Analyst: 2017 Stock-Building for Soybeans, Hold Own in Corn

September 28, 2016 12:25 PM

Harvest has been underway in the U.S. for several weeks. In South America, farmers are beginning to plant.

With a predicted record U.S. crop and no weather issues of any significance, Don Roose of U.S. Commodities  believes both corn and soybeans can expect competition in June and July. 

“I think the export window is going to close in the middle of the winter,” said Roose.

South America raises more soybeans than the U.S., about 1.5 times as many, said Roose. In 2017, South American soybean production will be between 101 and 104 million metric tons, compared to approximately 96 million metric tons this year.

Most of Argentina’s corn crop is already in the ground. According to Argentina’s ag ministry, corn acres will increase 4 percent, or roughly 17.8 million acres. This would be the largest crop in the country in 76 years, and pressure could be felt by U.S. growers.

With a short corn crop last year, production for 2017 is predicted to be around 30 percent. 

2017 Acreage Mix Prediction

When adjusted for inflation, wheat farmers are seeing the lowest prices since the Great Depression. In response to the market and prices, Roose forecasts wheat acres will drop to 49 million acres. 

Corn acres are expecting a drop as well. Last year. said Roose, corn acres are up approximately 6 million. In 2017, expect to see a 1 million drop.

“Looks like next year could be a stock-building year on soybeans and holding our own in corn,” said Roose.

In the U.S., soybean acres could increase from 4 to 5 million acres, giving the chance for a potential 650 to 700 million bushel carryout.

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