ARC Analysis - A Closer Look at 6 States

ARC Analysis - A Closer Look at 6 States

ARC-CO? ARC-CI? PLC? Some mixture of these? Farmers have been peppering Paul Neiffer, The Farm CPA, with questions about farm bill elections for the past few weeks.

Neiffer co-hosted the second of four Farm Journal Media Farm Bill Decisions webinars March 10, walking through the particulars of each program and answering farmer questions. He ultimately recommended electing PLC on highest-yielding acres first and ARC-CO on lowest-yielding acres first. That said, he did do some digging to look at what ARC payouts might look like in several states.

During the webinar, Neiffer shared his findings from six states in particular:


  • Not many acres will get ARC-CO on corn. There are a few exceptions, however, including Carroll, Jo Daviess, Lee, Mercer and Rock Island counties.
  • Minimal ARC-CO soybean payments, unless prices drop below $9.


  • Several counties could get maximum ARC-CO, assuming corn hits the USDA $3.65 MYA price.
  • Few counties will get any soybean ARC-CO payment.


  • All geographies except south-central counties should get maximum 2014 ARC-CO corn payments ranging from $50 to $85 per acre.
  • Some counties may hit $50 on soybean ARC-CO.


  • Almost every county will get close to maximum ARC-CO corn payments.
  • Several counties will get large soybean ARC-CO payments (up to $70 per acre in some cases).


  • It appears that based on NASS yields, every Minnesota county will get close to maximum ARC-CO corn payments.
  • Many counties will also get large soybean ARC-CO payments.

South Dakota

  • Most counties will get close to maximum corn ARC-CO payments.
  • However, expect minimal soybean ARC-CO payments.

The final two webinars in the Farm Bill Decisions series air March 17 and 24 at 11 a.m. CST. Much of these events will be devoted to conducting an interactive Q&A session. Register today.

For a primer on farm bill choices, visit

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