Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- September 30, 2013

September 30, 2013 03:15 AM

Corn futures are called steady to 2 cents higher on light short-covering.

  • Corn futures ended the overnight session 1 to 2 cents higher on short-covering and pre-report position squaring.
  • Traders' focus is on evening positions ahead of this morning's 11:00 a.m. CT Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that is expected to set 2013-14 carry-in at 688 million bushels.
  • Traders will want to have positions squared away early in the session this morning, which could lead to lackluster trade ahead of the report.
  • Outside markets are also being closely followed this morning due to the looming government shutdown.
  • A sharply weaker U.S. dollar index is positive for commodity markets this morning, but crude oil and gold are sharply lower to signal widespread risk reduction across the markets.


Soybean futures are called to open 5 to 10 cents lower on profit-taking.

  • Soybean futures ended the overnight session mostly 6 cents lower on profit-taking and concerns about a government shutdown.
  • The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower this morning, but gold and crude oil are also posting sharp losses.
  • Traders are also focused on evening positions ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that is expected to set 2013-14 carry-in at a very tight 126 million bushels.
  • Traders will also be working on even positions as they close out the quarter and month. That, combined with the USDA reports later this morning could be very telling of near-term direction of the soybean market.
  • This would especially be true if futures move out of the boundaries of last week's consolidation range.


Wheat futures are called mixed on position squaring.

  • SRW wheat ended the overnight session marginally to 3 cents lower, with HRW up mostly 1 cent. HRS futures ended narrowly mixed.
  • Traders expect this morning's Quarterly Grain Stocks Report to show all wheat stocks at the end of September at 1.938 billion bushels.
  • Meanwhile, the Small Grains Summary is expected to peg all wheat production at 2.121 billion bu., which is realized, would be up slightly from 2.114 billion bu. in August.
  • Sharp weakness on the U.S. dollar index, as well as sharp pressure on gold and crude oil futures signals traders are not comfortable with their current risk levels due to the potential for a government shutdown at midnight.


Live cattle futures are called to open steady to higher in reaction to Friday's higher cash trade.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to enjoy followthrough from last week's gains, although futures are vulnerable to spillover from expected weakness in the hog pit.
  • Traders believe futures and the cash market have posted a low, as cash traded as much as $4 higher in Nebraska in the dressed market on Friday.
  • Cash sources say they are still waiting on official cash results from the Southern Plains, although they indicate cash trade appeared to be very light.
  • Feeder cattle futures are vulnerable to profit-taking given the premium nearby futures hold to the cash index.


Lean hog futures are expected to open under pressure as traders react to Friday's bearish Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

  • Lean hog futures are expected to be lower in reaction to Friday's bearish Quarterly Hogs & Pigs (H&P) Report.
  • Instead of showing all Hogs & Pigs below year-ago levels, the report showed inventory about even with year-ago. As a result, traders will look for slaughter to soon creep above year-ago levels.
  • Meanwhile, the cash hog market is called mixed amid varied demand. Some packers are in need of early week supplies while others say they will have no difficulty securing supplies.
  • Pork cutout values firmed 8 cents on Friday and movement slowed to 291.07 loads.
  • Pressure on futures could be limited by the $4 discount October lean hogs hold to the cash index.
Back to news


Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer