Analyst: Never Bet Against the Farmer

May 4, 2017 03:15 PM

Heavy rain hit the Corn Belt over the weekend and through the week, leaving close to 20 people dead.

Flooding in Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois has closed hundreds of miles of roadways and has turned fields and towns into lakes.

In terms of grain, the weather might be able to support prices a little bit, but Brian Splitt of Allendale, Inc. says the concern should come later.

“If we’re less than 50 percent planted by May 10, May 15, the fund managers might think there could be a drag on yield,” said Splitt.

In the entire U.S., 34 percent of the corn crop is planted, right on pace with the 5-year average. 10 percent of the soybean crop is planted, three points ahead of the 5-year average.

Tommy Grisafi, commodity risk management advisor at Advance Trading Inc., thinks farmers will be able to get the crop in the ground without a problem.

“As a trader and a speculator, several times in my career, I’d bet against the American farmer and every time I did it, I lost,” said Grisafi. “I have yet to profit from betting the farmer won’t get the crop planted.”

The drought monitor shows 6 percent of the country is suffering from some type of drought, a record-low. While a drought seems to be far from the minds of farmers, Splitt says situations can change and it doesn’t mean there won’t be dry conditions this summer.

Hear what Grisafi and Splitt say about the near-record short positions and South American crop on U.S. Farm Report above.

Back to news


Spell Check

Williamston, MI
5/5/2017 04:50 PM

  I would look back and see how many years you bet against crop getting planted and see how many of those years the outlook for profit margin was this thin AND insurance plans covered prevented planting as much as it does now. I believe we have planting capacity today more so than many understand; but I think incentive to plant late is lower. I think many intended to plant beans this spring instead of wheat last fall. With forecast not optimal; I wouldn't be surprised to see acres get nipped.

three fortys
cokato, MN
5/5/2017 09:31 PM

  the big question is if we have such a glut of grain on hand and we are going to do the same thing this year my question is why ? less yeild maybe better price? and take the family to a movie and have less stress ! just saying

Dennis Chew
Cayuga, IN
5/5/2017 10:12 PM

  Wake up farmers. You're being replaced by Argentina and Brazilian farmers. Check corn prices. Range bound since November 1. Nice nowing you.


Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer