Ahead of the Open (VIP) -- September 5, 2013

September 5, 2013 03:19 AM

Corn futures are called 5 to 7 cents lower on profit-taking.

  • Corn futures saw followthrough from yesterday's losses in overnight trade to signal traders have limited concerns about the crop.
  • Still, INTL FC Stone has lowered its peg of the crop to 13.942 billion bu. on a national average yield of 156.4 bu. per acre.
  • The latest NWS 6- to 10-day outlook calls for above-normal temps for much of the Corn Belt but for normal to above-normal precip.
  • The latest National Drought Monitor shows the Midwest drought area virtually unchanged from last week, but it reflects an increase in the intensity of drought following last week's hot and dry conditions.
  • Meanwhile, the head of rural development of China's Development and Research Center says the country may lower its self-sufficiency rate for corn from 95% to 80%. If realized, corn imports could rise to 20 MMT to 30 MMT.


Soybean futures are called to open 10 to 20 cents lower on profit-taking.

  • Soybean futures ended the overnight session with double-digit losses and near session lows.
  • Key this morning will be if funds step up their profit-taking efforts, as November beans have entered the late August gap area.
  • Still, brokerage firm INTL FC Stone has lowered its soybean crop peg to 3.146 billion bu. on a national average yield of 41.2 bu. per acre.
  • There is limited rain in the near-term forecast and the drought monitor shows an increase in the intensity of drought from last week.


Wheat futures are called to open 3 to 5 cents lower on spillover from neighboring pits.

  • SRW wheat ended the overnight session 3 cents lower, with HRW down marginally to 2 cents. HRS ended mixed.
  • Wheat is vulnerable to spillover from profit-taking in corn and soybean futures.
  • Traders also remain cautious about demand given recent strength in the U.S. dollar index.
  • Pressure may be limited by news from Russia's deputy ag minister the county may export less wheat this year than previously predicted. The ministry forecasts 2013-14 wheat exports at 18 MMT to 20 MMT and production at 90 MMT.


Live cattle futures are called to open mixed as traders are cautiously optimistic about the beef market.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to be mixed on a combination of followthrough from yesterday's losses and short-covering.
  • Traders may also work to narrow the premium nearbys hold to last week's cash trade.
  • But pressure should be limited by a pickup in boxed beef trade. Choice values improved 46 cents yesterday on improved movement of 230 loads.
  • Traders remain cautious about demand, especially with the summer grilling season "officially" over. Traders expect retailers to switch their focus from higher-quality cuts.
  • Feeder futures are called mixed, with some support coming from slight weakness in the corn market.


Lean hog futures are called to open steady to firmer on strength in the pork market.

  • Lean hog futures are expected to enjoy followthrough from yesterday's gains on improvement in the pork market.
  • Pork cutout values rose 9 cents yesterday on strong movement of 532.3 loads.
  • But a seasonal build in market-ready hog supplies will limit packers' willingness to raise bids.
  • The cash hog market is called steady to weaker as packers are having no difficulty securing supplies.
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