ALERT March 26, 2014 -- Anhydrous Ammonia, Phosphate

March 26, 2014 08:19 AM
 

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Anhydrous Ammonia hasn't moved much since our ALERT the first week of this month, but we advise again today to fill spring/summer anhydrous as the downside is very limited. Adding to our concern is word that Mosaic and YARA have agreed to a Tampa ammonia price $120.00 above the previous peg. We believe that arrangement is largely for ammonia as phosphate production feedstock, but the spike dried up our appetite for Nh3 risk. If you have not filled 100% of Nh3 for spring, do so at current prices.

This week, anhydrous posts its second sharpest upward turn since the price falloff started in July. This week up $6.43/short ton to a regional average of $659.54/st.

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Phosphate production has one less player as Mosaic recently finalized the purchase of CF's phosphate segment. The narrowing of the producer playing field is enough to add upside risk, but now that wholesale ammonia for phosphate production has corrected to the high side, phosphate prices will move higher. We are 80% filled on phosphate for spring and advise today to fill remaining needs at current prices to get to 100% filled on spring P.

This week, DAP is $4.88 higher to a regional average of $570.77/st; MAP is $3.70 higher on the week at $585.71.

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Inputs Position Monitor
NH3
DAP
MAP
K
UAN28%
UAN32%
Urea
Farm Diesel
LP
Natural gas
Spring 2014 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 80% 50% 0% 0%
Fall 2014
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Prices may vary so, as always, check with your preferred supplier.


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