The U.S. ag attache in Brazil says the country is poised to continue as the world's top soybean exporter due to potential for a record crop in 2013-14. The attache says increased land planted to soybeans and better genetics lead to its expectations for an 88-MMT crop. It projects Brazilian soybean exports at 45 MMT and says it "should enjoy a slightly better export scenario, as export infrastructures experience less pressure from corn exports."
The attache projects planted soybean area at 29.1 million hectares, up from USDA's current forecast of 28.9 million and above last year's total of 27.7 million.
Regarding improved yield potential, the attache says, "Producers are planting new soybean varieties that should significantly increase yields. As Brazil has traditionally exported 70% of its soybeans to China, new and promising soybean varieties that had been approved in Brazil two years ago were withheld from commercial production until they were approved by China, Brazil’s largest export market... It is being reported that some producers may try the path of planting longer-maturity soybean varieties, skipping a second-crop corn harvest (due to lower prices and returns), in hopes of increasing soybean yields and profits. Such planting trends, however, would impact yields and not soybean planted area."
Exports in 2013-14 of 45 MMT are above USDA"s current forecast of 43 MMT and 2.5 MMT above year-ago. The attache says while no major changes are forecast to export logistics, "the overall corn supply is forecast to decrease and leave less corn for export because farmers are reducing first crop corn area in favor of expanded soybean planting and second crop corn area in favor of expanded second-crop cotton planting."