Last year was rough across farm country, and 2016 looks like it could be challenging as well.
But some analysts also think farmers can expect one solid opportunity to market grain if they pay attention and are ready to act when the opportunity arises.
Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing is one of those analysts who expects to see "a good bounce in the markets" in 2016.
When will this occur? It's hard to predict, of course, but Gold has some ideas.
“It could happen in February or March because of Argentina,” he said. “Or July because of El Nino.”
Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, agreed with Gold's assessments.
“There’s always hidden surprises,” said North, also speaking on AgDay. “One of them we expect to see is weather. So far the winter has put an exclamation point at the end of every statement.”
He believes that macroeconomics could open some doors for U.S. grain, but he notes the abundance of supply right now. “There’s a lot of grain in the country,” North said. “That’s going to hang over our heads for a while. It’s not going to go away overnight.”
“We still have a lot of grain in farmers' hands--corn and soybeans,” Gold said. "And we still have the Argentine situation.”
North cautioned that producers need to be realistic about what a marketing opportunity might look like in the months to come. “We’ve come through some big years, with some big prices, and we’ve gotten our stretched our minds a little bit,” he explained. “Now we have to go back to the mindset of the trade that we saw in the years leading up to the big years.”
Watch the AgDay segment with Gold and North:
What are your marketing expectations for 2016? Let us know in the comments.