 29, 2013

May 29, 2013 03:14 AM
 

Corn futures are called 1 to 3 cents higher on concerns about planting delays.

  • Corn ended the overnight session 1 to 3 cents higher in all but the front-month contract, which ended 3/4 cent lower.
  • Yesterday's crop progress report from USDA showed corn planting 86% complete, which leaves 13.6 million of intended corn acres unplanted as of Sunday.
  • With more rain in the forecast for this week in already drenched areas of the central and upper Corn Belt, traders are coming to the realization some corn acres will be switched to another crop, planted at a very late date or claimed as prevent-plant.
  • Gulf corn basis is 2 cents firmer for immediate delivery to stand $1.04 over July futures to suggest fresh demand news is looming.

 

Soybean futures are expected to be mixed this morning following yesterday's gains as traders reevaluate positions.

  • Following yesterday's sharp gains, soybean futures were narrowly mixed in overnight trade. Key will be if futures build on yesterday's gains to confirm the upside breakouts.
  • USDA reports 44% of the nation's soybean crop has been planted, which came in two percentage points above expectations, but below the five-year average of 61%.
  • Traders are cautious about adding to long positions given ongoing corn planting delays, which raises the possibility some of those acres will be switched to soybeans.
  • USDA says China has canceled 147,000 MT in soybean purchases for 2012-13.
  • Gulf soybean basis has softened by 5 cents for immediate delivery to stand 80 cents over July futures. Basis for all other months is steady to a penny softer.

 

Wheat futures are called to open steady to 1 cent lower amid position squaring.

  • Wheat futures ended the overnight session 1 to 2 cents lower in Chicago, marginally lower in Kansas City and mixed in Minneapolis.
  • Pressure is being limited by yesterday's crop condition report, which showed further deterioration in the winter wheat crop.
  • Our weighted Crop Condition Index shows the HRW and SRW crops slipped by 3 points from last week.
  • SovEcon revised its 2013-14 Russian wheat crop higher to 50 MMT, with wheat exportable supplies at 13 MMT to 15 MMT.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open steady to firmer as traders are cautiously optimistic about beef demand.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to enjoy light followthrough from yesterday's gains as nearby futures are trading at a discount to last week's cash market.
  • While Choice boxed beef values softened by 33 cents and Select was down 51 cents, 191 loads of cuts changed hands yesterday.
  • If boxed beef movement picks up this week, it would strongly suggest consumers have accepted higher prices for the grilling season.
  • This week's cattle showlist is up slightly from last week, which puts more pressure on the boxed beef market to help stabilize cash bids.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open mixed, with buying limited by a disappointing pork product movement.

  • Lean hog futures ended yesterday mixed as traders waited on signs of weekend pork clearance.
  • Traders aren't impressed with the start of the pork cutout market for the week. Only 297.3 loads of product moved yesterday and prices slipped by 93 cents.
  • Packers' profit margins have slipped into the red, which is expected to soften demand for cash hogs. Early expectations are for mostly steady cash bids today, but some weaker tones could develop due to variable demand.
  • Traders will be keeping a close eye on the pork product market as it provides important demand information, especially given the fact frozen pork stocks at the end of April were record high.
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