ASF’s Impact on Protein Demand in China Could Have Long Tail

09:38AM Oct 01, 2019
African Swine Fever
The pork industry continues to grapple with the impact of African Swine Fever. From supply to demand, it's an outbreak that could have a lasting effect. 
( Farm Journal )

The pork industry continues to grapple with the impact of African Swine Fever. From supply to demand, it's an outbreak that could have a lasting effect. 

“I don’t think people really understand the magnitude of the hog supply in China,” said Jayson Lusk, department head and distinguished professor at Purdue University. “The amount of hogs they lost is double the size of the U.S. hog sector, so it’s a big deal and the question is will the Chinese be able to substitute to poultry, beef, and that may be something that’s a little more difficult to reverse.”

The need to find other proteins could be negative for pork, as they'll need to find other proteins to fill their needs. 

“I think they’re going to in the short run, because they don’t really have many other options," he said. 

Lusk says 22% of the U.S. pork supply was exported last year, so countries needing more pork is creating an hopeful opportunity. He says China has an ongoing effort to push people to other sources of protein, but that will need to spark a change in diets and preferences in Asia. 

Hog Market Analysis 093019