Every forecast that calls for rain, rain, and more rain has farmers and analysts alike questioning the impact on this year’s planting intentions and harvest expectations.
“The weather has thrown a monkey wrench in this whole discussion [of corn acres vs. soybean acres] in my opinion,” said Matt Bennett of Bennett Consulting, speaking on U.S. Farm Report. “…There’s areas in the Midwest and the Dakotas that guys are saying, ‘I’m not going to be able to plant my beans.’ That is something we are going to have to keep a really close eye on.”
Listen to the discussion with Bennett, panelist Tommy Grisafi of Advance Trading, and host Tyne Morgan:
As of USDA's June 14 crop progress numbers, soybeans are slightly behind schedule, with 75% of beans planted compared to the five-year average of 77%. Crop conditions have been holding steady for corn and soybeans, though, with 73% of the corn crop rated as good to excellent and 67% of soybeans as good to excellent.
Growers know that all too well. “Crops (are) going backwards as well as losing crops due to flooding,” an Allen County, Ohio, farmer told AgWeb's Crop Comments section on June 15. “Have had a total of 6.2 inches of rain this past week. Water has been over this field for three days now, with more rain expected. Replant will have to be considered it dries out in time.”
Nearly 700 miles to the west, a farmer in Pottawattamie Country, Iowa, is dealing with the same thing. “7.3 inches of rain since Thursday,” he told AgWeb on June 15. “Fields now have standing water. Loss of yield and (loss of plants) are a certainty.”
It leaves analysts wondering how many bushels of corn and soybeans American farmers will realistically be able to produce this year. "Whatever areas are having a problem this year, it's getting larger," said Grisafi. "But sometimes it take the market awhile to react to that."
“I thought for a long time from an agronomic perspective that there’s a lot of reasons why we’re going to have a really tough time growing a big crop this year,” said Bennett. “Last fall was not a good fall for a lot of people for tillage reasons. A lot of fertilizer didn’t get put on that normally gets put on because of economic reasons, and obviously some hybrid selection issues for certain people were different. I think whenever you look at a wet spring that’s kind of cool in some areas, agronomically, there are a lot of reasons this could be a little bit of an issue.”
Those factors, combined with USDA’s June 30 acreage numbers, could result in higher grain prices, at least temporarily. “If we come in here with lower acres, I think you could be looking at something to finally put a feather in the cap of the corn market,” said Bennett.
How are fields looking in your area? Will you be replanting? Share your thoughts below or with AgWeb's Crop Comments section.