Analysts Expect At Least One Good Marketing Opportunity in 2016

January 4, 2016 01:50 PM

Last year was rough across farm country, and 2016 looks like it could be challenging as well.

But some analysts also think farmers can expect one solid opportunity to market grain if they pay attention and are ready to act when the opportunity arises.

Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing is one of those analysts who expects to see "a good bounce in the markets" in 2016.

When will this occur? It's hard to predict, of course, but Gold has some ideas. 

“It could happen in February or March because of Argentina,” he said. “Or July because of El Nino.”

Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, agreed with Gold's assessments. 

“There’s always hidden surprises,” said North, also speaking on AgDay. “One of them we expect to see is weather. So far the winter has put an exclamation point at the end of every statement.”

He believes that macroeconomics could open some doors for U.S. grain, but he notes the abundance of supply right now. “There’s a lot of grain in the country,” North said. “That’s going to hang over our heads for a while. It’s not going to go away overnight.”

Gold agreed.

“We still have a lot of grain in farmers' hands--corn and soybeans,” Gold said. "And we still have the Argentine situation.”

North cautioned that producers need to be realistic about what a marketing opportunity might look like in the months to come.  “We’ve come through some big years, with some big prices, and we’ve gotten our stretched our minds a little bit,” he explained. “Now we have to go back to the mindset of the trade that we saw in the years leading up to the big years.”  

Watch the AgDay segment with Gold and North:

What are your marketing expectations for 2016? Let us know in the comments. 

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Spell Check

Western, NE
1/6/2016 11:23 AM

  Marketing is an every day challenge. Just to play their game, it can cost you $50 to $300 per acre to set a position before you even make a buck in the market. Who's screwing whom? Even if you pay for it, there is no real marketing strategy that anyone can give you to make a buck. Plus have fun explaining to your banker you need $100k in an account for the clearing house to suck from if the market goes against your position. Good luck with that! The oil industry is getting all the hype right now, while production ag is going down the tubes. Don't hear anything about that on the news!

Byron, MN
1/5/2016 05:10 PM

  Bought cheap call and NAU Forward contact policy. Ready to pull the forward contract if price point hit and if price runs back in the money with the calls

Chappell, NE
1/5/2016 06:37 PM

  "Big prices"? Would have been nice if prices had reached parity but never did, now back to Grandpa's mindset for another 40 years.


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