The bearish news continues to come fast and furious for U.S. soybean farmers as they enter planting season. Acreage estimates are up in the U.S., and South America is awaiting confirmation of yet another bumper crop.
“We are at that level where, as more is harvested, we’re really getting a full grasp on what’s there, and we know it’s huge,” said Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor with the Stewart-Peterson Group, speaking with U.S. Farm Report host Tyne Morgan on Saturday. “That just adds to the record global supplies we have right now. I don’t think anyone cares if they increase it too much more, because we’re already flooded with supplies. That just keeps the market just a little sour right now overall as far as prices go.”
Ted Seifried, chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge Group, joined Blohm and Morgan to discuss the USDA’s April supply and demand numbers. “Beans are going to have a hard time finding that bullish story right now,” he agreed.
Listen to their U.S. Farm Report discussion of the USDA numbers here:
Unfortunately for soybean farmers, that situation may last longer than they would like, especially if rainy, cold weather delays planting and pushes U.S. farmers to switch from corn to soybeans.
“I think [soybeans] could start to get very heavy here, because there’s not really a weather scenario for planting where beans are bullish,” Seifried suggested. “Short of a major truckers’ strike and a huge increase in our export business in the near term, it’s going to be tough to get that bullish story for soybeans. … I’m still really bearish longer term (on soybeans), and I think if you haven’t taken the hedging opportunities already, you’ve got to start doing that now quickly.”
The market has a more optimistic outlook on corn.
“Corn has the ability to be friendly just because it’s going to be really hard to get the supply that we need to keep up with demand, especially if we have the reduced acres,” said Blohm, who believes weather will be a major factor in the market this year.
But corn farmers shouldn’t get too excited just yet.
“Before we get in front of this weather issue and before we start focusing on the next report and new crop, I think we still have old crop ideas to deal with. With the corn carryover above 1.8 million bushels, that’s not overly positive at the moment,” Seifried pointed out. “Although I’m fairly friendly corn down the road, I would not be surprised to see more weakness in the near term.”
Listen to their comments on corn and soybeans here:
Are you just as bearish on soybeans this year? Share your thoughts with fellow farmers on the AgWeb discussion boards.