Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- September 11, 2013

September 11, 2013 03:09 AM
 

Corn futures are called to open mixed as traders even positions ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports.

  • New-crop corn futures ended the overnight narrowly mixed.
  • Traders' focus is on evening positions ahead of tomorrow's reports. Traders look for USDA to peg the corn crop at 13.646 billion bu., with a yield of 153.9 bu. per acre.
  • Because of smaller crop expectations, traders expect USDA to trim 2013-14 carryover to around 1.7 million bu., down from 1.837 million bu. last month.
  • It's no surprise the China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects the country's 2013-14 corn crop to be a record-large 215 MMT, up 4.6% from year-ago. It left its corn import forecast at 5.5 MMT -- below USDA's August forecast of 7 MMT.
  • Meanwhile, a Taiwanese trade delegation signed letters of intent Tuesday to buy 5 MMT of U.S. corn and 500,000 MT of U.S. distillers dried grains (DDGs) over the next two years.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 2 to 4 cents higher on pre-report positioning.

  • Soybean futures ended the overnight session 1 to 3 cents higher as traders are evening positions ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports.
  • According to pre-report expectations, traders look for USDA to peg the soybean crop at 3.149 billion bu., with a yield of 41.3 bu. per acre.
  • Due to the smaller crop estimate compared to last month, traders look for USDA to trim 2013-14 carryover to around 161 million bu., down from 220 million bu. last month.
  • Buying is being limited this morning as light, scattered rains are pushing across the western Corn Belt. Temps will also drop as the cool front passes. The improved weather should help some of the crop, but it's too late for beans that are already shutting down.
  • Key this morning will be how comfortable funds are with long positions ahead of tomorrow's reports.

 

Wheat futures are called mixed in lackluster pre-report trade.

  • Wheat futures are expected to start the day session mixed as futures didn't stray too far from unchanged in overnight trade.
  • Focus is on evening positions ahead of Thursday's USDA reports. Traders look for USDA to raise carryover by around 5 million bu. from last month to 556 million bushels.
  • USDA announced a 120,000-MT HRW wheat sale to Nigeria for 2013-14. Firmer Gulf basis signals more demand news may be coming.
  • SRW Gulf basis for immediate delivery is up 19 cents to stand 40 cents above December futures.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open slightly lower on concerns with the boxed beef market.

  • Live cattle are expected to see followthrough from yesterday's losses, as futures are signaling a near-term high has been posted.
  • Additional pressure is expected to come from a softer tone in the boxed beef market. Choice values dropped 60 cents yesterday and Select declined $1.12 on lackluster movement of 188 loads.
  • The combination of sluggish beef trade and higher showlist numbers doesn't bode well for feedlots that are seeking higher bids for cash cattle.
  • A choppy tone in the corn market could result in a mixed start for feeder cattle futures.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open mixed on a continuation of yesterday's choppy tone.

  • Lean hog futures are expected to be mixed this morning as traders reevaluate positions.
  • Futures are vulnerable to profit-taking following recent sharp gains, but bulls still have momentum on their side.
  • Pressure on futures will be limited by strength in the pork product market. The pork cutout value firmed 45 cents yesterday and movement picked up to 407.3 loads.
  • As a result, packers have incentive to bid up for hogs. The cash hog market is called steady to firmer again this morning.
     
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