ALERT 8/26/2013: NH3 Worth a Look as Dec Corn Pops in the Heat

August 26, 2013 11:00 AM

We noted a few moves today that we believe are worth a closer look. Anhydrous has been sticky at the top of its range and is finally starting to look like a buy in Iowa, North Dakota, Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. Check with your local supplier as prices will vary.

You may want to give anhydrous some time to bleed a little more, but I'm concerned with today's corn chart that shows the kind of pop we have been watching out for. If today's upside swing turns into a bull run, those who got in to some NH3 today will have come out ahead. Manage the risk as we still believe there is downside potential based on robust anhydrous supplies coming out of healthy production in Trinidad and Tobago.Deccorn8 26

Consider booking 25-30% of fall anhydrous in one of our 'go-States' before the bulls break in. A week long heat wave is taking hold here in the center of the Corn Belt, and concerns of persistent drought may move corn futures -- and fertilizer pricing -- higher.

Anhydrous moved strongly lower in some states including a $14.30 slide in Kansas to $627.69, $34.91 lower in Iowa to $706.06, $48.45 lower in North Dakota to $700.34 and Ohio anhydrous comes in HOT, fading $123.16 to post a fresh anhydrous price point at $828.89 -- finally within $100.00 of the regional average. We expect general declines to continue in the medium-term and we may find ourselves booking NPK for fall on a downhill slope with prices bottoming sometime after the new year.

As always, check your appetite for risk. December corn looks pretty buoyant today, and results from Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour were positive for expected yield, but scouts and analysts alike were quick to point out that their measurements tallied potential yield, and that the weather conditions from here on out will make or break this crop. This as we open this week under a heat dome that threatens to seal heat in and precipitation out of the areas that most need some timely rains.

December corn futures opened today at $4.80 at the top end of a 5 1/2 cent gap on the daily chart, ending the day 20 cents higher at $5.00. Futures are supported by Crop Tour's findings that some work has yet to be done on this crop, and a weather forecast that spells out Crop Tour's worst case scenario.

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