ALERT 9/26/2013: Fill P&K for Fall

September 26, 2013 05:50 AM

CROP PRODUCERS: Fill remainder of fall P&K at current prices.

  • Extend coverage to 75%-100% filled on fall potash at current price levels.
  • Fill 75%-100% fall DAP/MAP and 20% spring needs at current price levels.


Potash -- Current prices are $96.02 below year-ago based on rumors that oversupply from FSU sources will continue to pressure prices lower. Last week, however, executives at PotashCorp noted the potash market is currently "paralyzed". Suppliers and end users are waiting out declines, but by the time the turnaround registers, today's prices will have come and gone. Buy the rumor here. We expect springtime pricing to look very different than the rumors suggest.

-- We have advised to book 30% of fall potash and 20% spring. Extend coverage to 75%-100% filled for fall.

DAP/MAP -- DAP is down $108.26 from year-ago and showed some strong signs of bottoming this week with seven of our twelve states moving higher. The same is true of MAP which is down $80.13 year-over. Ammonia prices are headed higher and as a feedstock, will take phosphate with it. After several weeks of solid declines, phosphate moved strongly higher in this week's Monitor Index signaling the time is now to reward the setback.

-- This is our first move on phosphate this season. Fill 75%-100% of fall DAP.

Position Monitor --

  • Potash: 30% filled for fall -- extend to 75%-100%, 20% filled for spring.
  • DAP/MAP: 0% filled -- extend to 75%-100% for fall, 20% for spring.
  • Anhydrous: 100% filled for fall.
  • Urea: 100% filled for fall, 20%-40% for spring.
  • Farm Diesel: 100% filled for fall. 0% for spring.
  • LP/Natgas: 100% filled for fall.

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