Analysts: No Big Impact on Market from Latest Bird Flu Outbreak

January 19, 2016 07:00 AM
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The recent discovery of avian influenza in Indiana and the resulting depopulation of 400,000 birds will likely only have a negligible impact on the grain and soy markets, just like 2015.

“I think (the 2015 bird flu outbreak) was more psychological to the markets than it was actually really dragging them down,” said Steve Nicholson of Rabobank, speaking on U.S Farm Report on Saturday. “Obviously it impacted local markets and local demand … but I think overall, it just wasn’t a big deal. It was just more psychological pressure on the market.”

Last spring, when bird losses exceeded more than 15 million, the feed losses only added up to 319,000 metric tons, or just .17% of the 193 million metric tons of total U.S. feed usage, according to Dr. Thomas Elam of FarmEcon.

The latest outbreak is also not expected to affect the livestock markets.

“I don’t see a major impact for this at the moment, or moving forward, just like we saw in the summer for hogs (and) for cattle” with the 2015 bird flu epidemic, said Craig VanDyke of Top Third Ag, also speaking U.S. Farm Report. “I think other factors are playing their role there aside from this current new outbreak.”

Watch the U.S. Farm Report segment here:

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